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Old 06-13-2012, 01:57 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default where do you think James Harden will play next year?

I'd love for my city, the Bobcats to get him, but I doubt he would want to play for worst team in the league, no matter how much money MJ throws at him...

Your thoughts?
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Old 06-13-2012, 01:58 PM   #2 (permalink)
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He will stay in OKC
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Old 06-13-2012, 02:00 PM   #3 (permalink)
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He will stay in OKC
I think he will stay as well, sounds like a very loyal guy but I just dont think they will be able to keep ibaka as well.....
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Old 06-13-2012, 02:05 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I sure hope he stays in OKC, Thunder all the way baby!
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Old 06-13-2012, 02:08 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I think OKC will be able to keep both. They work seemlessly as a unit, not so much if you take them away from each other.

With the revenue home court in the Finals adds to the OKC coffers, I can't see them NOT shelling out a decent amount of cash to keep both guys playing.
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Old 06-13-2012, 02:08 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I think he will stay in OKC, but I'm sure the money will be very tempting on him to leave. He seems to love his 6th man role in OKC though.
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Old 06-13-2012, 02:11 PM   #7 (permalink)
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He would be stupid to leave. We're looking at the future NBA champs for the next decade right here.
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Old 06-13-2012, 02:16 PM   #8 (permalink)
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He would be stupid to leave. We're looking at the future NBA champs for the next decade right here.
Yeah, if he leaves for the money I'd be really surprised. He seems like a great guy that loves playing with the Thunder. Oh ya and they're pretty good. He's already getting millions, he doesn't need more
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Old 06-13-2012, 03:03 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Like most 6th men, he would probably be overpaid by another team and suck if he leaves OKC

But OKC need to sign Iblocka for sure
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Old 06-13-2012, 03:05 PM   #10 (permalink)
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The Rockets!!! I think he will stay with the Thudner, but I would love if he came to the Rockets.
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Old 06-13-2012, 03:09 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Doesn't Harden/Ibaka still have a year on his contract left?

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Old 06-13-2012, 03:09 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Temptation allways dominate
unless okc increases ticket prices
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Old 06-13-2012, 03:40 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Harden is under contract next year. He will hit RFA the year after. The Thunder have the right to match any tender he signs with another team. The absolute earliest he would ever be able to leave would be 2014-15.

It's all irrelevant as OKC is going to pay him whatever it takes to retain him.
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Old 06-13-2012, 03:41 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Ok Harden may stay in OKC but like someone above said, OKC may not be able to keep both Harden and Ibaka. I'd be happy if Charlotte could get Ibaka at least!
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Old 06-13-2012, 03:52 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by LeonfromNC View Post
Ok Harden may stay in OKC but like someone above said, OKC may not be able to keep both Harden and Ibaka. I'd be happy if Charlotte could get Ibaka at least!
That's a more realistic desire. If you are of the opinion that OKC won't (as opposed to the incorrect "can't") keep both Harden and Ibaka, I could see the Thunder making a trade built around Ibaka for the #2 pick and taking Thomas Robinson.

With the way the raises kick in, I think the most likely scenario is the Thunder keep Harden and Ibaka, move Perkins after next year (whatever it takes to save money: trade/buyout/waive/etc.), and go somewhat into the luxury tax.
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Old 06-13-2012, 04:00 PM   #16 (permalink)
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That's a more realistic desire. If you are of the opinion that OKC won't (as opposed to the incorrect "can't") keep both Harden and Ibaka, I could see the Thunder making a trade built around Ibaka for the #2 pick and taking Thomas Robinson.

With the way the raises kick in, I think the most likely scenario is the Thunder keep Harden and Ibaka, move Perkins after next year (whatever it takes to save money: trade/buyout/waive/etc.), and go somewhat into the luxury tax.
I mean I know Jordan's a horrible owner but the 2nd pick for a package built around ibaka??? They think they have an ibaka in the making with biyambo anyways....but to your point (and mostly joking) considering the way Jordan drafts he might should consider it...but I mean you could get way more for the. #2 pick than ibaka...
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Old 06-13-2012, 04:14 PM   #17 (permalink)
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I mean I know Jordan's a horrible owner but the 2nd pick for a package built around ibaka??? They think they have an ibaka in the making with biyambo anyways....but to your point (and mostly joking) considering the way Jordan drafts he might should consider it...but I mean you could get way more for the. #2 pick than ibaka...
In a vacuum, I wouldn't even consider trading Ibaka for the #2 pick in this draft, as that would be laughable. The Nets gave up, what, #6 for an expiring Gerald Wallace? If the Bobcats could get more for #2 than Ibaka, they would be moronic not to pursue that all else being equal.

