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Old 05-14-2013, 12:40 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default The Buxton Debate

Byron Buxton is killing it right now and has 8 speed, 8 arm and developing power and patience. What's the problem you say? Nothing, he looks great and appears to be an Eric Davis starter kit.

My problem is his base Bowman autos are going for $110...basically the same as Taveras, and Taveras has dominated against older/better competition.

Is the market saying Buxton > Taveras...if so are you guys buying the hype?

Based on his prices, even if the settle to $80, we are looking at buying buxton above where profar, bogaerts, taveras and other monster names were at the same age.

So is Buxton above elite and on the tier right below Harper/Trout? If he is I can understand buying. For me though l am inclined to watch prices settle and see what he does after a promotion or 2.

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Old 05-14-2013, 12:43 PM   #2 (permalink)
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if so are you guys buying the hype?
Hype basically runs all MKTs.
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Old 05-14-2013, 12:51 PM   #3 (permalink)
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No the market is saying Buxton's cards are newer and more fresh nothing more. Card prices on the secondary market seldomly have anything to do with stats and on field performance. It's all about who is the newest freshest most hyped guy right this minute.

That just happens to be Buxton because from a hobby perspective Tavaras's potential has already been maxed out and he's last years news.
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:03 PM   #4 (permalink)
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too much rational thinking is making my brain hurt.
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:09 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Tools to dream on....production to match so far. Still its just box breakers flipping quick...i dont see a scenarios where his prices go anywhere but down in the next few months
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:20 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Buxton prices will settle in over time. Great time to flip, bad time to buy.
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:21 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Buxton prices will settle in over time. Great time to flip, bad time to buy.
Yep, and if you are buying now, how the heck can they be flipped at these prices?

It's the shiny new toy thing like stated above.
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:26 PM   #8 (permalink)
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i took the wait and see approach on gallo last year too! He was very shiny at the time
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:26 PM   #9 (permalink)
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The market is illogical. Bucton isn't even the best prospect in his own organization. The #1 prospect sells for the Twins sells well, but much less than Buxton. Makes zero cents
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:29 PM   #10 (permalink)
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You're right. That does make zero cents.
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:36 PM   #11 (permalink)
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It is because of all of the new prospectors. The hobby is going away from collecting, and moving to investments. More buyers = higher prices. The trend will probably continue with future prospects and products until the bubble busts and the hobby shifts again.
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:40 PM   #12 (permalink)
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The market is illogical. Bucton isn't even the best prospect in his own organization. The #1 prospect sells for the Twins sells well, but much less than Buxton. Makes zero cents
Pun intended?
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:45 PM   #13 (permalink)
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It is because of all of the new prospectors. The hobby is going away from collecting, and moving to investments. More buyers = higher prices. The trend will probably continue with future prospects and products until the bubble busts and the hobby shifts again.
This combined with the fact that Buxton is the consensus guy. If you're new, lazy (or don't want to spend time pricing), and have money to waste, you buy Buxton. It seems safe to the amateur "prospector" because, hey, everyone is buying him.
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:47 PM   #14 (permalink)
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It is because of all of the new prospectors. The hobby is going away from collecting, and moving to investments. More buyers = higher prices. The trend will probably continue with future prospects and products until the bubble busts and the hobby shifts again.

Adapt or die - I wonder what the next shift will involve.
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:59 PM   #15 (permalink)
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It is because of all of the new prospectors. The hobby is going away from collecting, and moving to investments. More buyers = higher prices. The trend will probably continue with future prospects and products until the bubble busts and the hobby shifts again.
Lots of great points, but this one probably hits the mark the closest. I got into a conversation about cards with a very investment savvy individual a few weeks ago. He assumed baseball cards were still a 'hold for 30 years then sell" type investment. I explained about prospecting, color refractors, grading, rip and flip and he was amazed. The real money is to be made on players who 99% of the world has never heard of.

Investors buy cards now for the very short term investment. Where Buxton's prices are today is really irrelevant compared to where they might be when he gets called up. Where they might be when he makes his first all-star game. Where they might be when he helps the Twins to 5 consecutive World Series championships. Or where they might be when he's a first ballot HOF. The majority of his cards will be bought and sold before he's even out of the minors.

