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Old 11-07-2012, 12:17 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Chrome Retail Will Really Hurt Hobby Sales

With hobby being delayed and retail out early this week there are already a ton of listings. I realize hobby has more autos but this is a set whereif you are selling you need to sell everything. Especially at the current prices. Looked at some completed listings and prices are already dropping for singles and hobby is still 2 days away. Not a good sign.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:25 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Brentandbecca have been all over this on twitter with Topps. "Supposedly" Topps told all retail to delay release as well, whether retail listened or not wasn't on Topps. That's their stance. They say they are "Hobby Friendly" but in this case, the case busters are going to have a bigger hill to climb to get in the black.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:31 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Hobby is only delayed until Friday, no?
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:31 PM   #4 (permalink)
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It will affect it yes, but the prices of the big hits, insert sets and base sets won't really be affected. Single inserts and base will be affected, and MAYBE color, but I don't think enough will be pulled to "really hurt" the hobby portion.

If my calculations are correct, case/box breakers are in for a treat with the amount of color that will be in each box. I think that craze will start the spending all over again.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:34 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I don't bust for resale, so if I can get my PC guys at a fraction of the cost all the better for me. In addition to that if you thought you would get rich off of busting anything Topp's this year you must be oblivious to whats been going on all year.

If you want to profit sell sealed or take your chances at hitting a good colored auto (which from breaks looks to be about 98% in hobby).

Doesn't bother me, only non-collectors/case breakers care, just saying.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:35 PM   #6 (permalink)
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the retail isn't really even selling that well to be honest, I think case busters are going to lose they A$$
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:36 PM   #7 (permalink)
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the retail isn't really even selling that well to be honest, I think case busters are going to lose they A$$
Gonna have to disagree with this, where do you see that retail isn't selling that well?
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:42 PM   #8 (permalink)
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the retail isn't really even selling that well to be honest, I think case busters are going to lose they A$$
I haven't seen a ton of big cards in retail. I think Hobby boxes are going to be loaded. Hoping anyways
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:46 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Gonna have to disagree with this, where do you see that retail isn't selling that well?
it's not selling as well as it did last year. cam newton xfractors and orange refractors were selling for like $60, andrew lucks aren't selling that high and he just had an awesome game.... it's "SELLING" but the values are much lower than last years.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:53 PM   #10 (permalink)
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the retail isn't really even selling that well to be honest, I think case busters are going to lose they A$$
I think you are right about case busters. Retail is just another item in a long list of fail for case breakers on this product.

Outrageous Chrome price this year.
Free listings flooding Ebay.
Weak NFL sales this year.
So-so draft class.
Friday release - not good for many reasons.
And retail has taken the extra bump in sales price for having your items up early. Griffins and Lucks should have been $15 out the gate on day one. Now they will be well under $10 along with other inserts and color refractors.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:55 PM   #11 (permalink)
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it's not selling as well as it did last year. cam newton xfractors and orange refractors were selling for like $60, andrew lucks aren't selling that high and he just had an awesome game.... it's "SELLING" but the values are much lower than last years.
I don't ever remember Cam Newton Oranges selling for 60. Maybe the absolute first one did, but I remember them selling for around 30 right on release.

Plus, the first RGIII Auto went for 280, which is about what Cam's were going for on release. Luck will most likely outsell the RGIII, which means he will outsell Cam.

I think the values are "correct", whatever that value may be. Not to mention the fact that there are 2 Cam-like players this year sales wise, not to mention Doug Martin is quickly becoming a #3.

Parallels are easier to get this year, color is easier to get this year, more people selling well, etc. Theres a lot more factors this year as to why this product looks to be a great product.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:59 PM   #12 (permalink)
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I think you are right about case busters. Retail is just another item in a long list of fail for case breakers on this product.

Outrageous Chrome price this year.
Free listings flooding Ebay.
Weak NFL sales this year.
So-so draft class.
Friday release - not good for many reasons.
And retail has taken the extra bump in sales price for having your items up early. Griffins and Lucks should have been $15 out the gate on day one. Now they will be well under $10 along with other inserts and color refractors.
Case breakers aren't relying on selling the single base of Luck and RGIII. Unless you are doing player lots, you are selling in sets, which are hard to make in retail unless you have bought a bunch.

The draft class is not weak this year. It is more top-heavy than last year, but people are surging just like last year. You have to remember that players that producing this year (Cobb, LeShoure, Rudolph, Ridley, etc.) did nothing last year. There will be people in this draft that produce next year when giving the oppurtunity.

