Why are football card collectors obsessed with rookies?

[mfw13]

Just was wondering, why are football card collectors so obsessed with rookies?

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like this is the only one of the major sports which is so rookie obsessed...it's, almost as if any with acutal NFL experience doesn't matter. All we've been hearing is Luck & Griffin...all we heard last year was Newton, Newton, Newton, and before that Bradford & Stafford.

Do collectors realize how unlikely it is that any of these guys will actually end up having good enough careers to give their cards any long term value?

Consider that out of the nineteen QB's picked 1st, 2nd, or 3rd overall in the last fifteen years, seven are already out of the league (and only one of those seven, Donovan McNabb even made it to 80 career starts, i.e. five seasons). Out of the other twelve QB's, only two have ever played in a Super Bowl (Eli & Peyton Manning). In other words, the chances that these guys will be anything other than commons in twenty years is about 10%.

So why are people willing to pay such ridiculous prices for their cards, especially when you can easily get signed cards of HOFers like Montana, Bradshaw, Namath, Starr, etc. for under $100?

[ivecenanuff]

thats true, my collection is based on more established superstars

[Stats]

stars are established, catching a good rookie early is where you have a chance to make money if the guy gets hot

[MI Rob]

I also don't understand why an autographed sticker, or even on card auto from a rookie year is worth more than a "vet" card when they become established in the NFL.

They're both signed by the same person

[MI Rob]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Just was wondering, why are football card collectors so obsessed with rookies?

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like this is the only one of the major sports which is so rookie obsessed...it's, almost as if any with acutal NFL experience doesn't matter. All we've been hearing is Luck & Griffin...all we heard last year was Newton, Newton, Newton, and before that Bradford & Stafford.

Do collectors realize how unlikely it is that any of these guys will actually end up having good enough careers to give their cards any long term value?

Consider that out of the nineteen QB's picked 1st, 2nd, or 3rd overall in the last fifteen years, seven are already out of the league (and only one of those seven, Donovan McNabb even made it to 80 career starts, i.e. five seasons). Out of the other twelve QB's, only two have ever played in a Super Bowl (Eli & Peyton Manning). In other words, the chances that these guys will be anything other than commons in twenty years is about 10%.

So why are people willing to pay such ridiculous prices for their cards, especially when you can easily get signed cards of HOFers like Montana, Bradshaw, Namath, Starr, etc. for under $100?

Ben Roethlisberger, Rex Grossman, and Dree Brees were all drafted in the first and second rounds and played in a Super Bowl...

[Ray27Ray52]

Originally Posted by MI Rob

Ben Roethlisberger, Rex Grossman, and Dree Brees were all drafted in the first and second rounds and played in a Super Bowl...

Uber LOL at Grossman being drafted in the 1st round.

[saintsfan9]

Nobody buying luck or rg3 is going to make $. If you are buying to make $ then you pick up RC QBs like osweiller or other backups or guys like gabbert, tannehil, ponder or someone cheap who might be good in 5 years.

[mstng99tim]

Originally Posted by MI Rob

Ben Roethlisberger, Rex Grossman, and Dree Brees were all drafted in the first and second rounds and played in a Super Bowl...

He said overall, not rounds.

[MI Rob]

Originally Posted by mstng99tim

He said overall, not rounds.

Ah thanks for ruining it for me

[JChrist1732]

Originally Posted by saintsfan9

Nobody buying luck or rg3 is going to make $. If you are buying to make $ then you pick up RC QBs like osweiller or other backups or guys like gabbert, tannehil, ponder or someone cheap who might be good in 5 years.

Nobody? Didn't RG3s cards jump after week 1?

[Clarka3]

I think lots of people are obsessed with rookies in football because they are huge fans of the players in college (or high school). just getting on the train early once the cards start coming out.

[dvstringz]

It's all about Potential. Since Luck and RG3 were the top picks this year they have the most Potential to be Great Players or HOF'ers. Hence there cards can gain more value later on if they do become great. But of course that drives there cards up right now too because of that potential.

But if they end up busting like Jamarcus or Ryan Leaf, that value crashes. They were once high value cards too when they were first drafted because of potential. But that's the gamble of collecting, unless you PC them than that's a different story.

[addicted36]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Just was wondering, why are football card collectors so obsessed with rookies?

They are the most valuable cards to own of any player. Why wouldn't collectors want rookie cards? Seriously as a Redskins fan why would I care about buying a 3rd year card of Art Monk or Darrell Green (my favorite players of all time) when I can spend my money on there rookies? Why wouldn't I want rookie cards?

Originally Posted by mfw13

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like this is the only one of the major sports which is so rookie obsessed...it's, almost as if any with acutal NFL experience doesn't matter. All we've been hearing is Luck & Griffin...all we heard last year was Newton, Newton, Newton, and before that Bradford & Stafford.

