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Old 04-01-2014, 06:18 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Question How much does AD stuff come down this offseason?

I thought about posting this a few days prior to that27guy's amazing AD showoff thread, so take this as completely separate from that. I see these as the three general answers to my question (didn't feel like making a poll)-

A. AD stuff will come down quite a bit this offseason due to the fact that everything, no matter what, comes down quite a bit then, then also factor in the incoming amazing draft class

B. AD stuff will hold steady more than stuff normally does, thanks to the crazy upside he's shown this season

C. AD stuff will actually continue to sneak up in value over the offseason due to the fact that his high end is quickly getting tucked away by both collectors and flippers alike, plus the fact that people might start thinking about what his ceiling might be value wise if they're a playoff team next year


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Old 04-01-2014, 06:21 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I'm going to go with (A) that it comes down this off-season and when the 2015 rookie class cards start coming out.
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Old 04-01-2014, 06:24 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by WaiverWire View Post
I'm going to go with (A) that it comes down this off-season and when the 2015 rookie class cards start coming out.
I agree, although I won some real nice high end Anthony Davis. For the most part , in all off seasons cards seem to settle and rise once the new season takes off
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Old 04-01-2014, 06:24 PM   #4 (permalink)
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correction *own
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Old 04-02-2014, 02:13 AM   #5 (permalink)
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i dont think the average card goes down 'quite a bit' in the summer. the avg card goes down somewhat. i think his cards will hold pretty steady for the most part. plus the good thing about this summer is i think team usa has to play in whatever the tournament is this summer, ad will probably be on the team, and basketball will get a little more focus here than on a summer with no team usa stuff.

it feels like the great stuff of his from immaculate, nt rap's, and flawless, makes it so there are always great cards of him available. that stuff wont drop too much, lower end autos will probably drop a little. nothing is going to drop from like $100 to $50 then go back up to $100 once the season starts.
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Old 04-02-2014, 03:05 AM   #6 (permalink)
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i think his stuff has peaked until he combines team success with his amazing individual play, which will be soon enough imo.
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Old 04-02-2014, 03:23 AM   #7 (permalink)
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i dont know if AD is the right guy to buy into... i think his team will do much better next season, but as you know performance on the court doesnt mean he will get hobby love

during the playoffs and off season, you won't hear much about him and all the hype and attention will be on the new rooks.. what would even drive a spike in sales down the road

plus, i dont think he has a superstar type quality about him.. i dont know how likeable and marketable he is.. he doesnt stand out.... for international collectors who are much more disconnected from the game, what kinda noise would AD have to make to get attention in china, australia, canada, etc.. a 20/10 guy on a weak team.. smaller market.. with a horrible team name (although i like the colors).. who cares... people around the world dont want a pelicans/AD jersey

but really... its hard to invest in ANY guy.. the way the market is now.. we are overpaying from the get go.. there is no more buy low sell high... its buy high and pray

i really only see his stuff coming down (off season or not) unless he moves to a big market, starts winning and has a personality people can get behind
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Old 04-02-2014, 05:26 AM   #8 (permalink)
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AD has a lot of fans in Australia, but with him being so expensive, none pc him.

Will he come down in price??? I think 100% yes. But mainly because his prices are extortionate.

But he will get better and better.

His prices are crazy and he has a lot of Autos out there, plus he is signing again for Panini which will help prices come down.

He's going to be very likeable worldwide and will be a superstar (barring serious injury) so that is not in question.

If he stays with the Pels and takes them to incredible heights which he might be capable of, then watch out, but only way is down for mine.

I hate how people bring in crap like "investment". Whilst I buy cards that I hope will hold value, I don't collect for investment purposes. Buzz off.
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Old 04-02-2014, 06:33 AM   #9 (permalink)
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I personally see him going down. I think the peak of the craze was about 2 weeks ago. I got $500 for a card that I purchased at auction 3 weeks prior for $270. I have the option to purchase that same card from another seller for $400 currently. I think be has already started to cool down slightly, and hope that he does some more during the off season.
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Old 04-02-2014, 09:43 AM   #10 (permalink)
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obviously haven't been paying attention to BKB this year who the ef is AD?
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Old 04-02-2014, 09:48 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Option A for sure... I think one of the biggest factors is that there are just SOOO many AD rookie autos out there!! They flooded it big time with him last year.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:01 AM   #12 (permalink)
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As an average (prices over the whole season) the high end stuff will barely drop. Compared to 2-3 weeks ago, yes it will drop. People are loading up on the kid and making a thread every time he blocks a shot to hype him then sell off his cards.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:36 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabie1 View Post
As an average (prices over the whole season) the high end stuff will barely drop. Compared to 2-3 weeks ago, yes it will drop. People are loading up on the kid and making a thread every time he blocks a shot to hype him then sell off his cards.
Even as a collector and a Pelicans fan, the prices last 2-3 weeks were so crazy that I unloaded almost everything that I had of him. I am hoping I can pick up a few high end autos this off season for 20-30% less than what his stuff is going for currently(which I believe is possible). I do believe that the super rare stuff(flawless diamond base /20, Flawless Auto /25, etc) will be hard to get during the off season, simply because so many people overpaid drastically the last 3 weeks and will not want to unload unless they come across hard times and need some cash.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:55 AM   #14 (permalink)
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I'm not sure but I have an Immaculate Jumbo Patch auto /75 that I can't decide on whether or not to list it now
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Old 04-02-2014, 11:46 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bradforddorman View Post
I personally see him going down. I think the peak of the craze was about 2 weeks ago. I got $500 for a card that I purchased at auction 3 weeks prior for $270. I have the option to purchase that same card from another seller for $400 currently. I think be has already started to cool down slightly, and hope that he does some more during the off season.
That's because he hasn't played a game since then...
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Old 04-02-2014, 12:30 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
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obviously haven't been paying attention to BKB this year who the ef is AD?
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Old 04-02-2014, 12:36 PM   #17 (permalink)
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was wondering why people cared about Adrian dantley
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Old 04-02-2014, 01:32 PM   #18 (permalink)
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His stuff is going to drop like a rock. If I had anything high end of his, I'd definitely go put it on eBay right now with a BIN of about 50% of what his stuff has been selling for. Who cares if he's only 21 and considered by some a top 3 or 4 player in the league? Who cares if some experts have him tabbed as the best player in the league in 5 years. Who cares if some of Kyrie's cards are STILL worth more than him. The time to panic is now and that means sell!