However, Rich Cho is running (until the heavy hand of MJ chooses to get involved) the Bobcats now, and he won't improve the team until he has the right piece or pieces in place. The worst thing you can do is get mediocre fast.

Side note, Ibaka is and has always been on another planet than Biyombo from both a talent and production standpoint. People just draw the comparison and assume they're similar, because they're both from the Congo. Biyombo has never had the ball-handling or shooting ability Ibaka has, and Ibaka is a better shot blocker (although Biyombo actually had a statistically better rookie year blocking shots). Biyombo just rode the Ibaka hype wave.
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Old 06-13-2012, 05:02 PM   #18 (permalink)
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If I'm not mistaken, isn't Cho the GM who drafted Durant and started rebuilding the Thunder???? if this is true, I only hope that he can do the same for Charlotte... although the Sonics had much better pieces to work with more so that Charlotte will ever have.
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Old 06-13-2012, 05:28 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Cho worked for the Sonics/Thunder and got as high as Asst. GM before becoming the GM of Portland for one year and then moving on to Charlotte. He's more of a strategy/financial type of executive, but he'll no doubt have solid basketball people around him. During his one year on the job, he suggested to Paul Allen that the best course of action would be to blow up the team, and he was fired because of it. One year later, the Blazers are in rebuilding mode.

Cho won't look for a quick fix with the Bobcats, I'm sure of that. They were unlucky to lose out on the #1 pick in an essentially one-player draft. I would assume given Cho's history with Seattle/OKC, that the Bobcats will try and go the OKC route. As there isn't a KD-type superstar on the roster, I don't think they'll be looking to make any major salary commitments, yet. My best guess is they trade #2 in this draft for some combo of moving back in this draft and acquiring 1st round picks in the future.
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Old 06-13-2012, 05:32 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Sometimes owners should just let GM's do their job...
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Old 06-13-2012, 05:39 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by gamboooler View Post
Harden is under contract next year. He will hit RFA the year after. The Thunder have the right to match any tender he signs with another team. The absolute earliest he would ever be able to leave would be 2014-15.

It's all irrelevant as OKC is going to pay him whatever it takes to retain him.
I wouldn't say irrelevant at all.

They can't just pay him whatever it takes with the new CBA.

Lets say Harden and Ibaka both want $12 million a year (and I'd bet both might get offered more elsewhere)

You'd be looking at a total payroll of around 85 million bucks - which is going to be 15 million or so over the tax threshold.

Assuming they aren't repeat offenders (I'm pretty sure they aren't) that's an additional $26 million a year in tax.

Is Clay Bennett going to fork over $110 million a year to keep Harden and Ibaka?

Even if you say they let Ibaka walk free and clear - you're still going to be paying 73 million in payroll + an additional 5 million or more in luxury tax - and that's letting Ibaka just walk away.

If Harden gets close to a max contract offer, which he might, they'll probably have to let him go.
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Old 06-13-2012, 06:30 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by gamboooler View Post
Cho won't look for a quick fix with the Bobcats, I'm sure of that. They were unlucky to lose out on the #1 pick in an essentially one-player draft. I would assume given Cho's history with Seattle/OKC, that the Bobcats will try and go the OKC route. As there isn't a KD-type superstar on the roster, I don't think they'll be looking to make any major salary commitments, yet. My best guess is they trade #2 in this draft for some combo of moving back in this draft and acquiring 1st round picks in the future.
I think this is the best review of what Charlotte will do; good calls.
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Old 06-13-2012, 06:33 PM   #23 (permalink)
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I wouldn't say irrelevant at all.

They can't just pay him whatever it takes with the new CBA.

Lets say Harden and Ibaka both want $12 million a year (and I'd bet both might get offered more elsewhere)

You'd be looking at a total payroll of around 85 million bucks - which is going to be 15 million or so over the tax threshold.

Assuming they aren't repeat offenders (I'm pretty sure they aren't) that's an additional $26 million a year in tax.

Is Clay Bennett going to fork over $110 million a year to keep Harden and Ibaka?

Even if you say they let Ibaka walk free and clear - you're still going to be paying 73 million in payroll + an additional 5 million or more in luxury tax - and that's letting Ibaka just walk away.

If Harden gets close to a max contract offer, which he might, they'll probably have to let him go.
The choice between Harden or Ibaka is going to be Harden. That's why thinking Harden will become available is a pipe dream.

