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Old 05-26-2012, 12:14 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default basketball - 2011-12 Panini Past & Present Basketball Hobby 12 Box Case - 2 cases

I busted two (2) cases of 2011-12 Panin Past & Present Basketball Hobby 12 Box Case on Friday, May 19th. NOTHING FOR SALE HERE, all cards except a few scraps have already been sold on my eBay. Here are the results of my break, including a run down of the value that came out of these cases.

Based entirely on my eBay sales, the value coming out of these two cases is right in line with the MAPP pricing for the product.
  • $2400.00 - MAPP cost of 2 cases
  • $2398.00 - Gross Sales as of 5/26/2012 (still have to sell: 9 complete base sets 1-200 and two more small value items ending Sunday - approximately $235 in value - so in fact the gross value coming out of my two cases was MORE than the MAPP pricing)
EDIT 6/9/2012: All sales of product are done and paid, total gross sales was $2646.84. (does not include fees and other costs of selling)

Some of the nicer hits that everyone wants to see right away:
  • Alonzo Mourning Game Used Patch 4/5
  • 2012 Complete XRC Draft Picks Set (redemption) (this is a NON-AUTO set)
  • Kobe Bryant Common Auto (redemption)
  • Andrew Bogut Modern Marks On Card Auto



BASE/INSERTS:

One very nice thing about P&P is the amount of content coming out of a case. For a case breaker like myself, the more content, the more to sell, the better one can do. I think for collectors, it's nice too, sell off the extras you don't want and keep the stuff you do want.
  • Built 12 complete base sets 1-220 ***
  • Built 1 complete Raining 3's insert set 1-20
  • Built 1 complete Fireworks insert set 1-20
  • I was not able to build a master set. (base + all inserts) Collation is not very good in this product. I had many extras in the Breakout and Changing Times inserts, yet I could not build a complete set of either of those.
  • Pulled 17 base variation SP's (this is a 1-50 set, I pulled about 8.5 per case, so odds are you'll find a LeBron base SP in one out of 5-6 cases)
  • Pulled 30 Bread For Life inserts (Red) (set is 1-50)
  • Pulled 70 Bread For Health (Blue) (set is 1-50, I did not complete the set)
  • Pulled 96 Bread For Energy (Yellow) (set is 1-50, I did not complete the set)

AUTO'S:
  • Pulled 1 Modern Marks auto
  • Pulled 4 Breakout Auto's and 2 Common Auto's - so a total of 6 current player auto's in 2 cases
  • Pulled 16 2011-12 XRC Auto redemption's
  • Pulled 7 2012 XRC (non-auto) redemption's, one of them being the complete set
  • Pulled 45 Exclusive Ink auto's

MEMORABILIA:
  • Pulled 22 memorabilia cards, including the Mourning patch pictured above
  • Yes, that means I pulled only 1 patch card out of two cases

*** BASE CARD DISTRIBUTION PROBLEM
There is a very strange thing going on with the base card distribution in a pack. Let me explain:
  • On average, each pack has 7 base cards (out of 8 total) - an occasional pack (1-2 per box if I remember right) will have only 6 base cards and then have two Bread For Life Inserts, or a hit and an insert, etc.
  • On average, in a pack, the first 4 cards are base #1-100. Then the hit. Then 3 more base cards #101-200.
  • That is the problem. There are many more base cards 1-100 in this product than there are 101-200. So in fact, if my case breaks are representative, then the base cards 101-200 are actually SP's! However, maybe other cases have a different distribution of base cards in a pack. Maybe some cases of 4 base cards 101-200 on top, and only 3 base cards 1-100 on the bottom of the pack?
  • Anyway, this discrepancy in base cards caused me to be able to build only 12 complete base sets, and I had about 600 extra base cards that I sold off in a huge lot

Overall, I loved this break, had fun, going to make a small amount of money. Can't ask for much more than that. Thanks for listening.

