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Old 02-17-2014, 12:35 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Reds & Bailey nearing a 6 year $100 million extension

Bailey close to multi-year deal « Mark My Word

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Reds starting pitcher Homer Bailey’s arbitration hearing is slated for Thursday, but it looks like he won’t need to go to Florida to have it. Bailey confirmed Monday morning that he is near to agreeing on a multi-year contract with the Reds.

“It feels like we’re really close,” Bailey said. “That’s all I can say. This whole process has been a long drawn out deal. That’s the way it goes. To say this as confident as I’ve been, yeah, I think so.”

As of last week, there was a large gap in the negotiations but that difference was bridged as a hearing loomed closer.
A report from the Cleveland Plain Dealer said the deal could be worth around $100 million over six years.

Bailey filed for $11.6 million while the Reds had countered at $8.7 million. One year ago, the Reds and Bailey avoided arbitration with a one-year, $5.35 million contract. He said that as the hearing draws closer, he hasn’t been getting more nervous or stressed.
“Not so much. There are a lot of things that we have in place, I think,” Bailey said. “I feel like a majority of it is fairly worked out. It’s some of the little details, I think, that we’re really close with. With us being here and everybody in different time zones, it puts a little bit of a damper on things.”

In 32 starts last season, Bailey was 11-12 with a career-best 3.49 ERA. He achieved career bests in innings (209) and strikeouts (199). On July 2 vs. the Giants at Great American Ball Park, he threw the second no-hitter of his career.
Improvement has come mainly over the last three seasons, as Bailey went a combined 33-29 with a 3.79 ERA. Over the 549 innings that span, he has a 3.40 strikeouts-to-walks, a 1.21 WHIP and 105 ERA+.

How confident is Bailey that a deal might get done soon? He has yet to buy a plane ticket to go to the (arbitration) hearing.

“Not yet. But I also don’t have a suit so I might have to go to Men’s Warehouse today,” Bailey said.
I'd be completely thrilled to keep Homer long term. $100 million is a lot of money but that's pretty much the market rate for a pitcher of Homer's class. Pitchers are EXPENSIVE!
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Old 02-17-2014, 12:49 PM   #2 (permalink)
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A pitcher of Homer's class? Guy is an average pitcher who would be extremely overpaid if he gets this contract. I don't quite see what's special about this guy other then a good number in the K category. Almost same number of W and L's with a small WAR. Oh pleaseeeee
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Old 02-17-2014, 12:56 PM   #3 (permalink)
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100 million dollars for Homer Bailey.

That's insane.
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Old 02-17-2014, 01:11 PM   #4 (permalink)
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A rarely injured workhorse type who has slowly but steadily improved, coming off his best season (AND is just entering the prime of his career), I'd say thats about right. I'd take him over Garza in a heartbeat.
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Old 02-17-2014, 01:18 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Wow. 100 mil for bailey. I'd rather have Santana personally, he costs less.
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Old 02-17-2014, 01:38 PM   #6 (permalink)
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A rarely injured workhorse type who has slowly but steadily improved, coming off his best season (AND is just entering the prime of his career), I'd say thats about right. I'd take him over Garza in a heartbeat.
Exactly. When Bronson Arroyo can get $12 million/year still and AJ Burnett can still get $16 million/year at their ages, it's worth it to lock Bailey up at that rate long term. Bailey has been better than his numbers (which have been solid) the past 2 seasons, but has gotten VERY little run support.

The Reds were 16-16 last season in games that Homer Bailey pitched. In the 16 losses the run support was as follows...

0, 0, 2, 2, 1, 4, 0, 3, 0, 3, 2, 2, 1, 4, 2, 1

Also, Homer's 2013 WHIP of 1.12 was the best among all Reds pitchers since 1995. He turns 28 in May and is just entering the prime of his career. I'm perfectly fine with the contract.
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Old 02-17-2014, 02:52 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Not a good contract for Cincinnati.
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Old 02-17-2014, 03:05 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Not a good contract for Cincinnati.
If Homer Bailey pitched for the Giants, Dodgers, Mets, or any bigger market club with a pitcher-friendly park, his numbers would be off the charts, and this contract would be a bargain, considering his age.