Sell him now and sell cheap!
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Old 04-02-2014, 01:38 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the27guy View Post
His stuff is going to drop like a rock. If I had anything high end of his, I'd definitely go put it on eBay right now with a BIN of about 50% of what his stuff has been selling for. Who cares if he's only 21 and considered by some a top 3 or 4 player in the league? Who cares if some experts have him tabbed as the best player in the league in 5 years. Who cares if some of Kyrie's cards are STILL worth more than him. The time to panic is now and that means sell!


Sell him now and sell cheap!
You cannot be a top 3-4 player in the league and not even be close to making the playoffs. He has a future, defiantly. But top 3-4 players in the league? lol.

I watched some of his games this season in which he put up monstrous numbers. But hey, a lot of players did on crap teams this season as well. Hell, Nick Young dropped 40 last night. Afflalo did not make the All-Star team this year because he is putting big number on a crap teams. AD is doing the same right now.

Edit: And i still think Irving, if he gets a proper team and coach around him, will have a better future in the game AND in the hobby.
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Old 04-02-2014, 01:51 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I think A.D numbers would be even better in a better team. I think he is the best player in the league since... 2007 Durant IMO

He will be top 3.
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Old 04-02-2014, 01:55 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Quote:
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I think A.D numbers would be even better in a better team. I think he is the best player in the league since... 2007 Durant IMO

He will be top 3.
How will his numbers be better if he was on a better team? i am not arguing, i am just curious to see why you would think that.
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Old 04-02-2014, 01:58 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Quote:
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How will his numbers be better if he was on a better team? i am not arguing, i am just curious to see why you would think that.
For example... with CP3 (assist...)

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Old 04-02-2014, 01:58 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Rabie1 View Post
You cannot be a top 3-4 player in the league and not even be close to making the playoffs. He has a future, defiantly. But top 3-4 players in the league? lol.

I watched some of his games this season in which he put up monstrous numbers. But hey, a lot of players did on crap teams this season as well. Hell, Nick Young dropped 40 last night. Afflalo did not make the All-Star team this year because he is putting big number on a crap teams. AD is doing the same right now.

Edit: And i still think Irving, if he gets a proper team and coach around him, will have a better future in the game AND in the hobby.
All due respect, you are wrong. Michael Jordan in his 2nd year was destined to be a top 3-4 player eventually and the 1985-86 Bulls still finished 30-52. 1985-86 Chicago Bulls Schedule and Results | Basketball-Reference.com
I'm not saying AD is the next MJ or anywhere close, but to think that superstars always make the playoffs is just flat out incorrect.
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Old 04-02-2014, 01:58 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the27guy View Post
His stuff is going to drop like a rock. If I had anything high end of his, I'd definitely go put it on eBay right now with a BIN of about 50% of what his stuff has been selling for. Who cares if he's only 21 and considered by some a top 3 or 4 player in the league? Who cares if some experts have him tabbed as the best player in the league in 5 years. Who cares if some of Kyrie's cards are STILL worth more than him. The time to panic is now and that means sell!


Sell him now and sell cheap!
I agree with you even if you think you are being sarcastic. Sell now and sell cheap because in a couple months he will be like Bynum, Bogut, Howard, Oden, and will be bouncing off all types of injuries and teams and nobody in their right mind will pay 10% than so take 50% and run far far away.
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Old 04-02-2014, 01:59 PM   #25 (permalink)
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I think his stuff comes down a little but you won't see much of his higher end stuff pop up for reasonable prices in the offseason, so his prices won't come down a ton. I do think he will be top 5 soon but you have to be careful he doesn't fall into the Kevin Love category, where you produce huge numbers on a mediocre team. Love was super hot last year, has come back well from his injuries to produce huge numbers again, but has not really risen in value this year, sans the first couple weeks of the season.

Conclusion- diversify your collection.
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