5 Case Player Draft of 2010 Bowman Draft Baseball

[dachman]

Originally Posted by Tyler

Everyone has to pay before we can random

We should be about half way there. I still have some payments to mark down when I get home (iPhone right now) but that seems pretty good for only beig live about 12 hrs.

[dustin9900]

85.

Did you miss a spot? I would love to get in but I see there is a list but just a heads up slot 85. has no name! have fun!

[ExpFacilitators]

$0.38!!!!!! I AM LIVID!

Not really. Just throw in a nice top loader/one touch or apply my difference to your webcam thing. nice of you to mention it, but I've got the most slots and I do not mind at all

[auctiv001]

check this out guys. thought some of you guys, especially if you're a gambling junkie like me, might find this interesting:

It looks like most of the good hits are all in the top 50 picks. I was curious to know what my odds were of landing in the top 50 picks with my 3 slots to know how big of a gamble I was taking. I know absolutely nothing about stats so i went to a stats forum and asked them and the stats geeks all thought I was looking for a quick solution to a HW problem so they wouldn't solve the problem for me but they did give me hints. lol, so its some ish called hypogeometric distribution .

Anyways I found a online calculator that solves the problem for you if you plug in the numbers. SO with 3 slots out of the 262 I have a 52.8% chance of not landing in the top 50 slots. 37.8% chance of my name being randomed once in the top 50. 8.7% chance to land 2 spots in the top 50 and a whopping 0.6% chance of all three of my slots landing in the top 50.

So a 47.2% chance of me landing at least one spot in the top 50. I'll take my chances! Probably doesn't belong in a baseball card forum but just wanted to share.

[dachman]

Originally Posted by jlzinck

Paid for my 2 slots- jlzinck

Got you down!

Originally Posted by trouts2

I'm a little confused on how much I owe you, please PM me for a total price on my 5 slots. thanks

$95.28

Originally Posted by dustin9900

85.

Did you miss a spot? I would love to get in but I see there is a list but just a heads up slot 85. has no name! have fun!

It was open then it was filled again. Sorry to get your hopes up!

Originally Posted by ExpFacilitators

$0.38!!!!!! I AM LIVID!

Not really. Just throw in a nice top loader/one touch or apply my difference to your webcam thing. nice of you to mention it, but I've got the most slots and I do not mind at all

You were the one I though of when I realized it since you had a large number of slots. I'll make sure you get some nice supplies!

Originally Posted by auctiv001

check this out guys. thought some of you guys, especially if you're a gambling junkie like me, might find this interesting:

It looks like most of the good hits are all in the top 50 picks. I was curious to know what my odds were of landing in the top 50 picks with my 3 slots to know how big of a gamble I was taking. I know absolutely nothing about stats so i went to a stats forum and asked them and the stats geeks all thought I was looking for a quick solution to a HW problem so they wouldn't solve the problem for me but they did give me hints. lol, so its some ish called hypogeometric distribution .

Anyways I found a online calculator that solves the problem for you if you plug in the numbers. SO with 3 slots out of the 262 I have a 52.8% chance of not landing in the top 50 slots. 37.8% chance of my name being randomed once in the top 50. 8.7% chance to land 2 spots in the top 50 and a whopping 0.6% chance of all three of my slots landing in the top 50.

So a 47.2% chance of me landing at least one spot in the top 50. I'll take my chances! Probably doesn't belong in a baseball card forum but just wanted to share.

My minor is in Statistics so ask me anything! It is a hypergeometric distribution problem and if you want any math details I'll show them to you!

[Tai]

I'm convinced that random.com is a sentient entity that dislikes me so I stopped calculating any probabilities with these breaks

[dachman]

We have 35/58 payments in! 60.34%!!

I can set up an odds calculator for landing in the Top 50 depending on your # of spots tomorrow if anyone is interested.

Bed time for me! Night night BO I'll see you in the morning!

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by dachman

Got you down!

$95.28

It was open then it was filled again. Sorry to get your hopes up!

You were the one I though of when I realized it since you had a large number of slots. I'll make sure you get some nice supplies!

My minor is in Statistics so ask me anything! It is a hypergeometric distribution problem and if you want any math details I'll show them to you!

About to get my masters in stats on the way to a phd in finance. And yes I am a gambler too

[The700Level]

Originally Posted by dachman

We have 35/58 payments in! 60.34%!!

I can set up an odds calculator for landing in the Top 50 depending on your # of spots tomorrow if anyone is interested.

Bed time for me! Night night BO I'll see you in the morning!