Here's how I think it will happen in 2013-14:
Committed to 50 million (Durant, Westbrook, Perkins, Thabo, Collison).
Commit 26 million to Harden and Ibaka.
Figure out how to dump Perkins, subtract 8 million.
Pick up option on Aldrich, add 3 million.
Trade either Maynor or Jackson (likely Maynor), net add 1 million.
Have Pleiss under contract, add $3 million.
Let Cook expire.
Fill out the rest with minimum vets and draft picks, roughly 5 million.

Total of 80 million with Harden and Ibaka on the roster. Even if the cap/tax doesn't increase as time progresses, that's $10 million over, or a $15 million penalty, bringing the total to 95 million. We're talking about an ownership group that overpaid for their team and paid the city off millions of dollars to get out of a lease one year early. They didn't get in it to make money, and the prospect of a dynasty will probably get them to spend.

So 95 million is the ceiling IMO. If they trade Ibaka for a cheaper replacement player, they could shed an additional 9 million from their payroll, and reduce their overall expenditures to 72 million. They could keep Ibaka, sell their draft picks, trade Aldrich, and fill the roster out completely with minimum vets. That would probably bring their total down to 75 cap/80 tax and offset the tax price by 2-3 million every other year when they sell their pick. The role players will be a revolving door of draft picks and min vets. Even if they get stuck with Perkins, they can move Ibaka and still be in that 80 million range.

Basically it's just what they're willing to spend. The floor is 70 million without Ibaka and the ceiling is 95 million with the majority of the role players/draft picks in tact. No one knows how much ownership is willing to spend, but if you look at their history, I would lean towards they're willing to spend to win. They're not going to lose money just to lose it. But they have a chance to take a real place in history over the next 5 years.
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Old 06-13-2012, 10:32 PM   #24 (permalink)
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I don't see Both Harden and Ibaka staying. It will be hard for OKC to get Perkins picked up for 8 Mil off the back of his season imo.

I think they will do what they can, but think the $$$ wins over rings every time!

Quote:
Originally Posted by tajikey View Post
I think OKC will be able to keep both. They work seemlessly as a unit, not so much if you take them away from each other.

With the revenue home court in the Finals adds to the OKC coffers, I can't see them NOT shelling out a decent amount of cash to keep both guys playing.
The finals series is 2,3,2 format so the home court issue is only applicable if it goes to 6+ games.
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Old 06-13-2012, 10:37 PM   #25 (permalink)
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That's more then $95 million - its a sliding scale - its closer to $97 million - and that's with a 70 base that will probably drop. It's also assuming they aren't repeat offenders - that I didn't look into.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gamboooler View Post
The choice between Harden or Ibaka is going to be Harden. That's why thinking Harden will become available is a pipe dream.

Here's how I think it will happen in 2013-14:
Committed to 50 million (Durant, Westbrook, Perkins, Thabo, Collison).
Commit 26 million to Harden and Ibaka.
Figure out how to dump Perkins, subtract 8 million.
Pick up option on Aldrich, add 3 million.
Trade either Maynor or Jackson (likely Maynor), net add 1 million.
Have Pleiss under contract, add $3 million.
Let Cook expire.
Fill out the rest with minimum vets and draft picks, roughly 5 million.

Total of 80 million with Harden and Ibaka on the roster. Even if the cap/tax doesn't increase as time progresses, that's $10 million over, or a $15 million penalty, bringing the total to 95 million. We're talking about an ownership group that overpaid for their team and paid the city off millions of dollars to get out of a lease one year early. They didn't get in it to make money, and the prospect of a dynasty will probably get them to spend.

So 95 million is the ceiling IMO. If they trade Ibaka for a cheaper replacement player, they could shed an additional 9 million from their payroll, and reduce their overall expenditures to 72 million. They could keep Ibaka, sell their draft picks, trade Aldrich, and fill the roster out completely with minimum vets. That would probably bring their total down to 75 cap/80 tax and offset the tax price by 2-3 million every other year when they sell their pick. The role players will be a revolving door of draft picks and min vets. Even if they get stuck with Perkins, they can move Ibaka and still be in that 80 million range.

Basically it's just what they're willing to spend. The floor is 70 million without Ibaka and the ceiling is 95 million with the majority of the role players/draft picks in tact. No one knows how much ownership is willing to spend, but if you look at their history, I would lean towards they're willing to spend to win. They're not going to lose money just to lose it. But they have a chance to take a real place in history over the next 5 years.
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