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Old 06-12-2013, 03:12 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default 2012/13 Panini Crusades Odds/Print Runs

So I opened about 6 boxes of this stuff, FYI good autos are few and far between! Anyway you get 1 Crusade Prism per pack and 2 of the 6 in the box were numbered in each box. So based on that I came up with the following odds for each insert set:

Insert / Print Run / Set / Total Made / Pack Odds / Per Pack / Per Box / Per Case
Crusades Prism* 368 300 110,400 1.5 0.67 4.00 48.00
Crusade Red 99 300 29,700 5.6 0.18 1.08 12.91
Crusade Purple 49 300 14,700 11.3 0.09 0.53 6.39
Crusade Green 25 300 7,500 22.1 0.05 0.27 3.26
Crusade Gold 10 300 3,000 55.2 0.02 0.11 1.30
Crusade Black 1 300 300 552.0 0.00 0.01 0.13 24.00 #'ed Crusade
Majestic Materials* 392 100 39,224 4.2 0.24 1.42 17.05
Quest Materials* 392 100 39,224 4.2 0.24 1.42 17.05
Majestic Patch** 21 97 2,073 79.9 0.01 0.08 0.90
Quest Patch** 24 95 2,279 72.7 0.01 0.08 0.99 1.89 #'ed Patch
Majestic Sigs* 395 100 39,535 4.2 0.24 1.43 17.19
Quest Sigs* 395 100 39,535 4.2 0.24 1.43 17.19
Majestic Sigs Gold** 16 100 1,630 101.6 0.01 0.06 0.71
Majestic Sigs Black 1 100 100 1,656.0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Quest Sigs Gold** 19 100 1,900 87.2 0.01 0.07 0.83
Quest Sigs Black 1 100 100 1,656.0 0.00 0.00 0.04 1.62 #'ed Auto

Packs Made 165,600
Boxes Made 27,600
Cases Made 2,300
* = Estimate
** = Average Print Run based on serial #'s
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Old 06-12-2013, 04:46 PM   #2 (permalink)
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if true that print run is about triple what the demand will be
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Old 06-12-2013, 05:19 PM   #3 (permalink)
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if true that print run is about triple what the demand will be
Yeah people will like the low numbered parallel crusade inserts, but the autos and jersey cards are the same run of the mill stuff Panini has been pumping out all year long. Hopefully these sell like the Prizm Gold Parallels because I need them to in order to even get half my money back!

I thought having the double rookie class this year would remove many of the scrub autos, but instead it just makes it nearly impossible to hit the big names. Every Panini product has 100 rookie autos and half of them seemed to play in the D-League!

25-30K box production run seems to be a pretty typical amount made for most products.

The best cards I pulled from 34 packs were:
Tony Parker Crusades Gold 4/10
Andrea Bargnani Crusades Gold 1/10
Harrison Barnes Auto
Jimmy Bulter Auto
Patrick Ewing Crusades Green /25
Evan Fournier Crusades Green /25
Glen Davis 5 color Patch /25
Alvan Adams 3 color Patch /25
Jimmy Butler Auto
Mark Price Auto
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Old 06-12-2013, 06:01 PM   #4 (permalink)
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25-30K box production run seems to be a pretty typical amount made for most products.

It's pretty typical of Panini NBA products that tank.

2300 cases is significantly more than either Prizm or Select, which were both in the 1700-1900 range with way more demand.
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Old 06-13-2013, 09:38 AM   #5 (permalink)
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It's pretty typical of Panini NBA products that tank.

2300 cases is significantly more than either Prizm or Select, which were both in the 1700-1900 range with way more demand.
My estimations could be a little high if people are getting more than 2 #'ed Crusade Prism cards. Yeah if the production is higher than those 2 products then that explains all the terrible hits.
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Old 06-13-2013, 12:24 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I opened 5 cases of Crusade last night. I'll be posting a more detailed thread later tonight, but I pulled the following Crusades (in all 5 cases):
  • 240 blue (not #'d)
  • 60 red /99
  • 31 purple /49
  • 22 green /25
  • 6 gold /10
  • 1 black /1
The inserts are also very tough pulls, usually only 1 per box. There are 3 insert sets, I was not even close to building a complete insert set.
  • 28 Knight Court
  • 19 Royalty
  • 14 Nobility
The prime Patch cards are really nice, almost all of mine are 3+ colors, tons of stitching, etc.
  • 11 prime patch cards
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Old 06-13-2013, 02:41 PM   #7 (permalink)
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@alexlazarevich

thats tough break! may i ask who the black is ? or how many complete sets do you have? i busted two cases, i didnt even make one set. it seems to me the allocation is worse than usual.

thanks

Dave
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:02 PM   #8 (permalink)
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@aether

I haven't sorted the base yet, that will happen tonight.

The black is Anderson Varejao. The best Crusade I pulled was a /99 Kyrie Irving. It was probably my worst break in the last 4-5 breaks. But still there's a ton of content, I can come close to even if it weren't for....

