Sports Betting (NBA and NCAA)

[wolffer12]

Another thing to remember is there are times when the squares will win. They have to or they won't keep betting. It happened two weeks ago in the NFL all the square plays won but they had been getting their ass kicked up to that point.

Squares are killing college football but giving it all back in the NFL this year.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by EricInCT

Manu Ginobili didn't even travel with the team to New Orleans, you might want to mention that they are missing one of their big 3 if you are going to go into such a detailed analysis. I will add that the Spurs swept them last year, 4-0, and are 11-2 in 13 meetings, including two straight on the road in NO.

I find it strange that if this is such a mismatch and you feel strongly about it you will condense your bet into a -4 for a half and face the risk of poor shooting out of the gate and lack of a rhythm in an opening night game rather than laying an additional bucket or 3 pter (line is 6-7) since you know this team can close out games with their experience, no pressure to 'close out' a half. A lot of people though -5 with the lakers was a good pick too.

I like them for the game, first half seems a bit risky IMO.

I wish you the best, just my initial thoughts.

I will take my chances that the young-inexperienced team is the one that shows rust/nerves early and not the Spurs. The Hornets may settle in later in the game. Spurs are traditionally a very good 1st half team. I like the Spurs for the game as well obviously but like the 1st half better in this one.

[wolffer12]

plus we all know these games are fixed anyways it is just a matter if you are on the right side of the fix.

[jt16]

Originally Posted by EricInCT

Manu Ginobili didn't even travel with the team to New Orleans, you might want to mention that they are missing one of their big 3 if you are going to go into such a detailed analysis. I will add that the Spurs swept them last year, 4-0, and are 11-2 in 13 meetings, including two straight on the road in NO.
I find it strange that if this is such a mismatch and you feel strongly about it you will condense your bet into a -4 for a half and face the risk of poor shooting out of the gate and lack of a rhythm in an opening night game rather than laying an additional bucket or 3 pter (line is 6-7) since you know this team can close out games with their experience, no pressure to 'close out' a half. A lot of people though -5 with the lakers was a good pick too.

I like them for the game, first half seems a bit risky IMO.

I wish you the best, just my initial thoughts.

Stuff that that is meaningless to me, new year and new players. So does it matter if the Spurs swept them last year? Or are 11-2 in the last 13? I think people look for this stuff so they can find reasons to bet.

I am not saying the Spurs are a bad bet or the NO is going to cover, but I find trends useless especially when people look back over previous seasons.

[ricefan77]

Originally Posted by Gio47

I am a professional handicapper (not going to mention my website as I assume that's against the rules) and thought I'd share my play with everyone for free tonight. I was the most followed online handicapper in the NBA with 1.7 million views on my thread in 1 year on the biggest sports betting forum. I am not saying this to brag but rather so you know that I am not some degenerate who puts up squre/unthought out plays.

San Antonio Spurs -4 1st Half

I am going to be playing the San Antonio Spurs in the 1st half against the New Orleans Hornets. First off, this line in itself is very telling. The game line is -6.5 which ALWAYS equates to a 1st half line of -3.5 yet the books are bumping this up to -4. I think that's a tipping of their cap off that bat.

I am mainly playing this based on the chemistry of the two teams. The Spurs have the same exact team coming back this season except I think they will be better due to their young players growing and improving after their first full playing season. I think you will see Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green make an even bigger impact this season than they did last year. Both now have a year of starting under their belt. Tim Duncan looked great in preseason averaging 12.5ppg and shooting 55.4% from the field in 6 games. The Spurs acquired Boris Diaw late last year at the end of the season and he was a very effective player that should be even better now with a full training camp. Tony Parker is still Tony Parker. The bench with Gary Neal, Stephen Jackson, Tiago Splitter and Matt Bonner is still all intact and will be very effective again with the built up chemistry. They still have the best coach in the NBA in my mind in Greg Popovich and the Spurs should be rock solid as always again. Teams like the Spurs really play well early in the season because they don't have to make any adjustments to play to 100% efficiency, they know exactly how they need to play to win games.

