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Old 10-14-2012, 03:20 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Exquisite Breakdown: Jordan, Lebron, Group A, And More, WOW!!!

So as you all know by now Exquisite Basketball is just around the corner. I have been following this like an obsessed maniac. So much so that I spent a decent amount of time hashing out the checklist to find out that each case actually has a Jordan auto, Lebron auto, and another Group A. (see auto numbers on forum link below)

2011-12 exquisite basketball checklist

My calculation were solidified eariler today by Gregg from Upper Deck, but was even further blown away by his message.



WOW So you are not only getting a Jordan, Lebron, and another Group A per case, but also a few other superstars as well. This all makes sense now given the price point, which will only go up as expected especially once the breaks start going live.

I'm sure that this will be $1200+ per box within two days after release, I saw it coming with Retro, and it will be the same. So now to the real question?

How many cases/boxes are you in?

Are you ripping or flipping?

I'm as of right now in 5 cases with a possibility of getting a few more. I'll be ripping probably a case or less and flipping the rest. Man, I can't wait.
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Old 10-14-2012, 03:23 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Can't Upper Deck tell us how many cases were actually made?
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Old 10-14-2012, 03:24 AM   #3 (permalink)
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still dont understand the math on why people will pay so much. All of those other autos besides Jordan and Lebron will be under $200 some well under that, and there will most likely be no crazy expensive chase cards so why would the boxes go up like crazy?
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Old 10-14-2012, 03:25 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Can't Upper Deck tell us how many cases were actually made?
They probably don't want to disclose it. It is between 1800-2000 cases, I'm 100% positive of this.
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Old 10-14-2012, 03:26 AM   #5 (permalink)
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haven't there been enough of these threads already?
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Old 10-14-2012, 03:27 AM   #6 (permalink)
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How much longer are Jordan, James, B.Harper, Trout, and others autos. Going to hold value when they release 1000000 more each year?
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Old 10-14-2012, 03:34 AM   #7 (permalink)
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still dont understand the math on why people will pay so much. All of those other autos besides Jordan and Lebron will be under $200 some well under that, and there will most likely be no crazy expensive chase cards so why would the boxes go up like crazy?
I understand your thinking but think of it this way. UD has to do something drastic seeing that they can't have game used in the product on top of it being college. The only way around that is to make sure the product is loaded to not disappoint the Exquisite name. Yes, you will have some who will condemn the product, but I actually really like it.


I look at it this way never before (to my knowledge, at least since I have been collecting) has Exquisite had a Group A auto per case period. Adding a Jordan, Lebron plus another Group A is well worth it. I'd rather pay $800 to get something good, then $500-550 (past Exquisites) for a slim chance to get anything at all. Don't get me wrong I do miss the Limited Logos, Number Pieces, and Logomans but I think they did a great job making it up to us collectors. Years from now people will be talking about how this was the best Exquisite ,and I believe this solely on the pack out alone.
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Old 10-14-2012, 03:47 AM   #8 (permalink)
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I understand your thinking but think of it this way. UD has to do something drastic seeing that they can't have game used in the product on top of it being college. The only way around that is to make sure the product is loaded to not disappoint the Exquisite name. Yes, you will have some who will condemn the product, but I actually really like it.


I look at it this way never before (to my knowledge, at least since I have been collecting) has Exquisite had a Group A auto per case period. Adding a Jordan, Lebron plus another Group A is well worth it. I'd rather pay $800 to get something good, then $500-550 (past Exquisites) for a slim chance to get anything at all. Don't get me wrong I do miss the Limited Logos, Number Pieces, and Logomans but I think they did a great job making it up to us collectors. Years from now people will be talking about how this was the best Exquisite ,and I believe this solely on the pack out alone.
Wow! Way to hype a product you haven't even seen yet!!

I understand the concept of the cards being nice to look at, but until you see the final product, you can't say it is good. Look at Retro. On paper it is one of the best releases ever, but the final product is very underwhelming!

And I have NO IDEA how you can say that a college only version of Exquisite will be the best ever..... compared to the Patch/Autos of the past????