Last edited by alexlazarevich; 06-09-2012 at 06:51 AM.
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Old 05-26-2012, 12:17 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Thanks for the detailed breakdown. Glad to see you got most of your money back!
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Old 05-26-2012, 12:26 PM   #3 (permalink)
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So you only got 1 Prime patch out of the 2 cases? Was the redemption set considered the other case hit?
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Old 05-26-2012, 12:31 PM   #4 (permalink)
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So you only got 1 Prime patch out of the 2 cases? Was the redemption set considered the other case hit?
Yes, only 1 prime patch out of two cases. I have not seen any case hit promises from Panini on this product so I have no way of knowing what is a case hit or not. Still, I pulled 4 rare cards in 2 cases. (cards pictured above)
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Old 05-26-2012, 12:32 PM   #5 (permalink)
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How much is usually made back during a case break? I have never done one before, and I would really consider it if i could get a large part of my money back.
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Old 05-26-2012, 12:32 PM   #6 (permalink)
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The Alonzo Patch looks like a Nets Patch! Surprising considering he was only there for what 1-2 years?
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Old 05-26-2012, 12:36 PM   #7 (permalink)
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How much is usually made back during a case break? I have never done one before, and I would really consider it if i could get a large part of my money back.
Do NOT be swayed by this decent break. Of course there are many factors involved, but most case breakers lose money. Some do make money, but they have established a business, pay taxes, and can get price breaks on cases that others can't. But even then, it is extremely time consuming and difficult to learn how to case break.

Let me give you an example: less than 5% of my total time spent dealing with Past & present was actually opening packs. 95% of my time is spent sorting, scanning, listing, packing, dealing with customer request, etc. You have to enjoy all aspects of it or else you will get hung up on one facet and you lose money big time.
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Old 05-26-2012, 02:12 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexlazarevich View Post
*** BASE CARD DISTRIBUTION PROBLEM
There is a very strange thing going on with the base card distribution in a pack. Let me explain:
  • On average, each pack has 7 base cards (out of 8 total) - an occasional pack (1-2 per box if I remember right) will have only 6 base cards and then have two Bread For Life Inserts, or a hit and an insert, etc.
  • On average, in a pack, the first 4 cards are base #1-100. Then the hit. Then 3 more base cards #101-200.
  • That is the problem. There are many more base cards 1-100 in this product than there are 101-200. So in fact, if my case breaks are representative, then the base cards 101-200 are actually SP's! However, maybe other cases have a different distribution of base cards in a pack. Maybe some cases of 4 base cards 101-200 on top, and only 3 base cards 1-100 on the bottom of the pack?
  • Anyway, this discrepancy in base cards caused me to be able to build only 12 complete base sets, and I had about 600 extra base cards that I sold off in a huge lot

Overall, I loved this break, had fun, going to make a small amount of money. Can't ask for much more than that. Thanks for listening.
I haven't busted any cases of 10-11 Season Update but am probably close to one case as I purchase the boxes in twos or threes every so often. What you've stated above is very similar to Season Update. The other day I opened 3 boxes and as usual with the first two, base cards 1-100 were the first half and 101-200 were the second half, separated by the hits or inserts. However, the third box was opposite to the first two, giving me more of one half of the set than the other.
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Old 05-26-2012, 05:41 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Wow your Alonzo pulled in 60 more dollars than the last guy that sold one. Do you think that had to do with the patch being nicer? I am getting a Ginobili /5 from a group break and am trying to figure a price out for it.
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Old 05-26-2012, 06:13 PM   #10 (permalink)
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pretty cool getting that draft set redemption, i guess the price you got on it was pretty good since they arent autos. the mourning patch looks to be from some heat jersey because the dark patch part is black & the nets dont have black in their jerseys.

i think if i were you on the products like this that you get a case or more on, with so many base & sorting & all that, unless u really like that yourself, i think id put up an ad at a local high school or something to pay a kid $10 an hour to do all that for you, including putting all the shipping together, itd be worth paying that amount to not have to do it yourself. not to mention you could probably charge $2.49 - $2.99 for shipping and make a little more money that way. with all the 'handling' that goes into a product like this you couldnt be blamed for making an extra buck or so per auction. or if u live by u of i, put up an ad there. i would say its something you can put on your resume too

if i had a decent job and was opening cases with tons of base & low priced stuff, theres no way id wanna do all that shipping work myself. but at least in this instance your gonna be about even, before the 25% or more fees kick in anyway, including s&h.

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Old 05-26-2012, 06:21 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Alex, you really lucked out with your two cases. I busted one and didn't pull any patches, Modern Mark on card autos and only got one of the common signatures (which are the base set cards autographed, George Gervin). You really lucked out with the complete redemption set ticket too. My base coalition was about the same as yours (weird), so based on what you pulled and what I pulled, my best estimation is that: the common signatures are 1 per case, the patches are 1 per every other case, same goes for the Modern Marks autos 1 per every other.