The New Orleans Hornets on the other hand have a completely new, young team. It will most definitely take them a while to build up the chemistry to compete with teams like the Spurs, probably more than a full season. The Hornets have a new PG in Grevis Vasquez. He honestly isn't very good and is not of starting PG caliber but the Hornets have no one else. Erc Gordon is their SG and he is a great player but he is injured tonight. He probably won't play and if he does it will be in a bench role where I don't expect him to make a big impact. They added Austin Rivers in the draft who I think will be starting at SG. He is a very streaky player and I think it will take him a while to start being efficient, think Jimmer Fredetter last season. They have a new full time starting SF in Al-Farouq Aminu, again this is another guy who has not shown me he is good enough to start in the NBA. He averaged 5ppg, 4.7 rebounds. They added Anthony Davis, #1 overall pick, as their starting PF. He is still extremely young at 19 and very raw. His offensive game needs a ton of work but he will do some good things on defense in terms of blocking shots. I think bigger guys like Duncan will have the upper hand though with him in his 1st season. They also have a new Center in Robin Lopez. I have never liked him and I know for a fact he shouldn't be starting. All in all, they will have 5 completely new starters playing together. They will have zero chemistry and most of these guys really aren't even close to starter quality. The only effective bench piece they have is Ryan Anderson, other than him I don't really see anyone who will make an impact on offense or defense. Guys like Xavier Henry, Darius Miller, Brian Roberts, Lance Thomas and Hakim Warrick are all borderline D-League players who only made the team because the Hornets are so bad to begin with. Most would have been cut on other teams.

Another factor I see in this game will be the nerves of the young Hornets. I think this team will come out very hesitant and nervous in their 1st game. For the 1st time this team actually has some sort of positive expectations and I think they will feel the pressure. This cast of Spurs players has played in a ton of big Playoffs/Finals game and a opening game in New Orleans is nothing that will rattle them. They should be much more loose than their opponent tonight.

I think the big advantage the Spurs will have will be on offense. They will be running the high pick and roll offense as usual and they will pick apart this Hornets defense that is sure to have a ton of holes tonight with all the new additions. On offense, I think the Hornets will struggle due to lack of good shooters. The Spurs bait teams into taking long shots and Rivers, Vasquez, Aminu and Lopez are far from knockdown shooters. The only guy the Spurs will have to worry about in that regard is Ryan Anderson. He is the one guy I do believe will have a good game for New Orleans but I don't really see anyone else. Tony Parker should have his way with Vasquez and Duncan should have the upperhand on Davis. Kawhi Leonard should also have a big game matched up with Aminu. I think the Spurs will probably be up by around 7-10 points.

No offense, but that whole piece is riddled with opinions, which may or may not be accurate. I thought sports handicappers focused more on statistics and probability. You may be correct in your bet, but the lakers were -8.5 last night, pretty sure 1h was -5, and they didn't cover, so your first paragraph argument is worthless. I doubt you are anything more than a fan of the game with an interest in sports that likes to give his opinion, which is fine, but a professional handicapper you are not. Sorry

[jt16]

Originally Posted by wolffer12

Another thing to remember is there are times when the squares will win. They have to or they won't keep betting. It happened two weeks ago in the NFL all the square plays won but they had been getting their ass kicked up to that point.

Squares are killing college football but giving it all back in the NFL this year.

Last week in the NFL was terrible, I don't understand the 4pm schedule...only 2 games! 1pm NE came in, 4pm OAK and NYG, 8pm Denver, and Monday SF...square city.

[jt16]

Originally Posted by ricefan77

No offense, but that whole piece is riddled with opinions, which may or may not be accurate. I thought sports handicappers focused more on statistics and probability. You may be correct in your bet, but the lakers were -8.5 last night, pretty sure 1h was -5, and they didn't cover, so your first paragraph argument is worthless. I doubt you are anything more than a fan of the game with an interest in sports that likes to give his opinion, which is fine, but a professional handicapper you are not. Sorry

I always ignore professional handicappers....all the professional handicappers I know don't share their picks. They bet them and win money. No need to tout your picks if you can make money betting them.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by ricefan77