Do collectors realize how unlikely it is that any of these guys will actually end up having good enough careers to give their cards any long term value?

Consider that out of the nineteen QB's picked 1st, 2nd, or 3rd overall in the last fifteen years, seven are already out of the league (and only one of those seven, Donovan McNabb even made it to 80 career starts, i.e. five seasons). Out of the other twelve QB's, only two have ever played in a Super Bowl (Eli & Peyton Manning). In other words, the chances that these guys will be anything other than commons in twenty years is about 10%.

So you said last 15 years there has only been 19 QBs drafted in the first 3 picks and used 80 games as a measuring stick for success. First off the QB's who were picked in the first 3 picks were

2012 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford Indianapolis Colts
1 2 Robert Griffin QB Baylor Washington Redskins
2011 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Cam Newton QB Auburn Carolina Panthers
2010 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma St. Louis Rams
2009 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Matthew Stafford QB Georgia Detroit Lions
2008 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 3 Matt Ryan QB Boston College Atlanta Falcons
2007 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State Oakland Raiders
2006 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 3 Vince Young QB Texas Tennessee Titans
2005 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Alex Smith QB Utah San Francisco 49ers
2004 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Eli Manning QB Mississippi San Diego Chargers
2003 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Carson Palmer QB USC Cincinnati Bengals
2002 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 David Carr QB Fresno State Houston Texans
1 3 Joey Harrington QB Oregon Detroit Lions
2001 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons
1999 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Tim Couch QB Kentucky Cleveland Browns
1 2 Donovan McNabb QB Syracuse Philadelphia Eagles
1 3 Akili Smith QB Oregon Cincinnati Bengals
1998 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Peyton Manning QB Tennessee Indianapolis Colts
1 2 Ryan Leaf QB Washington State San Diego Chargers

That 19 number is tilted bigtime because of the 1998 and 1999 drafts which accounts for 5 of the 19 players. When you remove those names you are left with a virtual who's who of the best QB's in the past 12 years. Besides 2002 and 2007 all of those guys went on to have good careers. As for 7 of those 19 being out of the league now that's not true either. 6 of these guys are out of the league (Carr still plays for the Giants). Out of those 6 guys when you remove Jarmarcus Russell all of those out of work players were draft 10 or more years ago. Also I know your wrong about Superbowl starts because McNabb started in a Superbowl as well and you didn't mention him. In short your numbers are off by a lot and when your numbers are off this bad of course your not going to understand why someone feels a way about something you don't.

Because some players are out of the league after 10 years is not saying a lot. The average career of an NFL player is still under 2 years. Finally where a player is drafted in the past was dictated by factors outside of "who is the the best". Up until very recently there was a huge guarantee money contract teams were committed to paying the players they drafted so QB's were not taken that high unless they were sure things. Before the rookie wage scale it wasn't "who is the best" it was more like "who is least likely to bust" Now that there is a salary cap on rookie wages you've seen the last two seasons where teams who generally were not interested in drafting QB's that high are willing to take the chance now. 8 QB's went in the first round the past two seasons and I believe that trend will continue going forward.

Anyway corrections aside I don't think any of these facts really matter. If you simply don't get how people get excited about rookies and QB's in collecting then you simply don't get the fun of collecting. Do you think that an Emmit Smith autograph has as much room for growth in value as say an Aaron Rodgers QB rookie card can increase in value? That's one of the reasons people collect QB rookie cards and pay a lot for them. Another is it's just fun to collect your favorite teams players and the most important player on your team is your QB. Besides Emmit Smith had his day, it's not the 1990's anymore. It's 2012 and it's time for someone else to shine.

[JChrist1732]

I think he is getting at why are they more valuable. There is nothing inherently different between at 2011 newton auto and a 2012 auto. The cardboard and ink ae the same. The autograph shouldn't change. It is stating the obvious to say we want them because they are more valuable, but why are they more valuable? I think this topic is bigger than just football cards and gets into psychology/sociology.

[realshemp]

Originally Posted by addicted36

They are the most valuable cards to own of any player. Why wouldn't collectors want rookie cards? Seriously as a Redskins fan why would I care about buying a 3rd year card of Art Monk or Darrell Green (my favorite players of all time) when I can spend my money on there rookies? Why wouldn't I want rookie cards?



