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Old 09-08-2012, 08:35 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default PMG odds , Is my Math that much off ??

Looking thru the box break section and the youtube breaks, seem like the chance of getting a PMG is almost one in every box.

And according to the checklist, there are only 40 players, each all with PMG cards number to 150 / 50 / 10. So the odds of pulling any one of the 40 players is equal. If we are assuming there is one in each box, doesn't that mean the odds of pulling a Jordan PMG is one in each 40 boxes. better yet the chance of pulling a either Jordan or Lebron PMG doubles and goes to one in 20 boxes.....

Am I missing something there...?? why are prices so high for these Cards on ebay ??
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Old 09-08-2012, 08:44 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I don't think the math is off, but calculate the going rate for 20 boxes haha. At the current wax prices, a PMG of either would only make you 15% back give or take assuming the red versions.
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Old 09-08-2012, 10:14 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I don't understand why people stick with the idea of how easy the PMGs are pulled.
What makes it expensive is the numbering, there are only 210 new Jordan PMGs, and there are probably over million Jordan collectors.
In fact, it will only jack up the box price, until it is very expensive to pull a PMGs.
In an extreme circumstance, even the PMGs are pulled one in each pack, as long as UD keeps the numbering unchanged, the cards will still sell red hot but the pack might cost $400+ per pack.
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Old 09-08-2012, 10:44 PM   #4 (permalink)
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the fact of the matter is this:

there are a total of 8400 PMG's Possible. This product was a severely short run of around 10000 boxes, which is only 1666 cases if that is exact.

gives a very good odds of pulling a PMG of some case, and most of the product run opened within the first week or so. this product seems like its easy to pull but for the cost it makes sense, if they were much harder to pull with lots of crap boxes, you would have severely cheaper product. if anything it makes a case for the product to sky rocket in value even more cause of the short print run
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Old 09-08-2012, 10:59 PM   #5 (permalink)
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any card can sell for any price if the demand is there................ doesn't always have to make sense or calculate perfect
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