No offense, but that whole piece is riddled with opinions, which may or may not be accurate. I thought sports handicappers focused more on statistics and probability. You may be correct in your bet, but the lakers were -8.5 last night, pretty sure 1h was -5, and they didn't cover, so your first paragraph argument is worthless. I doubt you are anything more than a fan of the game with an interest in sports that likes to give his opinion, which is fine, but a professional handicapper you are not. Sorry

I have hit 58% with over 700 plays in the NBA the last 3 years and have never had a losing season. Statistically you have a better chance of hitting the lotto than randomly by luck winning 58% over that stretch of plays. The best sports bettors in the world strive to hit 58% and many are content hitting 55%. The opinions I have are obviously backed up by stats. I could start throwing out how the Spurs were top 10 in every offensive catergory last year and how the Hornets stats were obviously terrible but I don't think everyone wants to hear about a bunch of numbers/stats.

Just because one play (Lakers -5 1H) did not work does not mean my argument is worthless. I would have never taken Lakers -5 1H because they have a completely new team. They don't have chemistry, they lost every preseason game.

[EricInCT]

Originally Posted by jt16

Stuff that that is meaningless to me, new year and new players. So does it matter if the Spurs swept them last year? Or are 11-2 in the last 13? I think people look for this stuff so they can find reasons to bet.

I am not saying the Spurs are a bad bet or the NO is going to cover, but I find trends useless especially when people look back over previous seasons.

While I agree with almost everything you said about trends......the same bench and core players for the spurs contributed to the 4-0 sweep last year, two in the building tonight.....it is about the offense familiarity with each other than who they played last year.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by jt16

I always ignore professional handicappers....all the professional handicappers I know don't share their picks. They bet them and win money. No need to tout your picks if you can make money betting them.

Some handicappers like to bet their own picks and not share their picks with the rest of the world, in my opinion that is greed. I enjoy helping others win because I've seen so many lose it all which is why I do it.

[jt16]

Originally Posted by Gio47

I have hit 58% with over 700 plays in the NBA the last 3 years and have never had a losing season. The best sports bettors in the strive to hit 58% and many are content hitting 55%. The opinions I have are obviously backed up by facts. Just because one play (Lakers -5 1H) did not work does not mean my argument is worthless. I would have never taken Lakers -5 1H because they have a completely new team. They don't have chemistry, they lost every preseason game.

Just keep posting your plays, we shall see.

[EricInCT]

Originally Posted by jt16

Basketball is a tough sport to bet, I did great last year with the schedule being what it was. You had teams playing 4 games a week and you could see teams taking nights off. You have a lot of big underdogs winning out right.

I have being killing it in college football this year so I got some money to play with, my NBA and NCAA plays are a fraction of my football plays.

With that said, I am looking at the Blazers, New Orleans, and Raptors. Not sure if I will bet all or just one. Will post later.

I wrote the Kings off early because I think there is enough squares out there who think the Bulls are terrible without Rose and 7 is too high.
GST/PHX
Jazz/Mavs
Pistons/Hou
LAC/Memphis are no opinion....My square play would be Denver.

You and Wolffer must be brothers. You don't post ANY of your football picks, just criticize others (yet you seem to have all the time in the world to kill), but are "killing it" and Wolffer posts his 3 hours after the game begins, and takes a huge underdog...on the moneyline no less

At least I post everything I play.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by jt16

Just keep posting your plays, we shall see.

Trust me I've been doubted in the past. That thread with 1.7 million views had tons of people who didn't think I could continue winning and many haters. I even had people creating fake twitter accounts pretending to be me to solicit business at one point. I'll post my plays every now and then but can't continue posting them all in fairness to my paying clients.

[ricefan77]

Originally Posted by Gio47

I have hit 58% with over 700 plays in the NBA the last 3 years and have never had a losing season. The best sports bettors in the world strive to hit 58% and many are content hitting 55%. The opinions I have are obviously backed up by stats. I could start throwing out how the Spurs were top 10 in every offensive catergory last year and how the Hornets stats were obviously terrible but I don't think everyone wants to hear about a bunch of numbers/stats.