I've opened at least 50 Panini NBA cases so far this year, their allocation is absolutely terrible. I've emailed them asking about it, got no response at all. And it's not like they can't do good allocation. Some rare products seem to have great allocation. It's like they flip a switch and do it right for a change. But then boom, the next product comes out and you have 1000's of leftover base. Brilliance was crappy. I've got some cards with extra 20 copies!

And their allocation is NOT random. That's what they'll tell you, "oh, it's just random allotment blah blah..." BS. It is not random when you have 40-50 copies of cards #101-115 (which are usually 1 team), and only 15-20 copies of cards #116-130 (which are another team). You see this a lot, their allocation seems based on teams, and they don't sort well enough at the factory, so you get some teams with tons of extra copies, and others are super shorted.

Their insert cards are even worse. Just total crapfest allocation.

I'm really kind of sick of it. I'm going to have to quit this business, or at least quit buying their NBA products, because what little profit there is to be made is zero'ed out when you have such crappy allocation are are stuck with very poor selling base lots.

Sorry for the rant.
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:10 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexlazarevich View Post
@aether

I haven't sorted the base yet, that will happen tonight.

The black is Anderson Varejao. The best Crusade I pulled was a /99 Kyrie Irving. It was probably my worst break in the last 4-5 breaks. But still there's a ton of content, I can come close to even if it weren't for....

I've opened at least 50 Panini NBA cases so far this year, their allocation is absolutely terrible. I've emailed them asking about it, got no response at all. And it's not like they can't do good allocation. Some rare products seem to have great allocation. It's like they flip a switch and do it right for a change. But then boom, the next product comes out and you have 1000's of leftover base. Brilliance was crappy. I've got some cards with extra 20 copies!

And their allocation is NOT random. That's what they'll tell you, "oh, it's just random allotment blah blah..." BS. It is not random when you have 40-50 copies of cards #101-115 (which are usually 1 team), and only 15-20 copies of cards #116-130 (which are another team). You see this a lot, their allocation seems based on teams, and they don't sort well enough at the factory, so you get some teams with tons of extra copies, and others are super shorted.

Their insert cards are even worse. Just total crapfest allocation.

I'm really kind of sick of it. I'm going to have to quit this business, or at least quit buying their NBA products, because what little profit there is to be made is zero'ed out when you have such crappy allocation are are stuck with very poor selling base lots.

Sorry for the rant.
i totally understand what you mean bro!

i feel exactly what you just said...plus the worse part is the thousands of products they are coming each year now....there are still at least 6 products left.....EVEN WHEN THE SEASON IS OVER!!!!
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Old 06-13-2013, 04:13 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexlazarevich View Post
I opened 5 cases of Crusade last night. I'll be posting a more detailed thread later tonight, but I pulled the following Crusades (in all 5 cases):
  • 240 blue (not #'d)
  • 60 red /99
  • 31 purple /49
  • 22 green /25
  • 6 gold /10
  • 1 black /1
The inserts are also very tough pulls, usually only 1 per box. There are 3 insert sets, I was not even close to building a complete insert set.
  • 28 Knight Court
  • 19 Royalty
  • 14 Nobility
The prime Patch cards are really nice, almost all of mine are 3+ colors, tons of stitching, etc.
  • 11 prime patch cards
Thanks for the update, this is a huge sample size and shows that you do get exactly 2 #'ed Crusades per box (at least on average), so my production estimates look to be right on. I guess with the 2 golds I pulled in 5 2/3 boxes, I should be pretty happy.
Chris Justice from the Hobby box did a few case breaks online yesterday and 1 of the cases had like 4 golds and a different case had like 5 patch cards. All luck of the draw I guess!
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Old 06-13-2013, 04:22 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Wow the inserts are very tough to pull. I wish they would have made them look more special then.

If the odds of the 3 inserts are all the same and you just get 1 per box, then the print run of each card is only 276 (27,600 boxes divided by 100 total insert cards).
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Old 06-13-2013, 04:29 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexlazarevich View Post
@aether

I haven't sorted the base yet, that will happen tonight.

The black is Anderson Varejao. The best Crusade I pulled was a /99 Kyrie Irving. It was probably my worst break in the last 4-5 breaks. But still there's a ton of content, I can come close to even if it weren't for....

I've opened at least 50 Panini NBA cases so far this year, their allocation is absolutely terrible. I've emailed them asking about it, got no response at all. And it's not like they can't do good allocation. Some rare products seem to have great allocation. It's like they flip a switch and do it right for a change. But then boom, the next product comes out and you have 1000's of leftover base. Brilliance was crappy. I've got some cards with extra 20 copies!

And their allocation is NOT random. That's what they'll tell you, "oh, it's just random allotment blah blah..." BS. It is not random when you have 40-50 copies of cards #101-115 (which are usually 1 team), and only 15-20 copies of cards #116-130 (which are another team). You see this a lot, their allocation seems based on teams, and they don't sort well enough at the factory, so you get some teams with tons of extra copies, and others are super shorted.

