Blowout Cards Forums
Black Friday 2014

Go Back   Blowout Cards Forums > BLOWOUTS HOBBY TALK > BASEBALL

BASEBALL Post your Baseball Cards Hobby Talk

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-28-2014, 06:53 PM   #1 (permalink)
XL5
Member
 
XL5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 6,361
Default 2014 Topps Retail odds

I compiled the odds for 2014. Since I can't embed google sheets, here's the link to the full 2014 Retail Pack odds:
2013 Topps Series One Retail quickodds | Packodds.com

I only have numbers for the regular retail packs (post your packs in the contest thread if you want to see more SKUs!) but I did a quick manual comparison of comparable cards from in regular retail packs. There may be some others that crosswalk but without seeing the hobby odds I'm not going to assume just yet.

Some numbers with the 2013 cards on the left, 2014 on the right:


(Full 2013 numbers for most SKUs are here)
__________________
Want: 2010 Allen & Ginter N43 relics of Pujols, Markakis, Howard. Want: Konerko high-end, looking for any Konerko 2012 Topps S1 1/1s
My buckets: https://sites.google.com/site/xl5inventory/ My shipping: DC and mailed next business day. My LCSs: Elite Sports Cards, Chicago; Tim's Baseball Card Shop, Chicago

Last edited by XL5; 01-28-2014 at 06:59 PM.
XL5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2014, 06:56 PM   #2 (permalink)
Member
 
death2redemptions's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Previously Banned Member
Posts: 32,247
Default

So now we have proof production has been lowered! Awesom
__________________
FBI profile on death2redemptions from an anonymous E-Bay member:
Unemployed 30-40 year old white suburban window licker who hasn't been laid in years but makes up for in compulsive masturbation. Addictive personality who may have just quit drugs and substitutes with wax and internet chat forums. Antisocial behavior in which he rarely leaves the house to socialize. Financially still supported by his parents. Total loser.
death2redemptions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2014, 07:00 PM   #3 (permalink)
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 349
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by death2redemptions View Post
So now we have proof production has been lowered! Awesom
Hope so!!!!

Last edited by Rooftop; 01-28-2014 at 07:02 PM.
Rooftop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2014, 07:01 PM   #4 (permalink)
Member
 
death2redemptions's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Previously Banned Member
Posts: 32,247
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rooftop View Post
How you figure?
Check out the odds. Much easier to hit the bigger hits this year.
__________________
FBI profile on death2redemptions from an anonymous E-Bay member:
Unemployed 30-40 year old white suburban window licker who hasn't been laid in years but makes up for in compulsive masturbation. Addictive personality who may have just quit drugs and substitutes with wax and internet chat forums. Antisocial behavior in which he rarely leaves the house to socialize. Financially still supported by his parents. Total loser.
death2redemptions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2014, 12:22 AM   #5 (permalink)
XL5
Member
 
XL5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 6,361
Default

Hobby should give a better indication but yeah, looks like lower production.
__________________
Want: 2010 Allen & Ginter N43 relics of Pujols, Markakis, Howard. Want: Konerko high-end, looking for any Konerko 2012 Topps S1 1/1s
My buckets: https://sites.google.com/site/xl5inventory/ My shipping: DC and mailed next business day. My LCSs: Elite Sports Cards, Chicago; Tim's Baseball Card Shop, Chicago
XL5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2014, 01:50 AM   #6 (permalink)
Member
 
phil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,247
Default

Considering you can buy 2013 Series 1 hobby for around 1/2 factory cost now you would hope they lower production a little this year.
phil is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2014, 06:18 PM   #7 (permalink)
Member
 
gradedeflator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 670
Default

Hey guys,

I'm trying to figure out the approximate print run of Trajectory autographs, which has 40 different players in the subset.

I know the numbers above are retail, so not sure how to account for Hobby, but basically if I interpret the numbers above correctly I calculate ~180 of each player's Trajectory auto assuming they were all printed equally. Does this sound right?

math:

total cards per set: 330
Platinum parallel odds: 1 per 20,600 packs
total print run: 6,798,000 packs

trajectory subset: 40 cards
estimated odds: 1 per 960 packs
total number of packs needed to get full set: 38,400 packs

Divided total print run by 38,400 = 177.03

could use some sound math minds to review my logic..

and thanks XL5 for posting the odds!
__________________
Collecting Pedro Martinez, Mike Piazza, Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw and Dodgers prospects!
gradedeflator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2014, 07:25 PM   #8 (permalink)
Member
 
marauder03's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Northern Ohio
Posts: 1,289
Default

You need to consider Jumbo where you get 6 autos a case with 5-6 of them being trajectory. In Hobby alone there is 986700 packs (330 clear x10 per player x 299 pack odds), divide by odds for auto of 568 there are 1737 trajectory autos in hobby cases / 40= 43 per player in Hobby. Jumbo is harder but go with 5 per case 1:11 odds but not sure the print run maybe 4000 cases gives you another 500 per player.

But then some guys have maybe 20 or 25 and others 1000+
__________________
Collect Cavs, Browns, Indians
marauder03 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2014, 07:48 PM   #9 (permalink)
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Beaverton, OR
Posts: 2,273
Default

Can't really use a "per player" calculation since some of them are very SP. Though if you took those out, and then divided that number into the total, it might be pretty close.
__________________
I collect all Oregon State alumni.

Auto accepting 20% off at COMC.
GoBeavs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2014, 04:33 PM   #10 (permalink)
Member
 
death2redemptions's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Previously Banned Member
Posts: 32,247
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gradedeflator View Post
Hey guys,

I'm trying to figure out the approximate print run of Trajectory autographs, which has 40 different players in the subset.

I know the numbers above are retail, so not sure how to account for Hobby, but basically if I interpret the numbers above correctly I calculate ~180 of each player's Trajectory auto assuming they were all printed equally. Does this sound right?

math:

total cards per set: 330
Platinum parallel odds: 1 per 20,600 packs
total print run: 6,798,000 packs

trajectory subset: 40 cards
estimated odds: 1 per 960 packs
total number of packs needed to get full set: 38,400 packs

Divided total print run by 38,400 = 177.03

could use some sound math minds to review my logic..

and thanks XL5 for posting the odds!
You can't really figure out the print run for these because most of the good players have a much lower print run and huge amounts produced of the crappy and average players. For instance, I am positive the Koufax doesn't have a print run of ~180. A player like Koufax probably has a print run around 20-25. Players like Trout and Harper might have a little higher print around (50-99 maybe) and then guys like Chris Archer and Didi Gregorius probably have a print run of over 1,000-1,500. Most of the time franchise Topps products have the autographs tiered.

On a side note, funny it seems just about ALL the top players are redemptions. Maddux, Wright, Harper, Trout, Ripken...all redemption cards. Thanks Topps
__________________
FBI profile on death2redemptions from an anonymous E-Bay member:
Unemployed 30-40 year old white suburban window licker who hasn't been laid in years but makes up for in compulsive masturbation. Addictive personality who may have just quit drugs and substitutes with wax and internet chat forums. Antisocial behavior in which he rarely leaves the house to socialize. Financially still supported by his parents. Total loser.
death2redemptions is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:25 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Friendly URLs by vBSEO
Copyright 2013, Blowout Cards Inc.