Value Break RERUN! - *HIT DRAFT* 4 Cases 11 Bowman Chrome & 1 Case 11 Topps Chrome BB

[frankferry]

Originally Posted by Tman

PP sent for my spots and the #1 draft spot

lol good luck with that #1 draft spot bro

[smillz300]

Payment sent for my 5 spots! Thanks

[dimer10]

Payment sent, thanks.

[Prospect_Man]

Originally Posted by frankferry

np, i think chris_ac will pick it up

thanks for understanding, and i look foward to some of your future breaks

[frankferry]

Well we temporarily put blowout out of stock of 2011 bowman chrome. Does anyone know exactly how many cases they made this year. I know they stated that they made approximately %50 of what they made last year so its a shorter print run so im assuming around 5,000 cases. Also does anyone know how many cases were broken into ? I'm assuming about %40-%50.

I'm just wondering because I've been breaking cases of this myself and we already did a 4 case break and now we're doing another 5 case break.. I'm trying to calculate the odds of us hitting something sick like a harper superfractor auto'd or non auto'd or like the harper canary. There is tons of of superfractors and canarys that havent been pulled yet so I think we have a good chance of hitting big. But then again there is no guarantee but I'd still like to calculate the odds.

I'm really excited with this break and I'm suprised it didnt fill up sooner considering most of the big hits $500+ are still out there and the monsters are still out there $2000+++

[fitch123]

Originally Posted by frankferry

Well we temporarily put blowout out of stock of 2011 bowman chrome. Does anyone know exactly how many cases they made this year. I know they stated that they made approximately %50 of what they made last year so its a shorter print run so im assuming around 5,000 cases. Also does anyone know how many cases were broken into ? I'm assuming about %40-%50.

I'm just wondering because I've been breaking cases of this myself and we already did a 4 case break and now we're doing another 5 case break.. I'm trying to calculate the odds of us hitting something sick like a harper superfractor auto'd or non auto'd or like the harper canary. There is tons of of superfractors and canarys that havent been pulled yet so I think we have a good chance of hitting big. But then again there is no guarantee but I'd still like to calculate the odds.

I'm really excited with this break and I'm suprised it didnt fill up sooner considering most of the big hits $500+ are still out there and the monsters are still out there $2000+++

if we blindly assumed there were 2500 cases left, and 3 Harper Superfractors/Canaries to be pulled our odds with 5 cases would be...

1 in 166.67



Thats like picking red or black on roulette and getting it right 7 times in a row, or like picking a number between 1 and 166 and guessing it right off the bat...

[TxRangersfan]

"So you're saying there's a chance"

[frankferry]

Originally Posted by fitch123

if we blindly assumed there were 2500 cases left, and 3 Harper Superfractors/Canaries to be pulled our odds with 5 cases would be...

1 in 166.67



Thats like picking red or black on roulette and getting it right 7 times in a row, or like picking a number between 1 and 166 and guessing it right off the bat...

Originally Posted by TxRangersfan

"So you're saying there's a chance"

Well if ya add in the other superfractors auto'd / non auto'd / canarys of the good players that still havent been pulled - our odds would greatly increase to about 1:10

I just hope the cases B.O. is sending me are similar to the ones in the last break where will pulled 1 harper ref auto , 2 harper base autos , gold turner au , orange hicks au

It's possible to do that but unlikely.. For some reason im expecting 1 monster hit and some average stuff , at least 1 harper base auto ( we better pull at least 1 harper base au lol )

[BigSeph]

I'd say that as time goes on, the prospects of monster hits goes up.

Haven't heard of anyone pulling the Lawrie/Hosmer/Harper auto'd supers, the non-auto'd supers, or various reds of those guys.

Topps isn't known for their collation skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see one distributor wind up with a few hot cases.

I have seen a ton of Harper autos on the market though, I wonder what percent of those have already been pulled. I'd say more of a % of Harper autos have been pulled than % of potential cases.

I wouldn't mind picking up an extra slot or two if people can't pay, btw.

One day someone will scour eBay and keep a running tally of "what's left" in situations like this, i.e. 4 of 5 Hosmer red autos remain, 1 of 5 Hosmer base refs remain, etc.. and then use that to calculate readjusted risk on outstanding cases.

[fitch123]

Do we have a deadline for payments?

[frankferry]

Originally Posted by fitch123

Do we have a deadline for payments?

yea fitch , sunday night ( technically monday morning - thats when ill search for replacements if need be )

btw did u want to pick up prospect_man's spot? chris_ac said to ask u first

its 1 slot

[Troybuilts]

Originally Posted by frankferry

yea fitch , sunday night ( technically monday morning - thats when ill search for replacements if need be )

btw did u want to pick up prospect_man's spot? chris_ac said to ask u first

its 1 slot

Guys, RIGHT OUT STRAIGHT! Going under the knife Wed. (rotator cuff), trying to finish Christmas shopping. Will pay tomorrow.

[frankferry]

Originally Posted by Troybuilts

Guys, RIGHT OUT STRAIGHT! Going under the knife Wed. (rotator cuff), trying to finish Christmas shopping. Will pay tomorrow.

Np Troy and man good luck with the surgery. Your gonna be doped up for a good week hehe

[frankferry]

I have 2 slots from people who dropped out - ( prospect man (1) and papilis (1) ) - I PM'd fitch if he wanted em , if he takes them, i have word from jon_21, troybilts,wilson all stating their are paying tommorow - so if fitch grabs these 2 slots or if someone else does if fitch doesnt want them and the others pay we can get the draft randomized for you guys order tommorow after all payments are received. After the random - u may all B/S/T

[BigSeph]

I'll pay promptly if there are any open slots, just PM me frank. Already have 4, wouldn't mind winding up with 6.

[Troybuilts]

Payment sent

[nhsportsguy]

I'm still in for an extra spot, Pm me and I'll send payment right over if you need it!

[gr33d]

I'd do another slot as well... Lemme know

[cowboyzqna]

I would take another spot if one frees up.

[nhsportsguy]

Reserve payment just sent for my third spot!

[Jon_21]

Payment sent for my slot.

[wilsonsingles]

payment sent.
thanks,
Andrew

[fitch123]

sent for the 2 backup spots, thanks

[fitch123]

lets start the random!

[nhsportsguy]

Looks like that's everyone?!?!

Let's see the random!