So you said last 15 years there has only been 19 QBs drafted in the first 3 picks and used 80 games as a measuring stick for success. First off the QB's who were picked in the first 3 picks were

2012 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford Indianapolis Colts
1 2 Robert Griffin QB Baylor Washington Redskins
2011 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Cam Newton QB Auburn Carolina Panthers
2010 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma St. Louis Rams
2009 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Matthew Stafford QB Georgia Detroit Lions
2008 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 3 Matt Ryan QB Boston College Atlanta Falcons
2007 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State Oakland Raiders
2006 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 3 Vince Young QB Texas Tennessee Titans
2005 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Alex Smith QB Utah San Francisco 49ers
2004 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Eli Manning QB Mississippi San Diego Chargers
2003 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Carson Palmer QB USC Cincinnati Bengals
2002 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 David Carr QB Fresno State Houston Texans
1 3 Joey Harrington QB Oregon Detroit Lions
2001 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons
1999 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Tim Couch QB Kentucky Cleveland Browns
1 2 Donovan McNabb QB Syracuse Philadelphia Eagles
1 3 Akili Smith QB Oregon Cincinnati Bengals
1998 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Peyton Manning QB Tennessee Indianapolis Colts
1 2 Ryan Leaf QB Washington State San Diego Chargers

That 19 number is tilted bigtime because of the 1998 and 1999 drafts which accounts for 5 of the 19 players. When you remove those names you are left with a virtual who's who of the best QB's in the past 12 years. Besides 2002 and 2007 all of those guys went on to have good careers. As for 7 of those 19 being out of the league now that's not true either. 6 of these guys are out of the league (Carr still plays for the Giants). Out of those 6 guys when you remove Jarmarcus Russell all of those out of work players were draft 10 or more years ago. Also I know your wrong about Superbowl starts because McNabb started in a Superbowl as well and you didn't mention him. In short your numbers are off by a lot and when your numbers are off this bad of course your not going to understand why someone feels a way about something you don't.

Because some players are out of the league after 10 years is not saying a lot. The average career of an NFL player is still under 2 years. Finally where a player is drafted in the past was dictated by factors outside of "who is the the best QB". Up until very recently there was a huge guarantee money contract teams were committed to paying the players they drafted so QB's were not taken that high unless they were sure things. Now that there is a salary cap on rookie wages you've seen the last two seasons where teams who generally were not interested in drafting QB's that high are willing to take the chance now. 8 QB's went in the first round the past two seasons and I believe that trend will continue going forward

re-read his post... he said McNabb was the only one OF THE SEVEN THAT ARE ALREADY OUT OF THE LEAGUE to even get 80 starts.

Of those players on the list, I would only consider Peyton Manning and POSSIBLY Stafford to be part of 'a virtual who's who of the best QB's in the past 12 years'. The rest are average to above average QBs that will be forgotten 5 years after they retire. I leave Newton, Luck and Griffin out of the discussion because it's too soon to tell with them, but if past history is an example only one will end up being above average for their career.

[addicted36]

Originally Posted by realshemp

re-read his post... he said McNabb was the only one OF THE SEVEN THAT ARE ALREADY OUT OF THE LEAGUE to even get 80 starts.

Of those players on the list, I would only consider Peyton Manning and POSSIBLY Stafford to be part of 'a virtual who's who of the best QB's in the past 12 years'. The rest are average to above average QBs that will be forgotten 5 years after they retire. I leave Newton, Luck and Griffin out of the discussion because it's too soon to tell with them, but if past history is an example only one will end up being above average for their career.

Stafford? Ok nm your opinion just flew out the door with me buddy. How can you even remotely say that Stafford is a who's who of QB's when he's only completed 1 single season in his career and had 2 injury shortened season under his belt already? Big deal. What about Eli Manning who's won two superbowls on that list? What about Mike Vick? What about Carson Palmer pre injury? Good grief. And besides how can you leave out Matt Ryan who is tearing up the league now and include Stafford? They've won the same things, nothing. Opinions I know are just that but I gotta disagree with this completely because it makes no sense at all

[peeweeherman]

Personally i dont want a 2010 Peyton Manning auto patch card,unless its cheapBut,for the money i would pay for that i could get a graded rookie of him.So lets say some SP or NT Manning auto card,people are going to sell it for say between $150-$400 depending on the print run.

For that same price i could buy 3-9 bgs 9.5/psa 10 rc.Or i could buy one of many 1998 auto rookies of him.Which to me will hold or out perform any modern card.

Now newer cards,say Cam Newton there is to much hype behide him and the price you pay for his cards.You more than likely will never make a profit,unless he goes and wins a couple SB's.So when it comes to newer card,i go for those under the radar type players.

I went hard on CJ Spiller this off season and it has more than paid off for me.My main logic is when you buy a card far away from his rookie year,it just goes to blaaaaaaa.There are 200+auto patch cards every year,and they just get lost in the mix.Unless you are that die hard collector that has to have every card of that player.