And Chrome started at the same pre-order price that it started at last year (or at least it was pretty close) It's not Topps that made the price 100 per box, its all the people willing to pay it.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:02 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Don't forget any redemption earns you a blue wave pack as well... added value
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:05 PM   #14 (permalink)
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I don't ever remember Cam Newton Oranges selling for 60. Maybe the absolute first one did, but I remember them selling for around 30 right on release.

that's what I'm talking about the absolute first ones, which is all we have to go buy, the lucks are selling for alot less on the absolute first stuff.

I was selling the cam's, they were definately going for $60 on orange and xfractor I sold several of them the first week of release.

someone might have terapeak and can check the totals?

I used the exact same sales model as I did last year, the sale are "WAY" lower.

and my pulls are just as good if not better.........
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:08 PM   #15 (permalink)
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that's what I'm talking about the absolute first ones, which is all we have to go buy, the lucks are selling for alot less on the absolute first stuff.

I was selling the cam's, they were definately going for $60 on orange and xfractor I sold several of them the first week of release.

someone might have terapeak and can check the totals?

I used the exact same sales model as I did last year, the sale are "WAY" lower.

and my pulls are just as good if not better.........
Like I said, don't remember them ever selling that high, as I also sold during last year's release.

There are also two big rookies to chase this year, so spending may be getting spread out over all the players. If you wanted to PC a high end rookie last year, Newton was your guy, this year there are two to choose from. Means there might be half the interest this year, resulting in half the prices.

Absolute first sales arent the end all of what they are worth though. They will rest to around the same values as Cam did last year. I'm not worried about resale, I have 3 cases coming and I am very optimistic about them. Product could be the best its ever been due to all the new parallels and limited production. Retail isn't supposed to be a money maker, neither is Hobby, but its easier, especially when you get in at a good price.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:10 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Case breakers aren't relying on selling the single base of Luck and RGIII. Unless you are doing player lots, you are selling in sets, which are hard to make in retail unless you have bought a bunch.
I promise i'm just attempting to rationally debate the topic......

selling singles makes more money than selling sets....... the sets only sell for $50 pre-order, by the time people get the cases, they won't even move for that.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:12 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Like I said, don't remember them ever selling that high, as I also sold during last year's release.

There are also two big rookies to chase this year, so spending may be getting spread out over all the players. If you wanted to PC a high end rookie last year, Newton was your guy, this year there are two to choose from. Means there might be half the interest this year, resulting in half the prices.

Absolute first sales arent the end all of what they are worth though. They will rest to around the same values as Cam did last year. I'm not worried about resale, I have 3 cases coming and I am very optimistic about them. Product could be the best its ever been due to all the new parallels and limited production. Retail isn't supposed to be a money maker, neither is Hobby, but its easier, especially when you get in at a good price.

your going off false information though..... there were several big rookies last year, Cam & Andy Dalton were the biggest, then you had julio jones, mark ingram, randall cobb, etc that all sold well. people pc'd alot more than cam last year, locker, ponder, all the QB's, it was a bigger draft class, Im not trying to argue at all, but your wrong.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:18 PM   #18 (permalink)
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your going off false information though..... there were several big rookies last year, Cam & Andy Dalton were the biggest, then you had julio jones, mark ingram, randall cobb, etc that all sold well. people pc'd alot more than cam last year, locker, ponder, all the QB's, it was a bigger draft class, Im not trying to argue at all, but your wrong.
I don't mean that those other players were collected, I'm referring to just the overall view of who the "top" rookie was. Last year, it was Cam, this year it is Luck AND RGIII. just more "high end rookie" money to spread out this year as opposed to last. I know those players were in the Mid to High-Tier levels last year, As I remember selling Locker, Mallett, A.J. Green, Murray, Dalton, etc for a lot last year, but this year you have the same kind of deal, except for the key difference: 2 Highest Tier Rookie QBs vs. 1. I just have a feeling that there are just as many high end rookie collectors this year, but they are picking one or the other, therefore spreading out the money from those high end rookie people, which drags the realized value down because people are paying 30 each for RGIII and Luck rather than 60 for Cam alone.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:19 PM   #19 (permalink)
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your going off false information though..... there were several big rookies last year, Cam & Andy Dalton were the biggest, then you had julio jones, mark ingram, randall cobb, etc that all sold well. people pc'd alot more than cam last year, locker, ponder, all the QB's, it was a bigger draft class, Im not trying to argue at all, but your wrong.
Torrey Smith had already broken out and AJ Green was collected heavy and speculation on Ridley Mallett Alex Green and Shane Vereen made them sell good as well.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:22 PM   #20 (permalink)
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that's what I'm talking about the absolute first ones, which is all we have to go buy, the lucks are selling for alot less on the absolute first stuff.

I was selling the cam's, they were definately going for $60 on orange and xfractor I sold several of them the first week of release.

someone might have terapeak and can check the totals?

