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Old 06-22-2011, 10:19 PM   #251 (permalink)
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Everyone has to pay before we can random
We should be about half way there. I still have some payments to mark down when I get home (iPhone right now) but that seems pretty good for only beig live about 12 hrs.
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Old 06-22-2011, 10:31 PM   #252 (permalink)
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85.

Did you miss a spot? I would love to get in but I see there is a list but just a heads up slot 85. has no name! have fun!
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Old 06-22-2011, 10:32 PM   #253 (permalink)
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$0.38!!!!!! I AM LIVID!

Not really. Just throw in a nice top loader/one touch or apply my difference to your webcam thing. nice of you to mention it, but I've got the most slots and I do not mind at all
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Old 06-22-2011, 11:00 PM   #254 (permalink)
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check this out guys. thought some of you guys, especially if you're a gambling junkie like me, might find this interesting:

It looks like most of the good hits are all in the top 50 picks. I was curious to know what my odds were of landing in the top 50 picks with my 3 slots to know how big of a gamble I was taking. I know absolutely nothing about stats so i went to a stats forum and asked them and the stats geeks all thought I was looking for a quick solution to a HW problem so they wouldn't solve the problem for me but they did give me hints. lol, so its some ish called hypogeometric distribution .

Anyways I found a online calculator that solves the problem for you if you plug in the numbers. SO with 3 slots out of the 262 I have a 52.8% chance of not landing in the top 50 slots. 37.8% chance of my name being randomed once in the top 50. 8.7% chance to land 2 spots in the top 50 and a whopping 0.6% chance of all three of my slots landing in the top 50.

So a 47.2% chance of me landing at least one spot in the top 50. I'll take my chances! Probably doesn't belong in a baseball card forum but just wanted to share.
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Old 06-22-2011, 11:19 PM   #255 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlzinck View Post
Paid for my 2 slots- jlzinck
Got you down!

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Originally Posted by trouts2 View Post
I'm a little confused on how much I owe you, please PM me for a total price on my 5 slots. thanks
$95.28

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Originally Posted by dustin9900 View Post
85.

Did you miss a spot? I would love to get in but I see there is a list but just a heads up slot 85. has no name! have fun!
It was open then it was filled again. Sorry to get your hopes up!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ExpFacilitators View Post
$0.38!!!!!! I AM LIVID!

Not really. Just throw in a nice top loader/one touch or apply my difference to your webcam thing. nice of you to mention it, but I've got the most slots and I do not mind at all
You were the one I though of when I realized it since you had a large number of slots. I'll make sure you get some nice supplies!

Quote:
Originally Posted by auctiv001 View Post
check this out guys. thought some of you guys, especially if you're a gambling junkie like me, might find this interesting:

It looks like most of the good hits are all in the top 50 picks. I was curious to know what my odds were of landing in the top 50 picks with my 3 slots to know how big of a gamble I was taking. I know absolutely nothing about stats so i went to a stats forum and asked them and the stats geeks all thought I was looking for a quick solution to a HW problem so they wouldn't solve the problem for me but they did give me hints. lol, so its some ish called hypogeometric distribution .

Anyways I found a online calculator that solves the problem for you if you plug in the numbers. SO with 3 slots out of the 262 I have a 52.8% chance of not landing in the top 50 slots. 37.8% chance of my name being randomed once in the top 50. 8.7% chance to land 2 spots in the top 50 and a whopping 0.6% chance of all three of my slots landing in the top 50.

So a 47.2% chance of me landing at least one spot in the top 50. I'll take my chances! Probably doesn't belong in a baseball card forum but just wanted to share.
My minor is in Statistics so ask me anything! It is a hypergeometric distribution problem and if you want any math details I'll show them to you!
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Old 06-22-2011, 11:20 PM   #256 (permalink)
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I'm convinced that random.com is a sentient entity that dislikes me so I stopped calculating any probabilities with these breaks
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Old 06-22-2011, 11:23 PM   #257 (permalink)
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We have 35/58 payments in! 60.34%!!

I can set up an odds calculator for landing in the Top 50 depending on your # of spots tomorrow if anyone is interested.

Bed time for me! Night night BO I'll see you in the morning!
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Old 06-22-2011, 11:27 PM   #258 (permalink)
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Got you down!

$95.28

It was open then it was filled again. Sorry to get your hopes up!

You were the one I though of when I realized it since you had a large number of slots. I'll make sure you get some nice supplies!

My minor is in Statistics so ask me anything! It is a hypergeometric distribution problem and if you want any math details I'll show them to you!
About to get my masters in stats on the way to a phd in finance. And yes I am a gambler too
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Old 06-22-2011, 11:28 PM   #259 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by dachman View Post
We have 35/58 payments in! 60.34%!!

I can set up an odds calculator for landing in the Top 50 depending on your # of spots tomorrow if anyone is interested.