Just because one play (Lakers -5 1H) did not work does not mean my argument is worthless. I would have never taken Lakers -5 1H because they have a completely new team. They don't have chemistry, they lost every preseason game.

fair enough, i just thought that making case that the line for the 1h should be lower based on the overall line was the same thing that happened last night, and it didn't work out. you could just say you think it will hit based on a number of other factors and i would nod my head. I agree that 58% is pretty solid.

[EricInCT]

Originally Posted by Gio47

Some handicappers like to bet their own picks and not share their picks with the rest of the world, in my opinion that is greed. I enjoy helping others win because I've seen so many lose it all which is why I do it.

Just for the record: I believe you, just wanted to know why the 1/2 instead of the game play....I can see if the spread was 14.5 and the first half line was 7 and you thought they could keep it close for the game.....but -6 is nuttin' to fall asleep at the wheel and not close the game out.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by ricefan77

fair enough, i just thought that making case that the line for the 1h should be lower based on the overall line was the same thing that happened last night, and it didn't work out. you could just say you think it will hit based on a number of other factors and i would nod my head. I agree that 58% is pretty solid.

Lakers are traditionally a great 1H team, one of the best. That's why that line was inflated to -5. It wasn't a good line though in their case though because of all the new pieces.

[jt16]

Originally Posted by EricInCT

While I agree with almost everything you said about trends......the same bench and core players for the spurs contributed to the 4-0 sweep last year, two in the building tonight.....it is about the offense familiarity with each other than who they played last year.

Thats cool, but New Orleans might have added a player or two, not sure. Might want to check...Also there is 2 sides of the story to every game.

People can find a million reasons to bet the Spurs, and there are probably zero reasons to bet NO. Thats why I will bet New Orleans.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by EricInCT

Just for the record: I believe you, just wanted to know why the 1/2 instead of the game play....I can see if the spread was 14.5 and the first half line was 7 and you thought they could keep it close for the game.....but -6 is nuttin' to fall asleep at the wheel and not close the game out.

I agree. To me there is no way of knowing for sure which is the better play 1H or game. I think they are both solid plays. I just have that strong feeling N.O will come out slow so I went with 1H. Either way, if the Spurs do come out horrible in the 1H, I'll probably take them 2H.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by jt16

Thats cool, but New Orleans might have added a player or two, not sure. Might want to check...Also there is 2 sides of the story to every game.

People can find a million reasons to bet the Spurs, and there are probably zero reasons to bet NO. Thats why I will bet New Orleans.

You think no one is on them but there are tons of people on New Orleans. If all the action was on Spurs, then the linesmakers would keep moving the line up. The line has only moved 0.5 point thus far. All this thinking of "Books are trying to trap" is simply not true. The books don't gamble, they let their customers do that. They try to get the same amount of money on both sides and make the guaranteed 10%. The ONLY book that will sometimes leave a large amount of money on one side than the other is PinnacleSports.com

Simply betting non-public plays will NEVER work. If it were that easy, then we could all just go and check the betting %'s and bet the team least bet on. None of us would need jobs and we'd all be millionaries. Non-Public plays hit 50%, Public plays hit 50%. It's all about picking and choosing and beating the juice.

[jt16]

Originally Posted by Gio47

Trust me I've been doubted in the past. That thread with 1.7 million views had tons of people who didn't think I could continue winning and many haters. I even had people creating fake twitter accounts pretending to be me to solicit business at one point. I'll post my plays every now and then but can't continue posting them all in fairness to my paying clients.

Paying clients, LOL, you are just a tout trying to make money. Been there done that. If you have paying clients then why post picks here for free?? Because you want people to PM you so you can get more suckers to pay for picks. Thats why.

NEVER PAY FOR PICKS, the info is out there for everyone to see. Vegas gives all the info you need with the lines they release, remember Vegas doesn't put out lines to get 50/50 action. They put out lines because they analysis the info better then anybody else in the world. They take all the trends, stats, injuries, weather etc and put a line.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by jt16

Paying clients, LOL, you are just a tout trying to make money. Been there done that. If you have paying clients then why post picks here for free?? Because you want people to PM you so you can get more suckers to pay for picks. Thats why.