[Astronix]

Football is way better than Baseball where the only thing people collect are Minor League prospects

[ivbaseball06]

I blame the companies more than the consumers. It's a hell of a lot easier and cheaper to get rookies to sign a bunch of stickers and then stock a product full of them. Then, they just sell it at the same price as they used to when they were paying more for vet signatures. They're making an absolute killing off of people buying wax. But we keep buying it, even when autographs of the top guys in the product barely pay for the box anymore.

[hermanotarjeta]

I disagree.

I think collectors in ALL the sports are obsessed with rookies.

Baseball- it's even worse, they are obsessed with minor league players more than major league players. Cards of pitchers who haven't even pitched AA ball (Dylan Bundy) sell for as much as those same rookie cards of multiple Cy Young award winners (Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw) - just doesnt' make sense.

Basketball- Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin - rookies all sold for $3000+, Blake DURING his rookie year

Hockey- like ALL sports, there is always the next Gretzky. 2005- Crosby/Ovechkin, 2006- Malkin, 2007 Kane, 2008- Stamkos, 2009- Tavares, 2010- Hall, 2011 - Nugent Hopkins - try finding any of their cup rookies for less than a grand.

It's not just football, it's ALL sports, it's just that when the players are drafted in football, and in basketball, they essentially START immediately, whereas in BB, HK, they may be in the minors for a month or 7 years.

[calculusdork]

(1) Players are only a rookie once. I would have said "they've only got one rookie card", but that's usually not true.

(2) Once a player becomes an established veteran, he has many, many autographed cards on the market.

And one reason that may be unique to football: (3) Players have a much shorter "life-span" than in other sports. I think this plays a part.

[hche]

I would have to say it's not just football. Baseball people will pay more for a prospect (not even rookie) superfractor or low numbered refractor autographs than let's say a Babe Ruth Cut Autograph.

[mfw13]

OP here....first of all, I realize that collectors in all sports value rookie cards....that's been true as long as people have been collecting cards. I remember back in 1987 when you could find ads in Sports Collectors Digest flogging 1000-card lots of Wally Joyner RC's as investents.

But, it seems to me that in football the focus on rookies is much greater than in other sports. You look at the sell sheets for just about every single football product this year, and it's Luck and Griffin they are using to promote their products. Not Brady, not either of the Mannings, not Rodgers....rookies who have yet to play a single down in the NFL. Or look at the draft itself, where the NFL goes out of its way to help card manufactuers produce "player touched for two seconds while wearing a suit and tie" jersey swatches.

In other sports, in contrast, the emphasis is just as much on retired players as it is on rookies. In baseball, it's the current stars and HOFers who are emphasized, and virtually every product has substantial HOFer content. Same thing with hockey, where HOFer autographed cards are often the most valuable cards in any given product. Even basketball has balance between rookies and HOFers (just look at Fleer Retro, for example).

But in football its all about unproven rookies, which the odds say are more likely to have utterly ordinary careers rather than live up to their rookie year hype.

[realshemp]

Originally Posted by addicted36

Stafford? Ok nm your opinion just flew out the door with me buddy. How can you even remotely say that Stafford is a who's who of QB's when he's only completed 1 single season in his career and had 2 injury shortened season under his belt already? Big deal. What about Eli Manning who's won two superbowls on that list? What about Mike Vick? What about Carson Palmer pre injury? Good grief. And besides how can you leave out Matt Ryan who is tearing up the league now and include Stafford? They've won the same things, nothing. Opinions I know are just that but I gotta disagree with this completely because it makes no sense at all

Superbowls have nothing to do with Elite QB status - by that logic Dan Marino would not be considered even though he's the best QB to ever hit the field.
I include Stafford because that one season is one of the best statistical seasons in the history of the NFL. And remember, I said POSSIBLY
Eli Manning is a lucky douche.
Michael Vick is by NO MEANS elite - look at his numbers, he is above average with some flash that make people drool. They'll soon forget once he retires and only has the numbers to stand on.
Carson Palmer is a Dime a dozen - look at Danny White, pretty similar early career but nobody remembers him, do they?
Matt Ryan is a good QB, so were Boomer Esiason and Bernie Kosar... how much hobby love do they get?

[nabzy28]

Get outta here with your logic and reasoning! lol! A few have hit on it above. Hype, perceived value, being seen as the savior of a franchise, cheaper for companies to get autos... and the list goes on.

I love it that people chase hot rookies and pay astronomical prices for them. Why, just in the last week, I've added an '01 Legends Staubach auto for $55 and an eTopps Jim Brown auto /13 for $60. I'm buying 2 HOFer, on card autos for the price of a box of just about anything out today. Maybe I'm just not too bright but we'll see where we're at in terms of value in another decade or so.