How many of the base SP variations did you pull? I got 5 out of my 1 case, figured those fall about 1 per every 2.5 boxes.
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Old 05-26-2012, 06:43 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by joceltics34 View Post
Wow your Alonzo pulled in 60 more dollars than the last guy that sold one. Do you think that had to do with the patch being nicer? I am getting a Ginobili /5 from a group break and am trying to figure a price out for it.
I don't see another Mourning patch from P&P that's either been sold or listed?

Either way, overseas buyers typically pay more for NBA cards than Americans will. I also charge very reasonable overseas shipping rates ($3.50 Canada, $4.50 Worldwide) and provide free combined shipping. That seems to keep them coming back for more.
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Old 05-26-2012, 06:59 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by inopethflames View Post
i think if i were you on the products like this that you get a case or more on, with so many base & sorting & all that, unless u really like that yourself, i think id put up an ad at a local high school or something to pay a kid $10 an hour to do all that for you, including putting all the shipping together, itd be worth paying that amount to not have to do it yourself. not to mention you could probably charge $2.49 - $2.99 for shipping and make a little more money that way. with all the 'handling' that goes into a product like this you couldnt be blamed for making an extra buck or so per auction. or if u live by u of i, put up an ad there. i would say its something you can put on your resume too

if i had a decent job and was opening cases with tons of base & low priced stuff, theres no way id wanna do all that shipping work myself. but at least in this instance your gonna be about even, before the 25% or more fees kick in anyway, including s&h.
Past & Present was an easy break. I was able to do it in my spare time. As long as I keep a low-end break to ~8,000 cards or less, I can pull it off and not miss work and still have a normal life. With higher end it's much easier since there's less of everything. But this model limits me from doing 10-20 cases of Bowman. If I do that many cases, then I have to take 1-2 weeks off and pull 8-12 hour days working on cards. But there's already so many good baseball multi-case breakers out there, brentandbecca, go_steelers07, etc. the market doesn't really need me in there.

I do have a full time job in computers at the U of I. And I'm sure I can find help like you say. But I would have a very hard time hiring out help. I think breakers like brentandbecca have to hire help, get free help, or whatever he does. But if you look at some of his auctions you can tell, scans aren't that great, no scans of card backs, sometimes there's multiple items in the scans, descriptions can have errors, etc. I have just enough OCD, I guess, to try and make my listings stand out in a good way. If I hire out help that's going to drop off. That'll have to happen if I expand the business, but until then I'm pretty comfortable with the work.
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Old 05-26-2012, 07:09 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Alex, you really lucked out with your two cases. I busted one and didn't pull any patches, Modern Mark on card autos and only got one of the common signatures (which are the base set cards autographed, George Gervin). You really lucked out with the complete redemption set ticket too. My base coalition was about the same as yours (weird), so based on what you pulled and what I pulled, my best estimation is that: the common signatures are 1 per case, the patches are 1 per every other case, same goes for the Modern Marks autos 1 per every other.

How many of the base SP variations did you pull? I got 5 out of my 1 case, figured those fall about 1 per every 2.5 boxes.
I pulled 17 total base variation SP's in 2 cases. I really like what Panini did with these cards. SP'd just enough to make them sought after.

I did have a real nice break. I had 3 $100+ pulls: Mourning patch, Kobe auto, complete 20122 non-auto XRC set. If you look at the other patches that have been pulled, mine was the best available at the time of the sale.

However, even if you take out those 3 cards, the gross sales coming out of my 2 cases would still be 80%+ of MAPP value. That is excellent. Those 2011 auto'd XRC's are selling in the $30-$30 range, and if you pull a low #'d 2012 non-auto XRC that can sell in the $100 range. And some of the elusive ink auto's will go for $20-$30. The Raining 3's and Fireworks inserts are very popular too and selling amazingly well for non SP insert cards.

Sure my 3 big pulls helped put me into the green, but even without them, this product is doing amazingly well. The demand for NBA cards is strong, especially since supply has been very low, not sure what else there is too it?
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Old 05-26-2012, 07:11 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Thanks so much for this write-up. Very educational. I appreciate you taking the time to share!
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Old 05-26-2012, 07:11 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Ah, well, two things I see wrong with his listing:

1) He didn't put "patch" in his title. That's why his card didn't show up in my search!
2) He doesn't ship overseas. My buyer was overseas, Australians love NBA cards.
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Old 05-26-2012, 10:13 PM   #18 (permalink)
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I don't see another Mourning patch from P&P that's either been sold or listed?

Either way, overseas buyers typically pay more for NBA cards than Americans will. I also charge very reasonable overseas shipping rates ($3.50 Canada, $4.50 Worldwide) and provide free combined shipping. That seems to keep them coming back for more.
Right on. Here is the link to the other one just for reference.