The nature of our hobby is the quick flip investments right now, not long term collecting. So Buxton's prices compared to other prospects shouldn't be taken as "Buxton is better than XXX prospect", it's just a reflection of what the flippers think they can flip Buxton for compared to what the flippers think they can flip XXX prospect for. Price is no longer an indication of talent. Price is an indication of current value compared to tomorrow's expected value. Just like day trading has changed the stock market. No one buys stocks based on the company's long term vision anymore, they buy stocks based on estimations of next week's earnings report. Collectors buy cards based on estimations of next week's BA Top prospect report.
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Old 05-14-2013, 02:19 PM   #16 (permalink)
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All the statements are wrong on Buxton so far on here. The public is much more educated than you think about prospects. Last year at this time, everyone was wondering why people were buying Taveras chrome autos for 50.00 and were very critical of a so called " violent swing " and the fact he had not played above A ball and was bad defensive player with little power. But his cards got even hotter and so did his performance. Buxton was the top guy in the entire draft last year and is playing in the Midwest league this year, a notorious pitchers league that you never see guys right out of high school dominate. Buxton is dominating the league right now. Baseball America and other sites have already said he is now among the top 5 prospects in the game and is now above Miguel Sano as a prospect. This is not the new shinny toy. This is a special talent whose all around game is scary and he is just getting started. Did you notice have fast Correa's cards came down ? That is because he is not playing well and was over hyped. Buxton color ref autos have actually gone UP since release if you look. His high end stuff will not come down as there is a ridiculous number of buyers. His regular chrome auto may come down some because there is a ton of them out there. But, yes this guy is for real and could be a bargain when you look at Bryce Harper's chrome autos and what they started out at.
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Old 05-14-2013, 02:23 PM   #17 (permalink)
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All the statements are wrong on Buxton so far on here. The public is much more educated than you think about prospects. Last year at this time, everyone was wondering why people were buying Taveras chrome autos for 50.00 and were very critical of a so called " violent swing " and the fact he had not played above A ball and was bad defensive player with little power. But his cards got even hotter and so did his performance. Buxton was the top guy in the entire draft last year and is playing in the Midwest league this year, a notorious pitchers league that you never see guys right out of high school dominate. Buxton is dominating the league right now. Baseball America and other sites have already said he is now among the top 5 prospects in the game and is now above Miguel Sano as a prospect. This is not the new shinny toy. This is a special talent whose all around game is scary and he is just getting started. Did you notice have fast Correa's cards came down ? That is because he is not playing well and was over hyped. Buxton color ref autos have actually gone UP since release if you look. His high end stuff will not come down as there is a ridiculous number of buyers. His regular chrome auto may come down some because there is a ton of them out there. But, yes this guy is for real and could be a bargain when you look at Bryce Harper's chrome autos and what they started out at.
See that everybody ... you're all wrong. Bet you didn't know that until just now.
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Old 05-14-2013, 02:23 PM   #18 (permalink)
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All the statements are wrong on Buxton so far on here.
Why don't you tell us how you really feel. LOL
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Old 05-14-2013, 02:32 PM   #19 (permalink)
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until he starts seeing those AA breaking balls we won't know anything other than he can hit a fastball
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Old 05-14-2013, 02:51 PM   #20 (permalink)
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The market is illogical. Bucton isn't even the best prospect in his own organization. The #1 prospect sells for the Twins sells well, but much less than Buxton. Makes zero cents
Go buy Sano. If you don't already own any, you might not know just how horrendous those 2010 BC Autos are. So many scratches, indentions, creases, did I say indentions?

The educated buyer is scared of his raw 2010 BC autos because of the condition issues but his Ref Autos are still close to $150.
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Old 05-14-2013, 02:59 PM   #21 (permalink)
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I happen to remember a prospect named Bubba Starling whose base raw autos stayed between $80-$100 for about a year until he actually started playing. I think the Buxton autos have staying power for a while in the $85-$100 range
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Old 05-14-2013, 03:27 PM   #22 (permalink)
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I happen to remember a prospect named Bubba Starling whose base raw autos stayed between $80-$100 for about a year until he actually started playing. I think the Buxton autos have staying power for a while in the $85-$100 range
As soon as I started reading this thread first name popped in my head was Bubba Starling. Great minds think alike haha
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Old 05-15-2013, 11:16 AM   #23 (permalink)
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My point exactly. He can either continue mashing which will hold his prices. I don't see the likelihood that they are going up soon. No where to go but down....before the settle and begin climbing slowly like normal
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Old 05-15-2013, 11:49 AM   #24 (permalink)
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<---- some people just like to buy cards and don't care about the market......
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Old 05-15-2013, 12:04 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Wait until 2014/15 when the Twins have a top 3 or #1 farm system in BA with Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Baxendale, Meyer, May, Gibson, Walker, etc. He should be very high on the offseason rankings to spike his prices.
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