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Old 11-05-2007, 03:42 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Bowman Chrome Football Virtual Case Break

Really bored today here at work and thought this might be interesting.

Based on the insert pack odds from last year and tentative current checklist, I created an Excel program that can generate "virtual breaks" based on these 2 combos. For example if the random number assumes I hit a gold base refractor it then assigns a random card # in the set for that hit.

This should give everyone a feel for what mutliple case breaks might look like. Here were the major hits on 4 case break. If anyone else would like be to do their case break for kicks just post how many cases you will be breaking. I made some assumptions on the Group A auto list.

Base Gold Ref (3) - JP Losman, Edge, Boldin
Base Orange Ref (1) - Mushin Muhammad

Blue Ref RC (6) - Dwane Jarrett, Calvin Johnson, Jamarcus Russell, Zac Taylor, Brady Quinn, Trent Edwards,
Xfractor RC (9) - Jarrett, Marshawn Lynch, Craig Davis (2), Greg Olsen, Joe Thomas (2), Johnnie Lee Higgins, Jeff Rowe
Gold Ref RC (2) - Kevin Kolb, Patrick Willis
Orange Ref RC (1) - Dallas Baker

Group A Autos (2) - Jamarcus Russell, Drew Stanton
Blue Autos (2) - Chris Leak, Zac Taylor
Gold Auto (1) - Chris Leak
Orange Auto (1) - Sidney Rice
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Old 11-05-2007, 04:04 PM   #2 (permalink)
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neato - can you run one for a 5 case break?
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Old 11-05-2007, 04:21 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Here you go............5 cases. Better than my break. To save time I'm only listing big name hits.

Gold Base (5) - Tom Brady, Marvin Harrison
Orange Base (2) - Frank Gore

Blue Ref RC (6) - Olsen, Beck, Craig Davis, Calvin Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, JL Higgins
X-Fractor Ref RC (11) - Adrian Peterson, Lynch, Bowe, Stanton
Gold Ref RC (3) - Calvin Johnson, Chris Leak, Dwayne Wright
Orange Ref RC (1) - Marshawn Lynch
Superfractor RC (1) - Trent Edwards (6.3% chance on 5 cases)

Uncirculated Auto #d 10 - Lorenzo Booker
Group A Autos (2) - Ted Ginn Jr., Trent Edwards
Blue Autos (3) - Chris Henry, Jeff Rowe, Garrett Wolfe
Gold Autos (2) - Jordan Palmer, Michael Bush
Orange Auto (1) - Zac Taylor
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Old 11-05-2007, 04:27 PM   #4 (permalink)
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What about 10 cases.
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Old 11-05-2007, 04:31 PM   #5 (permalink)
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lol with 10 cases, might need to take a couple days off from work, a couple cases of redbull jsut to rip and get everything sorted.
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Old 11-05-2007, 04:42 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Cool idea jeb!

What kind of odds did you use for the various levels of parallels?
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Old 11-05-2007, 04:54 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Here you go on 10 cases. Only listing major hits. You can see the more you break the better your odds.

Base Gold (9) - Bush, Tomlinson
Orange Base (5) - no big names
Red Base (1) - Steve Smith
Base Plate (1) - Addai

Blue Ref RC (13) - Peterson, Edwards, Ted Ginn, Quinn
X Ref RC (22) - Edwards, Stanton (2), Bowe, Patrick Willis
Gold Ref RC (5) - Beck, Stanton + 3 commons
Orange Ref RC (3) - Zac Taylor, Dwayne Wright, Trent Edwards
Red Ref RC (1) - Dallas Baker

Group A Autos (3) - Brady Quinn, Trent Edwards, Adrian Peterson
Blue Autos (5) - Kolby Smith, Jamarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson, Gaines Adams, Joe Thomas
Gold Autos (4) - Willis (2), Ginn, Thomas
Orange Autos (2) - Sidney Rice, Troy Smith
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Old 11-05-2007, 04:56 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by otmack2o View Post
Cool idea jeb!

What kind of odds did you use for the various levels of parallels?
Insert odds from last year are listed in Beckett. Since the set is the same set up as last year it is pretty easy to set up.

I also assumed a 10% increase in production this year.
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Old 11-05-2007, 04:59 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainBOHICA View Post
lol with 10 cases, might need to take a couple days off from work, a couple cases of redbull jsut to rip and get everything sorted.
Cases only have 18 packs of 4 cards each so you can fly through busting this product.
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Old 11-05-2007, 05:06 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Hmmm, I just noticed something interesting on the 2005 & 2006 Bowman Chrome checklists. The SP autos are the first autographs listed (going by card number)...
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Old 11-05-2007, 05:08 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jebjeb1 View Post
Insert odds from last year are listed in Beckett. Since the set is the same set up as last year it is pretty easy to set up.

I also assumed a 10% increase in production this year.
Did you account for the additonal 5 non-SP autos in 2007? That takes care of your 10% increase in auto production, haha
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Old 11-05-2007, 05:48 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by otmack2o View Post
Did you account for the additonal 5 non-SP autos in 2007? That takes care of your 10% increase in auto production, haha
Yes I have all 55 autos in the mix.
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Old 11-05-2007, 05:48 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Very cool jeb. Wish I was smart enough with the computer to come up with something like that.
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Old 11-05-2007, 05:53 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by otmack2o View Post
Hmmm, I just noticed something interesting on the 2005 & 2006 Bowman Chrome checklists. The SP autos are the first autographs listed (going by card number)...
This year that will not be the case as BC75 Calvin Johnson about 20 cards in.

Here are the 10 I assumed would be group A. QBs always tend to charge more for their autos so I think it will be a lot of the top QB picks.

Adrian Peterson
Calvin Johnson
Marshawn Lynch
Jarmarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Drew Stanton
Troy Smith
Ted Ginn
John Beck
Kevin Kolb
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