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Old 02-04-2013, 11:41 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Hit rates and all other figures of 2012-13 Prizm

One of the reasons why I am not a big fan of Panini is because they don’t publish the hit rates of their inserts. But if they think they can keep it secret, they are wrong. I calculated them myself

For everyone who wants to know how many boxes you theoretically need to buy to hit a Gold Prizm and for everyone who wants to know how many copies there are of the Prizm Refractors…


Just a quick word on how I calculated all this:
I collected basic data of almost 1000 2012-13 Panini Prizm Hobby box breaks which I found on various websites. Don't worry, it sounds like a lot of work, but it wasn't. Eventually I decided to base my calculations mainly on the data of case breaks, because the data of the separate box breaks was too much influenced by the fact that people, not surprisingly, were more likely to post their break if they had hit a big card, in this case a Gold Prizm.
Eventually, I could use 48 Prizm case breaks to do my calculations.

I will not go into deep detail here about the calculations, but if anyone is interested, just let me know.


TOTAL PRODUCTION
All calculations that I did, mainly based on the insert rate of the Gold Prizms and Autograph Prizms in the 48 case breaks, point towards a production of 1500 cases, 18000 boxes or 360000 packs of 2012-13 Panini Prizm Hobby.

GOLD PRIZMS /10
400 different Gold Prizm cards (300 base, 38 Finalists, 25 MVP, 25 Downtown Bound and 12 USA Basketball), so 4000 Gold Prizm cards in total. On average 2.67 Gold Prizms per case or a hit rate of 1:90 packs.

The 300 Base Gold Prizms come on average exactly 2 per case, at a hit rate of 1:120 packs.
The 100 Insert Gold Prizms come 0.67 per case, at a hit rate of 1:360 packs.
Finalists Prizms 1:947 packs.
MVP Prizms & Downtown Bound Prizms 1:1440 packs.
USA Basketball Prizms 1:3000 packs.

AUTOGRAPH PRIZMS /25
It turns out that Autograph Prizms are not only inserted in the Hobby boxes, but also in the Retail boxes. My data showed that every case held about 1.067 AU Prizms, or a hit rate of 1:225 packs, whereas the hit rate would have been 1:144 packs (or 1.67 per case) if all 2500 Autograph Prizm cards (100*25) would have been inserted in the Hobby boxes.
This would roughly mean that 1600 of the 2500 AU Prizms are inserted in Hobby and 900 are reserved for Retail.

BASE PRIZMS
As you know, the Prizms or Refractors in this product do not have a serial number.
Interestingly, almost every box of 2012-13 Panini Prizm contains exactly 3 Base Prizms. About 1 box out of 10 has 2 or 4 Base Prizms, but this equals out in the end. Base Prizm therefore has a hit rate of 1:6.7 packs.
This also means that there are 180 Prizms copies of every Base card!

INSERT SETS PRIZMS
This was hard to calculate because the data set was very limited. Therefore I can only give an indication of the rates for the 4 sets of Insert Prizms together (MVP, Downtown Bound, USA Basketball and Finalists). Insert Prizms have a hit rate of 1:60 packs (or 1:3 boxes) and that would mean that the Prizm Insert cards are limited to 60!

GREEN PRIZMS
Yeah, I would also like to know how many copies of the Green Prizms are out there. Unfortunately it is not possible to calculate this. There are no cards with a serial number in the 2012-13 Panini Prizm Retail boxes, so it is impossible to calculate how many boxes are produced (or will be produced!).
Just for your reference: it seems that there are 3-3.5 Green Prizms per box. That would mean a hit rate of 1:7-1:8 retail packs.
For the same reason it is not possible to calculate the total number of produced Base, Autograph and Insert sets.

Thanks for the read! Let me know if there are more numbers you would like to know.

Edit: info on Autograph Prizms /25 updated

Last edited by KarlHungus; 02-05-2013 at 03:37 AM. Reason: Updated figures for AU Prizms
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Old 02-04-2013, 02:00 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Kool did u create an account just to post this?
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Old 02-04-2013, 02:13 PM   #3 (permalink)
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appreciate the info
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Old 02-04-2013, 02:41 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crazymj View Post
Kool did u create an account just to post this?
I would thank him 3 times if he did. Very cool info.
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Old 02-04-2013, 04:28 PM   #5 (permalink)
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very cool. i wish they would have made the base prizm/refractors numbered if it woulda been 199 or lower. also looks like the base prizms should sell for more than the greens (about the same odds, hobby more expensive than retail, and retail with potential overproduction), but clearly that's not the case.
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Old 02-04-2013, 05:16 PM   #6 (permalink)
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If you consider 1500 cases of Hobby production, what would you think the retail production would be?

If you figure all greens were created in equal quantities, then based on cases produced the greens proabably fall somewhere in here (sorry if the formatting is off):

Green Prizm Odds
Cases 1:8 1:6
500 75 100
700 105 140
1000 150 200
1200 180 240
1500 225 300
2000 300 400
2500 375 500
Print Run
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Old 02-04-2013, 05:22 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Nice work. Thanks for sharing.
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Old 02-04-2013, 06:53 PM   #8 (permalink)
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3 boxes 1 gold prizm only did a box today no colors... maybe its just me.
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Old 02-04-2013, 10:31 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crazymj View Post
Kool did u create an account just to post this?
Not really, just didn't have anything interesting to post until now


Quote:
Originally Posted by mr10pin View Post
If you consider 1500 cases of Hobby production, what would you think the retail production would be?
I have no clue whatsoever about the Retail production. It probably takes an insider to give an idea about normal Retail production.