Instead, he puts up good, but not great, numbers in a park that is anything but pitcher-friendly, which makes some wrongly believe this is a bad contract.
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Old 02-17-2014, 03:08 PM   #9 (permalink)
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If Homer Bailey pitched for the Giants, Dodgers, Mets, or any bigger market club with a pitcher-friendly park, his numbers would be off the charts, and this contract would be a bargain, considering his age.

Instead, he puts up good, but not great, numbers in a park that is anything but pitcher-friendly, which makes some wrongly believe this is a bad contract.
If If If If If If If.

If I could throw 100 mph I wouldn't be writing lesson plans right now.

Not saying he isn't a good pitcher, I'm saying he isn't a $100,000,000 pitcher.
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Old 02-17-2014, 03:14 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Exactly. When Bronson Arroyo can get $12 million/year still and AJ Burnett can still get $16 million/year at their ages, it's worth it to lock Bailey up at that rate long term. Bailey has been better than his numbers (which have been solid) the past 2 seasons, but has gotten VERY little run support.

The Reds were 16-16 last season in games that Homer Bailey pitched. In the 16 losses the run support was as follows...

0, 0, 2, 2, 1, 4, 0, 3, 0, 3, 2, 2, 1, 4, 2, 1

Also, Homer's 2013 WHIP of 1.12 was the best among all Reds pitchers since 1995. He turns 28 in May and is just entering the prime of his career. I'm perfectly fine with the contract.
Not sure what you mean ... Cingrani had a 1.10 WHIP last year, so Bailey wasn't even the best on his team in '13. And if you want to quote the poor performance of Cincy offense in the 16 games lost, than you should quote the poor performance of Bailey in some of the 16 games won. It evens out for the most part.

Watching Bailey pitch, he's inconsistent. He shows greatness one start, and then gets lit up by the Athletics the next. If the Reds come through w/ this 16 Million a season deal; more than 80% of their annual, available salary will be locked up by just five players.

Open up the checkbook Bob ... you're gonna have to buy your way out of this one.
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Old 02-17-2014, 03:16 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Not sure what you mean ... Cingrani had a 1.10 WHIP last year, so Bailey wasn't even the best on his team in '13. And if you want to quote the poor performance of Cincy offense in the 16 games lost, than you should quote the poor performance of Bailey in some of the 16 games won. It evens out for the most part.

Watching Bailey pitch, he's inconsistent. He shows greatness one start, and then gets lit up by the Athletics the next. If the Reds come through w/ this 16 Million a season deal; more than 80% of their annual, available salary will be locked up by just five players.

Open up the checkbook Bob ... you're gonna have to buy your way out of this one.
This. I know Bailey can bring it, I was sitting in the stands when he no hit the Pirates. He is just too inconsistent and this is a move that I see hurting the club in the future (although that is fine with me :P)
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Old 02-17-2014, 03:40 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Yowzers! Thats a lot more than I would have thought he would get. Good for him.
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Old 02-17-2014, 04:25 PM   #13 (permalink)
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This, for a guy who would rather be fishing and hunting than playing baseball.
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Old 02-18-2014, 11:24 AM   #14 (permalink)
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This, for a guy who would rather be fishing and hunting than playing baseball.
I'd rather be fishing than doing my job as well.
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Old 02-18-2014, 11:31 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Short of him having an outstanding year, this is a smart deal for him. Draft pick compensation if he just had a normal year would crush his market.
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Old 02-18-2014, 12:12 PM   #16 (permalink)
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You guys are all nuts. Batman is absolutely worth 100 million. He pitches and can save the City? He's underpaid.
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Old 02-18-2014, 12:22 PM   #17 (permalink)
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I'd rather be fishing than doing my job as well.
I assume you don't get paid $100 mil to throw a baseball
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Old 02-18-2014, 01:28 PM   #18 (permalink)
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A pitcher of Homer's class? Guy is an average pitcher who would be extremely overpaid if he gets this contract.
That's the funny part - Even if he is just average (I feel he's above average), this contract is still completely sane. The market these days values a win at about $6-7M, so Bailey would only need to put up about 15 wins worth of value in his next 6 years to justify this contract (even less, when you consider inflation in 6 years).

