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Old 01-12-2011, 05:28 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default 2010 Certified by the numbers

35 Platinum cards per box give or take. Sometimes you get Platinum blue, Emerald or Gold. Take out the inserts/RCís that count against the number of Redís /999 and 35 is pretty average.

150 Redís in the Platinum set each numbered to 999 so there are 149,850 cards out there.

So there should be 4,281 hot boxes made. Thatís how many boxes of 35 cards it would take to get to 150K

That tells you there should be 4,281- 8 box inner cases in circulation.

so thatís 34,248 boxes made.

Out of 6- 8 boxes cases I busted so far 1 case was missing the platinum. I asked Panini to send me some Platinum cards to make up for it but I guess they did not hold any back from the "pack-in" so the math should be good.

Just pointing this out for people that think they should sit on a case when they get one. Panini cranked out a lot more of this stuff than people think.

I'm still a fan and I'll be ripping even more of this once the price comes down. Hell cases were going for 499 last week as BIN's on eBay so that might happen soon!
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Old 01-12-2011, 05:45 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Sorry, bored here at work. Pretty snowy in Chicago.

1,427 master cases.

Each base card has a 1/1 Logo patch = 170 cards

Each base card has a 1/1 base card = 170 cards

A bunch of base cards have 1/1 autographed versions = 100 (guessing on this one)

Each base card has a 1/1 Platinum version = 150 cards

So thats about 600 1/1's on the base side. Not including 1/1 cards for the various inserts inserts. Odds of grabbing one are 1 in every 2.3 cases. Figure in the rest of the 1/1 and I think odds are pretty close to 1 per master of at least 1 per 1.5 masters. Seems about right to pull one. I've only seen about 30 1/1 logo patches from this years set on eBay so far. Thats not many considering the set has been out since November. Again leading me to believe there is a ton of this stuff still out there unopened. Blowout limits you to how much you can put in your cart. But the "other guys" are showing they have 40 boxes and 3 master-cases left in stock. So thats over 100 boxes just there. Again just saying...

Last edited by Grid; 01-12-2011 at 05:54 PM.
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Old 01-12-2011, 06:05 PM   #3 (permalink)
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wow i really hate math glad you did the math for all of us! i was hoping to pull a 1/1 shield this year but i am not too happy that they only used a small window takes away from the feel of pulling a shield.
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Old 01-12-2011, 06:14 PM   #4 (permalink)
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i got a case... it should be here tonight! hopefully i hit a platinum box or a 1/1
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Old 01-12-2011, 09:08 PM   #5 (permalink)
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The price on these isn't going to come down any lower than where it is now. This will be sold out from Panini soon and then they will slowly creep up. The lowest legitimate seller on ebay has them for $559 dlvd right now, which is a great price. The $499 price was from MamaBear which you can't count since he is setting up a big hit and run (selling some wax below cost but doing a bunch of presells that he will never deliver on later). I think this is a great buy right now.
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Old 01-12-2011, 09:30 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Thats really not to high of a print run so imagine how short printed last years was. It was the best product of the year and was dried up after 2 months unless you wanted to pay $130 a box. I am gonna build the platinum set soon, im almost half way done. I only need Teblow for the FF set and i may try the FOTG jersey card set. Certified is by far the most awesome product ever besides 1990 upperdeck lol
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Old 01-12-2011, 09:57 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mvelasquez21 View Post
wow i really hate math glad you did the math for all of us! i was hoping to pull a 1/1 shield this year but i am not too happy that they only used a small window takes away from the feel of pulling a shield.
Tell me about it. I look forward to the shields every year. But this year, with the little window, they are selling low which is good for my PC
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Old 01-12-2011, 09:59 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddearing View Post
The price on these isn't going to come down any lower than where it is now. This will be sold out from Panini soon and then they will slowly creep up. The lowest legitimate seller on ebay has them for $559 dlvd right now, which is a great price. The $499 price was from MamaBear which you can't count since he is setting up a big hit and run (selling some wax below cost but doing a bunch of presells that he will never deliver on later). I think this is a great buy right now.
2008 went from 75 a box to 55 in like 4 months and that was a great rookie year. 2005 is still every where unopened, just ask BO. The fact that they still are not sold out yet leads me to believe there is room to fall. 2009 was selling for 125 at this point last year and I doubt they made nearly as much as this.
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Old 01-13-2011, 07:19 AM   #9 (permalink)
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I wouldn't put too much stock in the fact it isn't sold out yet. Absolute, Classics and Prestige are the only products that are sold out at Panini right now. Absolute was pre-ordered very heavy and Classics and Prestige have been out the longest. With no low/mid end products coming out again for 2010, these will all start drying up in the next few months. The next mid end box to come out will be 2011 UD Football.

Personally, I am sitting on a bunch of Limited cases and Certified Cases for a few months. These are two products that I don't think we will ever see get below factory costs and both could easily be $100/box in 2 months. Just my two cents.

You may think I am crazy, but I think the product with the most chance for a high percentage gain right now is actually Epix. Stuff is selling way below factory right now and will creep up over the next few months. Letterman autos, vet autos, on card rc autos and tons of inserts. Most boxes have an extra hit. Right now, it's a bunch of bang for your buck. It was undersold initially because it was a new product line introduced in a bad economy. If you can sell some of the inserts on COMC or at shows, it's pretty easy to get your money back on these. If this stuff just creeps back to factory cost, thats about a 40% increase over its current levels.
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If you have to explain why it's a 1/1, then it's NOT a 1/1.

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Last edited by ddearing; 01-13-2011 at 07:25 AM.
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Old 01-13-2011, 11:12 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddearing View Post
I wouldn't put too much stock in the fact it isn't sold out yet. Absolute, Classics and Prestige are the only products that are sold out at Panini right now. Absolute was pre-ordered very heavy and Classics and Prestige have been out the longest. With no low/mid end products coming out again for 2010, these will all start drying up in the next few months. The next mid end box to come out will be 2011 UD Football.

Personally, I am sitting on a bunch of Limited cases and Certified Cases for a few months. These are two products that I don't think we will ever see get below factory costs and both could easily be $100/box in 2 months. Just my two cents.

You may think I am crazy, but I think the product with the most chance for a high percentage gain right now is actually Epix. Stuff is selling way below factory right now and will creep up over the next few months. Letterman autos, vet autos, on card rc autos and tons of inserts. Most boxes have an extra hit. Right now, it's a bunch of bang for your buck. It was undersold initially because it was a new product line introduced in a bad economy. If you can sell some of the inserts on COMC or at shows, it's pretty easy to get your money back on these. If this stuff just creeps back to factory cost, thats about a 40% increase over its current levels.
Well if the prices do drop off and you get stuck with those cases of Cert shoot me an email!
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