But the fact that Panini can produce unlimited Retail boxes, means the following:
Green Prizms are popular
=> Prizm Retail is a huge success
=> Panini will produce more Prizm Retail (more Green Prizms)
=> Green Prizms will become less and less scarce
So, in theory, the value of Green Prizms can drop, caused by its popularity

Gold Prizms, AU Prizms, Base Prizms and Insert Prizms are limited and will never get less scarce than they are now. Popularity will only make their value go up.
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Old 02-04-2013, 10:41 PM   #10 (permalink)
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OP, thanks very much for posting this. In your first post you added more value to the BO community than 90% of us ever have (myself included in the "no value" group). I hope you stick around!!
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Old 02-05-2013, 12:04 AM   #11 (permalink)
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refractor auto /25 is in retail as well.
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Old 02-05-2013, 12:32 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
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refractor auto /25 is in retail as well.
Please send me a link to a break where this has happened. Thanks.
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Old 02-05-2013, 12:43 AM   #13 (permalink)
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I can confirm refractor autos in retail. I pulled one and have seen others on here.
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Old 02-05-2013, 12:49 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Yea, 3rd to confirm ref autos do show up in retail just not often from all the breaks I've read.
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Old 02-05-2013, 03:38 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Thanks guys, I wasn't aware of that. I haven't seen a detailed description of what is in the Retail boxes as, obviously, none are sold here in China. If anyone has a scan of the back of a pack or a box, please send it over to me - would be much appreciated.

It does make sense, actually, because my data showed a much lower hit rate for AU Prizms compared to what I had estimated.
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Old 02-05-2013, 05:03 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Sorry guys, I can't stop now. Thanks to a few very useful replies here in the thread, I have found a possible way to calculate the print run of the Green Prizms

First of all a big thanks to the guys who pointed out that Prizm Retail also contains Autograph Prizms /25. I have updated my initial post with this information.
I now estimate that about 1600 of the 2500 Autograph Prizms /25 were inserted in the Hobby product, while 900 seemed to be reserved for the Retail product. Let’s see if we can derive anything from these numbers for the Green Prizms…

AUTOGRAPH PRIZMS /25 in Retail Boxes
They seem hard to pull, that is clear. I collected data of 30 (complete) Retail box breaks and there was no mentioning of any AU Prizms /25 pulled (when I do the calculations I only collect data from case and box breaks because I believe data from individual pack breaks will not give good figures).
With a quick search on this forum, though, I found confirmation of at least 5 AU Prizms /25 pulled.

Here I need to make a guess as it seems impossible to calculate the insert rate of these cards in Retail. They were inserted at 1:225 packs (or 1:1350 cards) in Hobby and it doesn’t look like they are inserted at a higher rate in Retail. So let’s follow two theories here.

1) Insert rate of 1:225 packs
With 900 AU Prizms inserted, this would mean that 202500 packs or 8437.5 boxes of Prizm Retail were produced.

2) Insert rate of 1:1350 cards
With 900 AU Prizms inserted, this would mean that 1215000 cards or 303750 packs or 12656.25 boxes or Prizm Retail were produced.

GREEN PRIZMS
The 30 Retail box breaks that I found, contained a total of 102 Green Prizms, or 3.4 per box, that is a hit rate of 1:7.06 packs. The data shows no difference in hit rate for the Base Green Prizms and the Insert Green Prizms.

Now we’ll put two and two together.
Theory 1: At this hit rate 8437.5 boxes would contain a total of 28687.5 Green Prizms, or 71.72 Green Prizm copies of every card.

Theory 2: At this hit rate 12656.25 boxes would contain a total of 43031.25 Green Prizms, or 107.58 Green Prizm copies of every card.

What does this all mean?
If Prizm Retail has a limited print (no extra production because of popularity) and Panini has inserted all of the Autograph Prizms /25 which were not inserted in the Hobby boxes, in the Retail Prizms at an average insert rate, then the Green Prizm cards are probably limited to somewhere between 70 and 110.

I think this is the only way to make an estimation of the number of Green Prizms, based on hit rates.

If Panini uses no average insert rates whatsoever, or different insert rates for different lots, then (and this is very likely) we'll be guessing for ever.

It has to be said that by not publishing the hit rates, Panini has a lot of freedom to insert their cards however they want it. I don't like it, because they can use it to their advantage and it feels like they are trying to fool us.
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Old 02-05-2013, 08:31 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Excellent post. Welcome to the forums!
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Old 02-05-2013, 11:05 AM   #18 (permalink)
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I thought at one point Panini announced that the greens would fall at 1:10 packs.
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Old 02-05-2013, 07:59 PM   #19 (permalink)
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i hope greens are limited in the 1-100 range
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Old 02-05-2013, 08:53 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I hate to ask a stupid question but I broke a box and couldn't tell the base from the reflectors is there an easy way to tell.
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Old 02-05-2013, 09:46 PM   #21 (permalink)
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awesome. Well done my friend
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