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Old 10-16-2012, 02:14 AM   #26 (permalink)
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Everybody keeps talking about how 1000 Jordan autos are going to rush the marketplace. If we all buy every single case of Exquisite this week and open them all, why then yes, there would be a crap load of Jordan autos on the market. But with the combination of people sitting on cases, collectors keeping what they personally opened for their collection, and shops waiting for the 90 day mark, I believe only 1/3 of the cases will actually have their autos out there for sale by the end of the year.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:23 AM   #27 (permalink)
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Everybody keeps talking about how 1000 Jordan autos are going to rush the marketplace. If we all buy every single case of Exquisite this week and open them all, why then yes, there would be a crap load of Jordan autos on the market. But with the combination of people sitting on cases, collectors keeping what they personally opened for their collection, and shops waiting for the 90 day mark, I believe only 1/3 of the cases will actually have their autos out there for sale by the end of the year.
I don't know, I wouldn't be surprised to see 200 Jordan auto's from exquisite on Ebay by this weekend
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:28 AM   #28 (permalink)
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yes, that sounds about right.

looking at Panini's group website now, it says "Net Revenues in excess of 621 million Euros (year 2011)."

What is that, close to a global gross revenue of $1.5-2 BILLION????

Unless one of the American card companies merges with some other US conglomerate, who could ever outbid Panini for a license they are actively pursuing?...
Where did you find this info at, Derek?
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:30 AM   #29 (permalink)
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I don't know, I wouldn't be surprised to see 200 Jordan auto's from exquisite on Ebay by this weekend
I think there will easily be that many Exquisite Jordan Autos on ebay by this weekend. It seems like the majority of people rip a product open for the thrill of it, and then they list their pulls on ebay. I still see that happening with this product, especially now that they know there's atleast going to be a Jordan in there that will bring them a decent chunk of change.
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:28 AM   #30 (permalink)
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same thing happened with all time greats

you could pick up jordan autos for 325-350

probably around 300 for a while... but they bounced back to 400

Same thing with this...

Why complain????? basketball has been brutal last year or two...

Enjoy it...
So they havent broken the $400 barrier. But why focus on $400? How about you focus on the reality of them instead?

Have MJ Autos come down in prices over the years? Yes or No?
If they have come down, what would you suggest was the contributor leading to such a decline?

Exquiste MJ auto vs ATG MJ auto? Why such a price difference? If you tell me because the pack price is different then fine, lets compare a 90s Jordan Auto from UDs regular set vs ATF auto. Why the price difference between the two?
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:31 AM   #31 (permalink)
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There are millions of MJ collectors out there! There not going down anytime soon.. The people that think there going to drop in price are people who don't have any..
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Old 10-16-2012, 09:23 AM   #32 (permalink)
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2 words, college jersey.
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Old 10-16-2012, 11:43 AM   #33 (permalink)
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Where did you find this info at, Derek?

Hey Rick

From Panini's corporate website....

Corporate | Panini Group
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Old 10-16-2012, 12:44 PM   #34 (permalink)
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That's €621mm of net revenue - which probably means, for a company in this type of industry (publishing & entertainment) EBITDA of €100-120mm tops. This would imply value at current market conditions of €500-700mm. Now just have to figure out what proportion of their business (which looks like it was half a dozen divisions) comes from trading cards, and what portion of that is basketball.

Let's say trading cards are 30% of revenue, and basketball is half of that. That implies €90mm from basketball cards per year in sales. However, taking a bottoms up approach, we know Panini probably releases 6 basketball products per year at maybe 4k cases apiece. Under the assumption they make about €600 on each case, that would mean roughly €15mm each year. I'd trust this latter number as it relies on more reliable input factors (# of products, # of cases). If the license lasts for 5 years and is good for €75mm in sales over that time period, what can Panini pay in licensing fees to make it worth their while? I'd venture a guess of about €45-50mm for the license since those revenues, from a present value perspective, are probably worth close to €60mm in today's money.

Lots of assumptions baked in here, but I'd guess this isn't orders of magnitude off.

Edit: these are probably top end guesses, meaning the license may be, and probably is, cheaper. I left very little room for profit margin/employee & endorsement costs.
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