2012 PANINI PAST & PRESENT ALONZO MOURNING GAME WORN JERSEY PRIME #/5 3 COLORS | eBay
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Old 05-26-2012, 11:24 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Congrats on the break Alex! As usual, very informative.

I don't have the testicular fortitude to break Panini basketball. To come out even is very unusual from their products, and I think this is possible only if you are able to buy directly from Panini or get a break from distributors AND have a good reputation that commands premium pricing as Alex does. Anyone hoping to make money when purchasing at MAPP prices (taking into account shipping and ebay/paypal fees) is asking for some serious hurt.

And as for overseas shipping, I don't have the backbone to do it without expedited shipping (30+ dollars), and nobody overseas wants to pay that unless it is for a premium card.
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Old 05-26-2012, 11:33 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I don't understand how you say you are making your money back on these boxes. (i'm not saying this as a accusation, i'm asking you a question basically). You said even if you take out the kobe, mourning and set redemption, you were still making 80%??

1 redemption per box -average $30

2 elusive autos per box- average $10 each

1 jersey- average $7

that's only $57 back. How did you get an another almost $25 out of each box? There is not 1 base set per box (i bought 3 and didn't even get a full base set) and only a couple of $1, $2, $3 inserts, if that per box.


How are you recouping the rest of the money? Just wonder if your using a certain formula, or average or percenatge or what?


Don't get me wrong, i love the product and am trying to collect the elusive autos, but there has not been a single box (out of 3) that i came near making my money back. And i even pulled a Kevin love modern marks auto.
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Old 05-27-2012, 01:59 AM   #21 (permalink)
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Check out my completed auctions (minus auto's, jersey's, patches and XRC's):

alexlazarevich cardboardaddict | eBay

Not included in those completed items are 3 base sets I've already sold at an average of $42.50 each. I also still have 9 base sets for sale in BIN/BO.

As you can see from those completed auctions, when a product is new, collectors will pay good money for base lots and inserts, and base SP's, etc. Once a product is 1-2 weeks old, demand for base/inserts dies down significantly and prices will fall as well.

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Originally Posted by JOHNJOHNNY View Post
I don't understand how you say you are making your money back on these boxes. (i'm not saying this as a accusation, i'm asking you a question basically). You said even if you take out the kobe, mourning and set redemption, you were still making 80%??

1 redemption per box -average $30

2 elusive autos per box- average $10 each

1 jersey- average $7

that's only $57 back. How did you get an another almost $25 out of each box? There is not 1 base set per box (i bought 3 and didn't even get a full base set) and only a couple of $1, $2, $3 inserts, if that per box.


How are you recouping the rest of the money? Just wonder if your using a certain formula, or average or percenatge or what?


Don't get me wrong, i love the product and am trying to collect the elusive autos, but there has not been a single box (out of 3) that i came near making my money back. And i even pulled a Kevin love modern marks auto.
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Old 05-27-2012, 02:12 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wesnilevirus View Post
To come out even is very unusual from their products, and I think this is possible only if you are able to buy directly from Panini or get a break from distributors AND have a good reputation that commands premium pricing as Alex does. Anyone hoping to make money when purchasing at MAPP prices (taking into account shipping and ebay/paypal fees) is asking for some serious hurt.
You are absolutely correct with this. In my break, I posted "gross" profit. That does NOT include any costs at all. No fees are included in that number. However, that number does represent the true value coming out of a case, because that is what buyers are paying. But yes, in reality, not ALL that gross profit is going to me, some of it is going to eBay, some of it to USPS, and then the remainder to me.

I'm not posting to try and convince people to break cases for profit. I'm trying to be clear in saying that is NOT a good idea for the average person to do it, especially with Panini NBA products. I'm just posting to show factual results of a break, good or bad. I'm busting 4 cases of Panini Limited NBA later in June, I'll post results of that as well. That could be a real kick in the junk.
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Old 05-27-2012, 02:27 AM   #23 (permalink)
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Great rundown. It's nice to see what actually comes out of a product like this. Those sets really do add up and I'm shocked someone is even close to breaking even on a product with so few "big" hits. Can't wait to see what Limited puts out this year too, like you said it could be brutal, but a card or two could pay for an entire case. Good luck man!
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Old 05-27-2012, 02:33 AM   #24 (permalink)
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Hey, how do you know which cards are SP and which ones aren't???
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Old 05-27-2012, 02:39 AM   #25 (permalink)
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The back of the card is horizontal, all the regular commons are vertical.
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