I understand you are excited, but try not to do too much free advertising for UD until you get on the payroll!
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Old 10-14-2012, 04:13 AM   #9 (permalink)
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So after confirming a Olajuwan,Rodman,Admiral or West per case as well. I figure I crunch the numbers for the Mourning, Hardaway and Hill autos that Gregg mentions. (Keep in mind I did not include the Exquisite 12 inserts)

Autos of each (not having another group A or Olajuwan, Rodman, Admiral or West auto on the card, also not including the dimensions)

Mourning - 483 Autos
Penny - 371 Autos
Hill - 1 Auto

So much for those Hill Autos, but wait I still need to calculate the dimensions. I'm going to go like last time with each variation having roughly 150-200, I'll just use 150 for them all to make it easy so in fact it should look like this (each only have one dimension variation):

Mourning - (483) + 150 = 633 Autos
Penny - (371) + 150 = 521 Autos
Hill - (1) + 150 + 151 Autos

Finally I can add 25 to Hill or Hardaway (but not both) seeing they have a booklet card together.

Mourning - 633 Autos
Penny - 521 autos
Hill - (151) + 25 = 176 Autos

This equals 1,330 autos total. Most likely more dimensions are made then my 150 guesstimate.

Overall this means that in addition to the following:

1) Jordan Auto
2) Lebron Auto
3) Group A Auto (Bird, Magic, Russell, Dr. J or even another MJ or Lebron)
4) Olajuwan/Rodman/Admiral or West Auto

Finally there is also roughly a 75% chance (3 of every 4 cases) that your case also has a Mourning, Penny or Hill Auto as well. This just keeps getting better and better.

Last edited by Cisco69; 10-14-2012 at 04:23 AM.
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Old 10-14-2012, 04:24 AM   #10 (permalink)
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OMG WOW Mourning, and Penny college uniform autos too!!! WOOOOOWWWW I'm just so super excited I can't contain myself!!


/sarcasm
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Old 10-14-2012, 04:41 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Imo some people are going to be in for a harsh reality check when they the see what a lot of these autos go for. As someone who has bought multiple cases of every year of exquisite starting in 05-06 it's a joke to consider this the best exquisite, unless your a NCAA diehard, even then, there was much more to previous exquisites in which this can't compare due to the licensing constraints placed on it. A lot of people would lose their asses on exquisite boxes/cases back when not only were they in their NBA uniforms, but the price point was a far more reasonable 500-700 a box, I can't imagine the impending blood bath for those picking up boxes and cases at 900/2700.
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Old 10-14-2012, 07:01 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Cisco, because you are getting so much negative feedback about your comments, I fealt the need to post. Back in the day when Upper Deck had their license, I would buy atleast one case every year of Exquisite basketball and football for anywhere from from $450 to $600 a box, depending on if I pre-ordered or bought on the secondary market. Do you know how many of the hits from those I still have in my collection? NONE. Why? Not because I sold them on Ebay, it's because I gave them to a neighborhood kid to put in his bicycle spokes. That was the kind of value that Exquisite had. Most boxes were loaded with hard signed autos on cards with large elaborate patches of guys that never set foot on a court or field, or if they did, they didn't make an impact and we don't remember them today. So now we fast forward to today, where I can can by a basketball case of Exquisite that has a quaranteed auto of Jordan in one box, a 95% chance for a Lebron in another, and a player like Bird or Dr. J in the other! So Upper Deck finally puts value in a product and we still cry? Yea, the distributors have muddied the waters by getting greedy and raising the price early in the pre-sell market, but this is where the prices would be a couple of weeks after release anyway. And for you guys that cry about it being a college product, it's pretty sad that the companies that actually have an NBA license can't come up with a product that has this much value. Oh, I forgot, you guys want the card with the sticker auto with the piece of jersey that was cut out of a chinese knock off, but it says "Miami Heat", so I'm good!

Last edited by fctryseald; 10-14-2012 at 07:08 AM.
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Old 10-14-2012, 09:40 AM   #13 (permalink)
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You guys are nuts. For 3k I can go out and buy some great Exquisite cards.

Derrick Rose Rap
Westbrook Rap
Love Rap
Durant limited logo
Kobe/Lebron limited logos
Maybe a nice Jordan patch auto
Etc

You get the point. Instead you are spending 3k to bust college exquisite to get cards that will only go down in value over time. I think I will pass.
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Old 10-14-2012, 09:49 AM   #14 (permalink)
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As for the people trying make money box breaking. Better hope the market for a Jordan exquisite auto is around 2k or else you might lose money.
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Old 10-14-2012, 09:57 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Cisco69, as a case breaker myself, I've been reading your threads about Exquisite with great interest. I also think it'll be a great product, and you will probably do very well. The market really has a love affair with Upper Deck, I'm sure Panini is not all too happy about it. But I think the competition is good for everyone involved.