Their insert cards are even worse. Just total crapfest allocation.

I'm really kind of sick of it. I'm going to have to quit this business, or at least quit buying their NBA products, because what little profit there is to be made is zero'ed out when you have such crappy allocation are are stuck with very poor selling base lots.

Sorry for the rant.
Can't be a rant if it's the truth. You should know better than anybody about how Panini Basketball works. I feel pretty stupid about Crusade because I was pretty pumped for it and I got some of the worst cards I've pulled all year- by far the worst break I've had in years especially for the money I spent.
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Old 06-13-2013, 08:14 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aether View Post
@alexlazarevich

thats tough break! may i ask who the black is ? or how many complete sets do you have? i busted two cases, i didnt even make one set. it seems to me the allocation is worse than usual.

thanks

Dave
Out of 5 cases, I'm only able to build 5 complete base sets 1-100. The extras are insane. Some cards I pulled 17 copies, others I only pulled 5 copies. The good thing for me is I did pull 17 Kyrie Base RC's, that'll help.

But yeah, even the base card allocation is terrible. Topps is much better at allocation, they have it down to a science. I've opened Topps cases where I pull 40-50 sets and only have 1-2 extras at most.
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Old 06-13-2013, 09:25 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexlazarevich View Post
Out of 5 cases, I'm only able to build 5 complete base sets 1-100. The extras are insane. Some cards I pulled 17 copies, others I only pulled 5 copies. The good thing for me is I did pull 17 Kyrie Base RC's, that'll help.

But yeah, even the base card allocation is terrible. Topps is much better at allocation, they have it down to a science. I've opened Topps cases where I pull 40-50 sets and only have 1-2 extras at most.


yeah I just opened 3 blaster cases of Archives MLB, got 13 complete base sets with a total of about 20 cards left over. Collation was essentially perfect even within a silly little retail case. wish Panini would do that.
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Old 06-15-2013, 11:19 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Just curious... for those who have opened this product, which Crusade parallels look the best in hand?

From the scans, it looks like the easier ones (blue, red, purple) look better than the tough ones (green, gold). Although the blacks do look really nice.

Was going to pick up a couple of boxes from the LCS, but $120 a box seems crazy for this stuff. For $240, I can pick up a TON of the Crusade parallels, since those look like the only good stuff in this product.
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Old 06-15-2013, 11:30 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Yaga View Post
Just curious... for those who have opened this product, which Crusade parallels look the best in hand?

From the scans, it looks like the easier ones (blue, red, purple) look better than the tough ones (green, gold). Although the blacks do look really nice.

Was going to pick up a couple of boxes from the LCS, but $120 a box seems crazy for this stuff. For $240, I can pick up a TON of the Crusade parallels, since those look like the only good stuff in this product.
I love busting wax but I learned a long time ago it's better to spend box money on individual cards. After I bought 3 boxes of prizm and still didn't complete my set I knew I wouldn't buy another until they came down on prices. So I probably so t be busting wax again
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Old 06-15-2013, 02:03 PM   #17 (permalink)
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hey alex

believe me..i had it worst with Panini

5 cases of certified without a Kyrie auto
2 cases of limited - 1 came without a single patch and best card was a Dr J sticker and no gd rcs
Cases of Prizm without any gold
Elite, Brilliance, Marquee, P&P has all been horrible
For my 2 cases of Crusade, I did not hit a single Rookie auto that can sell above $20. Best was a jimmy butler. 5 Daquan Cooks
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Old 06-15-2013, 04:07 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Time to roll the dice.
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Old 06-15-2013, 04:22 PM   #19 (permalink)
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@aether

I haven't sorted the base yet, that will happen tonight.

The black is Anderson Varejao. The best Crusade I pulled was a /99 Kyrie Irving. It was probably my worst break in the last 4-5 breaks. But still there's a ton of content, I can come close to even if it weren't for....

I've opened at least 50 Panini NBA cases so far this year, their allocation is absolutely terrible. I've emailed them asking about it, got no response at all. And it's not like they can't do good allocation. Some rare products seem to have great allocation. It's like they flip a switch and do it right for a change. But then boom, the next product comes out and you have 1000's of leftover base. Brilliance was crappy. I've got some cards with extra 20 copies!

And their allocation is NOT random. That's what they'll tell you, "oh, it's just random allotment blah blah..." BS. It is not random when you have 40-50 copies of cards #101-115 (which are usually 1 team), and only 15-20 copies of cards #116-130 (which are another team). You see this a lot, their allocation seems based on teams, and they don't sort well enough at the factory, so you get some teams with tons of extra copies, and others are super shorted.

Their insert cards are even worse. Just total crapfest allocation.

I'm really kind of sick of it. I'm going to have to quit this business, or at least quit buying their NBA products, because what little profit there is to be made is zero'ed out when you have such crappy allocation are are stuck with very poor selling base lots.

Sorry for the rant.

NT could probably turn your luck around ?
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