Bed time for me! Night night BO I'll see you in the morning!
That would be cool!
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Old 06-22-2011, 11:30 PM   #260 (permalink)
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Sent payment for my 7 slots. Thanks.
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Old 06-22-2011, 11:32 PM   #261 (permalink)
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I'm convinced that random.com is a sentient entity that dislikes me so I stopped calculating any probabilities with these breaks
i play poker regularly at the local casino here and after the numerous occasions of people hitting 1-4 outers on me I'm convinced that the poker gods hate me. I feel your pain.
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Old 06-22-2011, 11:55 PM   #262 (permalink)
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About to get my masters in stats on the way to a phd in finance. And yes I am a gambler too
Sweet! I've always loved stats and was going to be an Actuary but engineering seemed better to me due to the lack of exams I would have to take.

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Sent payment for my 7 slots. Thanks.
Got you down!
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Old 06-23-2011, 12:01 AM   #263 (permalink)
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so it's $40 for 2?
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Old 06-23-2011, 12:09 AM   #264 (permalink)
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Here is a handy way to figure out the probability that one or more of your picks will land in the Top 50

Hypergeometric Distribution: Probability Calculator

Population size: 262
Number of successes in population: 50
Sample Size: # slots you have
Number of success in sample: # of slots you want to land in the top 50

The box after Hypergeometric proability is the number you want. This is the probability though so if you want a percent you will have to multiply by 100.

So for example, say I have 5 slots. The probability that 1 slot is in the top 50 is 0.4313, 2 slots is 0.1937 and all 5 would be 0.0002.

If you want to do the same thing but see what the probability is that they land in the top 25 or 10 or something else, just change the Number of successes in population to that value.

Let me know how it works!
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Last edited by dachman; 06-23-2011 at 12:26 AM.
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Old 06-23-2011, 12:10 AM   #265 (permalink)
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so it's $40 for 2?
Yes it is, that's what I paid
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Old 06-23-2011, 12:10 AM   #266 (permalink)
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so it's $40 for 2?
Minus $0.78 since I forgot to include the case break discount so you would owe $39.22
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Old 06-23-2011, 12:15 AM   #267 (permalink)
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Minus $0.78 since I forgot to include the case break discount so you would owe $39.22
ok i dont think im gonna send $39.22 haha ill probably just send the $40
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Old 06-23-2011, 12:16 AM   #268 (permalink)
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ok i dont think im gonna send $39.22 haha ill probably just send the $40
Lol ok! There will be some extra supplies or insurance if you end up needing it then coming your way.
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Old 06-23-2011, 01:28 AM   #269 (permalink)
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Payment sent for my slots. Thanks!
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Old 06-23-2011, 07:27 AM   #270 (permalink)
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Payment sent...keep the change!!
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Old 06-23-2011, 08:45 AM   #271 (permalink)
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Payment sent for my slots. Thanks!
Quote:
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Payment sent...keep the change!!
Thanks guys! Got you down!
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Old 06-23-2011, 08:46 AM   #272 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by auctiv001 View Post
check this out guys. thought some of you guys, especially if you're a gambling junkie like me, might find this interesting:

It looks like most of the good hits are all in the top 50 picks. I was curious to know what my odds were of landing in the top 50 picks with my 3 slots to know how big of a gamble I was taking. I know absolutely nothing about stats so i went to a stats forum and asked them and the stats geeks all thought I was looking for a quick solution to a HW problem so they wouldn't solve the problem for me but they did give me hints. lol, so its some ish called hypogeometric distribution .

Anyways I found a online calculator that solves the problem for you if you plug in the numbers. SO with 3 slots out of the 262 I have a 52.8% chance of not landing in the top 50 slots. 37.8% chance of my name being randomed once in the top 50. 8.7% chance to land 2 spots in the top 50 and a whopping 0.6% chance of all three of my slots landing in the top 50.

So a 47.2% chance of me landing at least one spot in the top 50. I'll take my chances! Probably doesn't belong in a baseball card forum but just wanted to share.
Gotta disagree with this. You can get skunked with the #2 pick and hit a gold auto at #64 or a super at #111. The luck is in the cards pulled, not the draft order.
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Old 06-23-2011, 09:01 AM   #273 (permalink)
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Gotta disagree with this. You can get skunked with the #2 pick and hit a gold auto at #64 or a super at #111. The luck is in the cards pulled, not the draft order.
Also true. Someone has also been working on the list of the superfractors that have yet to surface. Not sure how accurate it is but it should be somewhat helpful

2010 Bowman Draft Superfractors NOT Pulled Yet Thread
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Old 06-23-2011, 09:07 AM   #274 (permalink)
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20 left...woot woot.
let's draft
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Old 06-23-2011, 09:22 AM   #275 (permalink)
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20 left...woot woot.
let's draft
We got over half paid in less than one day. Hopefully we can get the rest in today! I'll pester the remaining people via PM tonight.

Also the webcam and bubble mailers have been ordered off Amazon. Can beat $0.12 each for #00 bubble mailers and free shipping!

Also if anyone noticed, cases of this stuff went up $45 a case after Pat placed our order.
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