Case breakers know, you don't make a profit by hoping for one hit. You make a profit by selling EVERYTHING, and selling it quickly. From the looks of it, 11-12 Exquisite is going to have quite a bit a valuable content in addition to Jordan and LeBron.

I don't have any Exquisite on order, I don't have a local LCS and my online sources just can't sell to me because I'm not a brick and mortar hobby store.

Would love to see your case breaks if you are video'ing them?

And your analysis is fantastic. Still, UD can change pack-out at the last minute, sometimes there's no way to know until busting starts.

Anyway, good luck with your cases!
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Old 10-14-2012, 10:32 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Upper Deck has done a great job of hyping this product. I guess it has to find a way to justify the price point of this product and the way to do it is to advertise what's going to be on it. So basically for 3k/case Ud is telling its consumers your buying an MJ auto, Lebron Auto and the other Group A signers.
My point is whatever happened to opening a box and not knowing what you get? Is that were the excitement is when you open a box? For me it is. Buying a box is always a gamble because you don't know what your getting but if I was to buy a box and know already I'm getting an MJ am I just better off buying a single MJ auto for the same price point? It would have been better if UD or the distributors kept the price at $500-$600 didn't tell anyone what's in it and let the market decide the value of the product after it was released just like Retro.
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Old 10-14-2012, 11:20 AM   #17 (permalink)
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let's see some of this product and go from there.....

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Old 10-14-2012, 11:56 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Just one thing to consider for the Exquisite fans that have been using Retro as a comp. As great as Retro's release was, look at how much they sell for vs their NBA counterparts. For example, a PMG red MJ from Retro goes for what nowadays, maybe $1500 or so? The original is at least 4x that amount. MJ Flair retro goes around $400 and once again the NBA version is at least 4x that. Same with pretty much every other card where there is an NBA equivalent.

Now fast forward to Exquisite. Throw out all the RPAs, Logomen, LLs, EEs, Numbers patches and even box patches (btw, if the original Exquisite didn't have any of these they could have just passed as the base UD product). The only real comparable connection with Exquisite this new release will have is maybe Enshrinements and a very small number (1) of base autos. MJ Enshrinements autos from past years are probably around $1200 these days. If there's a 4:1 ratio of value, that would mean MJs from this release would be selling for about $300... Now, I don't think that will happen but I do not see these selling for anything like those Enshrinements after the first week of release. They will eventually settle somewhere around $550-750. A couple hundred above SPA and ATG college products but way below NBA Exquisite. All in all, it's not a bad break if you bought these cases around $1600 but the comparisons to the original stuff is a moot point altogether. There is not a comparison.
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Old 10-14-2012, 12:04 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Cisco, because you are getting so much negative feedback about your comments, I fealt the need to post. Back in the day when Upper Deck had their license, I would buy atleast one case every year of Exquisite basketball and football for anywhere from from $450 to $600 a box, depending on if I pre-ordered or bought on the secondary market. Do you know how many of the hits from those I still have in my collection? NONE. Why? Not because I sold them on Ebay, it's because I gave them to a neighborhood kid to put in his bicycle spokes. That was the kind of value that Exquisite had. Most boxes were loaded with hard signed autos on cards with large elaborate patches of guys that never set foot on a court or field, or if they did, they didn't make an impact and we don't remember them today. So now we fast forward to today, where I can can by a basketball case of Exquisite that has a quaranteed auto of Jordan in one box, a 95% chance for a Lebron in another, and a player like Bird or Dr. J in the other! So Upper Deck finally puts value in a product and we still cry? Yea, the distributors have muddied the waters by getting greedy and raising the price early in the pre-sell market, but this is where the prices would be a couple of weeks after release anyway. And for you guys that cry about it being a college product, it's pretty sad that the companies that actually have an NBA license can't come up with a product that has this much value. Oh, I forgot, you guys want the card with the sticker auto with the piece of jersey that was cut out of a chinese knock off, but it says "Miami Heat", so I'm good!
I agree 100% percent. I knew when I said that some people would probably jump on me for it which is fine. People need to remember I opened those years of exquisite and pulled GOLD: Kobe 1 of 1, Triple Logoman 1/1, Jordan/Kobe Inscription Auto, etc. So my opinion is from my experience, and my experience with the majority of boxes where you get 'nice' looking junk mainly coming out of prior exquisite. Yes of course you can't replace the limited logos, number pieces, retro rookies, logomans, and stuff like that but hey people are still buying this years exquisite for the insane price so they (UD) must be doing something right, supply and demand.