Fifteen wins over 6 years is almost exactly the definition of an average-slightly above average pitcher, which is what Bailey is currently. When you factor in the fact that he's only 27 and presumably has his peak ahead of him, this isn't a bad contract at all, for either side.
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Old 02-18-2014, 01:53 PM   #19 (permalink)
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That's the funny part - Even if he is just average (I feel he's above average), this contract is still completely sane. The market these days values a win at about $6-7M, so Bailey would only need to put up about 15 wins worth of value in his next 6 years to justify this contract (even less, when you consider inflation in 6 years).

Fifteen wins over 6 years is almost exactly the definition of an average-slightly above average pitcher, which is what Bailey is currently. When you factor in the fact that he's only 27 and presumably has his peak ahead of him, this isn't a bad contract at all, for either side.
I'd love to hear the justification of this.

So you're telling me that as long as Clayton Kershaw wins 31 games over the next 7 seasons - so a whopping 4.5 games a year - that the Dodgers got 200 million + in value?
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Old 02-18-2014, 02:45 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I'd love to hear the justification of this.

So you're telling me that as long as Clayton Kershaw wins 31 games over the next 7 seasons - so a whopping 4.5 games a year - that the Dodgers got 200 million + in value?
I think he meant using WAR, not pitcher wins.

However, he's inflating that cost without proof that's the market rate, and using WAR for a contract seems silly.
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Old 02-18-2014, 02:48 PM   #21 (permalink)
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I think he meant using WAR, not pitcher wins.

However, he's inflating that cost without proof that's the market rate, and using WAR for a contract seems silly.
Interesting - I'm not overly familiar with it (I know it's wins above replacement). I'd find it hard to believe that "15 wins over 6 years", however that is measured, is good justification for a contract.

It wouldn't make any logical sense if I'm following it. It would overvalue mediocre players and make "star" level players seem like bargains.
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Old 02-18-2014, 02:55 PM   #22 (permalink)
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6/100 for Bailey is a good deal for the Reds. Look at the other thread where I posted comps.
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Old 02-18-2014, 03:55 PM   #23 (permalink)
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I think he meant using WAR, not pitcher wins.

However, he's inflating that cost without proof that's the market rate, and using WAR for a contract seems silly.
It might be silly, but what's a better stat to use? ERA? Wins? Strikeouts? I claim that WAR is flawed but is a better stat than any of those.

Finding a specific dollar amount per win is obviously sort of hand-wavy math, but there have been numerous articles produced in recent weeks that all come to the same 6-7M ballpark. An Early Look at the Price of a Win This Off-Season | FanGraphs Baseball is one example.
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Old 02-18-2014, 03:57 PM   #24 (permalink)
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It might be silly, but what's a better stat to use? ERA? Wins? Strikeouts? I claim that WAR is flawed but is a better stat than any of those.

Finding a specific dollar amount per win is obviously sort of hand-wavy math, but there have been numerous articles produced in recent weeks that all come to the same 6-7M ballpark. An Early Look at the Price of a Win This Off-Season | FanGraphs Baseball is one example.
I have no issues with WAR, I have issue with claiming your value of the contract can be correlated through WAR. 1 win is worth a different dollar amount for every team.
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Old 02-18-2014, 04:03 PM   #25 (permalink)
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It wouldn't make any logical sense if I'm following it. It would overvalue mediocre players and make "star" level players seem like bargains.
The issue with the star level players is if you're producing huge numbers when you're still under your rookie contract, then yea, you will be a huge, huge bargain. Look at Mike Trout, or any number of young players who produced out of the gate, like Clayton Kershaw.

Then unless these players get signed to an extension, they'll usually get paid megabucks in free agency; the only problem being that by this time, a lot of these players have already reached their peaks and are on the decline side (e.g. Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, etc).
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