You and me are just cut from a different a cloth. The reason I gave out my play for free was to help out those on here. Not all of us have such selfish motives and feen for $. I thought that's what this whole thread was about, sharing information and helping each other win in sports betting? I enjoy helping others make money. I like the BlowOut community so I thought I'd give back by sharing my expertise on here.

[jt16]

Originally Posted by Gio47

You think no one is on them but there are tons of people on New Orleans. If all the action was on Spurs, then the linesmakers would keep moving the line up. The line has only moved 0.5 point thus far. All this thinking of "Books are trying to trap" is simply not true. The books don't gamble, they let their customers do that. They try to get the same amount of money on both sides and make the guaranteed 10%. The ONLY book that will sometimes leave a large amount of money on one side than the other is PinnacleSports.com

Simply betting non-public plays will NEVER work. If it were that easy, then we could all just go and check the betting %'s and bet the team least bet on. None of us would need jobs and we'd all be millionaries. Non-Public plays hit 50%, Public plays hit 50%. It's all about picking and choosing and beating the juice.

Vegas never gets 50/50 action on games. They hardly ever move the line because squares pound the favorites...The only games Vegas wants 50/50 action is the Super Bowl and other Championship games that draw millions of dollars in bets.

There a tons of examples every week that proves that 50/50 Vegas thing wrong. Why do street books make money? Do think they get 50/50 action on all their games? Books win because people bet favorites, and when they win they bet more, and then bet until they lose.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by jt16

Dude there is no way that you are legit, Vegas never gets 50/50 action on games. They hardly ever move the line because squares pound the favorites...The only games Vegas wants 50/50 action is the Super Bowl and other Championship games that draw millions of dollars in bets.

There a tons of examples every week that proves that 50/50 Vegas thing wrong. Why do street books make money? Do think they get 50/50 action on all their games? Books win because people bet favorites, and when they win they bet more, and then bet until they lose.

58% win rate over 700 plays isn't legit? Billy Walters (look him up because I know you don't know who he is) is the biggest and most successful sports bettor in the world. His win rate is 58%.

Books don't gamble, they aim for 50/50 action. They don't always get it exact but that's the goal. The reason street books make money is because people lack money management skills. They go all in and eventually they lose. You won't simply lose just because you bet favorites. It'd be pretty easy to just bet all underdogs and win but that doesn't work either, dogs hit 50% just as favorites do. They beat you long run with the juice and people lacking money management skills.

[jt16]

Originally Posted by Gio47

58% win rate over 700 plays isn't legit? Billy Walters (look him up because I know you don't know who he is) is the biggest and most successful sports bettor in the world. His win rate is 58%.

Books don't gamble, they aim for 50/50 action. They don't always get it exact but that's the goal. The reason street books make money is because people lack money management skills. They go all in and eventually they lose.

Do you really think Vegas doesn't know in advance which games will get bet heavy by the line they release? They set the line according to their line systems not by the public. The public doesn't always move a line, sharp money does. I have heard of Billy Walters and if makes a big move on a game he will move the line by himself even if the public is on the other side. Vegas doesn't respect the public or their money. There are big movers in this business and they move lines. If you hit 58% of your games then that is a great number especially if you can get reduced juice at places like 5 dimes or pinbet.

Reduced juice is key to a good money managment system for big players. Do agree?

[jt16]

Originally Posted by Gio47

58% win rate over 700 plays isn't legit? Billy Walters (look him up because I know you don't know who he is) is the biggest and most successful sports bettor in the world. His win rate is 58%.

Books don't gamble, they aim for 50/50 action. They don't always get it exact but that's the goal. The reason street books make money is because people lack money management skills. They go all in and eventually they lose. You won't simply lose just because you bet favorites. It'd be pretty easy to just bet all underdogs and win but that doesn't work either, dogs hit 50% just as favorites do. They beat you long run with the juice and people lacking money management skills.

That is BS, there are more wiseguys and sharp players betting in places illegally then rich guys sitting in Las Vegas. You really think that big players aren't taking advantage of street lines and bubble gum bookies? AC had one of the biggest books around. It was run out of the Borgota by the mob.

You seem to think that Las Vegas is the only place where sharp players bet, that just isn't true.