What this comes down to and really shows is how the majority of collectors HATE, yes I said hate Panini. I know hundreds of collectors like myself who will not even look at any Panini basketball products. The designs they use suck, overused images on cards from extremely similar looking sets. They single handedly destroyed the value of a Kobe auto. The only set they did right being the silhouette and that's really it. This (Exquisite) if anything with Retro should be a big wake up call for Panini to get their head out of their asses.

I agree I do not see this year exquisite being as risky/a gamble seeing you know what your getting which could and can take away some of the fun of breaking a box of this years exquisite to prior ones. Though this product will only help other years of Exquisitie go up as well so people should be happy. Best part is no redemptions, as least that is what I'm hearing.

I'm also hearing alot about the value of the autos coming out of this not being that valuable. I completely disagree with this. For one this is Exquisite and I completely understand the amounts of Jordan/Lebrons and other star players that will be hitting eBay day of release. Second they are in college uniforms. I know several collectors who the above two will not stop they from paying good money for one. When selling open it up to the Asain markets I bet 70% of the auctions (big name players) will be won by them. Will the autos sell for the same as prior Exquisites probably not, but many people are believing the autos will be at All Time Greats levels which they won't either. Ok enough speculation we will all just have to find out first hand when the product drops.

Yes I will be busting some Exquisite Basketball on video but I will be holding on to some as well. Will keep you all updated and good luck to anyone who breaks this, it should be pretty fun.

Last edited by Cisco69; 10-14-2012 at 12:16 PM.
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Old 10-14-2012, 12:13 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Just one thing to consider for the Exquisite fans that have been using Retro as a comp. As great as Retro's release was, look at how much they sell for vs their NBA counterparts. For example, a PMG red MJ from Retro goes for what nowadays, maybe $1500 or so? The original is at least 4x that amount. MJ Flair retro goes around $400 and once again the NBA version is at least 4x that. Same with pretty much every other card where there is an NBA equivalent.
I don't believe this is a good comparison. Those sets are iconic and are some of the most sought after chase cards from the 90's. Even if Retro had NBA images it still wouldn't come close to what the originals sell for.
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Old 10-14-2012, 12:24 PM   #21 (permalink)
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I don't believe this is a good comparison. Those sets are iconic and are some of the most sought after chase cards from the 90's. Even if Retro had NBA images it still wouldn't come close to what the originals sell for.
And are Exquisite cards not "iconic and some of the most sought after cards from the 2000's" - and then are you saying college values lowered the modern version values even more? That's exactly my point.
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Old 10-14-2012, 12:24 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Would love to see your case breaks if you are video'ing them?

And your analysis is fantastic. Still, UD can change pack-out at the last minute, sometimes there's no way to know until busting starts.

Anyway, good luck with your cases!
Yeah I'll be breaking a box within a few days of release on video. I hope I can keep from opening the rest, lol.

Thanks alot and if they did do that it would be shady, I don't think they are but we will just have to wait and see.
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Old 10-14-2012, 12:29 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Cisco, the numbers/odds analysis is appreciated..I just made a move on 2 loose boxes.

I had one sealed case, but my guy has two extra single boxes coming to him that I will now grab..I'll probably open the 2 boxes and keep the case sealed if I get a Jordan out of one of the 2..I'll post my breaks, but don't have a scanner..which scares me because of the backlash with no pics but what the heck. Thanks again for your efforts.
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Old 10-14-2012, 12:32 PM   #24 (permalink)
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let's see some of this product and go from there.....

True that, the best thing we all could do at this point is do as you say.

Just a heads up you look like a Karl Malone fan. You might like to know that Karl Malone is going to be in All Time Greats Basketball 2 which releases next year. Don't bother searching for it online you won't find anything. I found out about it while in conversation with a lead UD employee a while back.

Last edited by Cisco69; 10-14-2012 at 12:35 PM.
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Old 10-14-2012, 12:34 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Cisco, the numbers/odds analysis is appreciated..I just made a move on 2 loose boxes.

I had one sealed case, but my guy has two extra single boxes coming to him that I will now grab..I'll probably open the 2 boxes and keep the case sealed if I get a Jordan out of one of the 2..I'll post my breaks, but don't have a scanner..which scares me because of the backlash with no pics but what the heck. Thanks again for your efforts.
Thanks man. If you able to get the boxes at a decent price then why not pick them up. It should be a pretty fun break. Definitely get yourself a scanner or at worst just take quality photos of your hits. Good luck with your boxes.
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