That would be cool!

[dimer10]

Sent payment for my 7 slots. Thanks.

[auctiv001]

Originally Posted by Tai

I'm convinced that random.com is a sentient entity that dislikes me so I stopped calculating any probabilities with these breaks

i play poker regularly at the local casino here and after the numerous occasions of people hitting 1-4 outers on me I'm convinced that the poker gods hate me. I feel your pain.

[dachman]

Originally Posted by ExpFacilitators

About to get my masters in stats on the way to a phd in finance. And yes I am a gambler too

Sweet! I've always loved stats and was going to be an Actuary but engineering seemed better to me due to the lack of exams I would have to take.

Originally Posted by dimer10

Sent payment for my 7 slots. Thanks.

Got you down!

[cardinalscards4]

so it's $40 for 2?

[dachman]

Here is a handy way to figure out the probability that one or more of your picks will land in the Top 50

Hypergeometric Distribution: Probability Calculator

Population size: 262
Number of successes in population: 50
Sample Size: # slots you have
Number of success in sample: # of slots you want to land in the top 50

The box after Hypergeometric proability is the number you want. This is the probability though so if you want a percent you will have to multiply by 100.

So for example, say I have 5 slots. The probability that 1 slot is in the top 50 is 0.4313, 2 slots is 0.1937 and all 5 would be 0.0002.

If you want to do the same thing but see what the probability is that they land in the top 25 or 10 or something else, just change the Number of successes in population to that value.

Let me know how it works!

[Tyler]

Originally Posted by cardinalscards4

so it's $40 for 2?

Yes it is, that's what I paid

[dachman]

Originally Posted by cardinalscards4

so it's $40 for 2?

Minus $0.78 since I forgot to include the case break discount so you would owe $39.22

[cardinalscards4]

Originally Posted by dachman

Minus $0.78 since I forgot to include the case break discount so you would owe $39.22

ok i dont think im gonna send $39.22 haha ill probably just send the $40

[dachman]

Originally Posted by cardinalscards4

ok i dont think im gonna send $39.22 haha ill probably just send the $40

Lol ok! There will be some extra supplies or insurance if you end up needing it then coming your way.

[Straw44]

Payment sent for my slots. Thanks!

[Boo]

Payment sent...keep the change!!

[dachman]

Originally Posted by Straw44

Payment sent for my slots. Thanks!

Originally Posted by Boo

Payment sent...keep the change!!

Thanks guys! Got you down!

[Bruvydsb]

Originally Posted by auctiv001

check this out guys. thought some of you guys, especially if you're a gambling junkie like me, might find this interesting:

It looks like most of the good hits are all in the top 50 picks. I was curious to know what my odds were of landing in the top 50 picks with my 3 slots to know how big of a gamble I was taking. I know absolutely nothing about stats so i went to a stats forum and asked them and the stats geeks all thought I was looking for a quick solution to a HW problem so they wouldn't solve the problem for me but they did give me hints. lol, so its some ish called hypogeometric distribution .

Anyways I found a online calculator that solves the problem for you if you plug in the numbers. SO with 3 slots out of the 262 I have a 52.8% chance of not landing in the top 50 slots. 37.8% chance of my name being randomed once in the top 50. 8.7% chance to land 2 spots in the top 50 and a whopping 0.6% chance of all three of my slots landing in the top 50.

So a 47.2% chance of me landing at least one spot in the top 50. I'll take my chances! Probably doesn't belong in a baseball card forum but just wanted to share.

Gotta disagree with this. You can get skunked with the #2 pick and hit a gold auto at #64 or a super at #111. The luck is in the cards pulled, not the draft order.

[dachman]

Originally Posted by Bruvydsb

Gotta disagree with this. You can get skunked with the #2 pick and hit a gold auto at #64 or a super at #111. The luck is in the cards pulled, not the draft order.

Also true. Someone has also been working on the list of the superfractors that have yet to surface. Not sure how accurate it is but it should be somewhat helpful

2010 Bowman Draft Superfractors NOT Pulled Yet Thread

[ExpFacilitators]

20 left...woot woot.
let's draft

[dachman]

Originally Posted by ExpFacilitators

20 left...woot woot.
let's draft

We got over half paid in less than one day. Hopefully we can get the rest in today! I'll pester the remaining people via PM tonight.

Also the webcam and bubble mailers have been ordered off Amazon. Can beat $0.12 each for #00 bubble mailers and free shipping!

Also if anyone noticed, cases of this stuff went up $45 a case after Pat placed our order.