I used the exact same sales model as I did last year, the sale are "WAY" lower.

and my pulls are just as good if not better.........
I think this stuff will be fine. I believe I sold the first if not the second Newton auto on eBay for 225.06 last year. I know of one that sold for around $260 at one point, but most sold in the low $200 range. Griffin sold for $280. Who knows how many people are even looking for this stuff right now. I think we will have a better idea of prices after the weekend, when everyone will be looking for this stuff because of the Hobby release.

I have no doubt the market will be flooded with it for a while, retail is all over as of now. With cases getting ripped on Friday it will only get worse. Better list quick!

I hope Ajax is right on the color autos. That will make a very big difference on the value of this stuff. If hobby odds are really the same as retail odds for refractors, lets hope hobby is loaded with colored autos, or maybe even occasional boxes with extra autos.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:29 PM   #21 (permalink)
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I don't mean that those other players were collected, I'm referring to just the overall view of who the "top" rookie was. Last year, it was Cam, this year it is Luck AND RGIII. just more "high end rookie" money to spread out this year as opposed to last. I know those players were in the Mid to High-Tier levels last year, As I remember selling Locker, Mallett, A.J. Green, Murray, Dalton, etc for a lot last year, but this year you have the same kind of deal, except for the key difference: 2 Highest Tier Rookie QBs vs. 1. I just have a feeling that there are just as many high end rookie collectors this year, but they are picking one or the other, therefore spreading out the money from those high end rookie people, which drags the realized value down because people are paying 30 each for RGIII and Luck rather than 60 for Cam alone.

I respect your opinion, it's just not true. andy dalton orange/xfractors were selling for more than lucks in the first week of sales.... you could get a terapeak account and research sales and it would show you everything and help you kinda get an idea on sales vaues etc.

people were really chasing all the QB's for high money last year, so to me? your assumption is really far off........

Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallet. Colin Kaepernick

money was spread way more thin last year than this year........ by a large margin

then you had AJ Green / Julio Jones /Torrey Smith / Randall Cobb / Denarius Moore

RB you had Mark Ingram / Demarco Murray


all these guys were high money during chrome last year. higher than anyone you can compare them to from this years chrome sales.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:31 PM   #22 (permalink)
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The fact that this product was heavily ordered and printed and it'll be everywhere, Hell I bet even newborn babies will be busting packs before the doctor smacks their ass will hurt sales, but the big hits will still sell, but overall, I think this product will not be lucrative for most casual sellers.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:32 PM   #23 (permalink)
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I think this stuff will be fine. I believe I sold the first if not the second Newton auto on eBay for 225.06 last year. I know of one that sold for around $260 at one point, but most sold in the low $200 range. Griffin sold for $280. Who knows how many people are even looking for this stuff right now. I think we will have a better idea of prices after the weekend, when everyone will be looking for this stuff because of the Hobby release.

I have no doubt the market will be flooded with it for a while, retail is all over as of now. With cases getting ripped on Friday it will only get worse. Better list quick!

I hope Ajax is right on the color autos. That will make a very big difference on the value of this stuff. If hobby odds are really the same as retail odds for refractors, lets hope hobby is loaded with colored autos, or maybe even occasional boxes with extra autos.


in terms of case breakers if the bottom level stuff doesn't sell it knocks the wind out of the profit. this typically wasn't a "HIGH END" only chase type of product. if it is this year then that makes it hit or miss for case breakers. it makes it so there is no "SURE THING" but more of a "GAMBLE", where it used to be a sure thing.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:37 PM   #24 (permalink)
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I respect your opinion, it's just not true. andy dalton orange/xfractors were selling for more than lucks in the first week of sales.... you could get a terapeak account and research sales and it would show you everything and help you kinda get an idea on sales vaues etc.

people were really chasing all the QB's for high money last year, so to me? your assumption is really far off........

Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallet. Colin Kaepernick

money was spread way more thin last year than this year........ by a large margin

then you had AJ Green / Julio Jones /Torrey Smith / Randall Cobb / Denarius Moore

RB you had Mark Ingram / Demarco Murray


all these guys were high money during chrome last year. higher than anyone you can compare them to from this years chrome sales.
Honestly never saw Dalton X-Fractors going for 30, hard to believe that actually happened, if it did, thats way too much.

Going to plead ignorance here, but I see no reason why they would sell for that much less this year with no obvious changes in the product. Either way, I am satisfied with how things are selling, it seemed right to me.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:47 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Honestly never saw Dalton X-Fractors going for 30, hard to believe that actually happened, if it did, thats way too much.

Going to plead ignorance here, but I see no reason why they would sell for that much less this year with no obvious changes in the product. Either way, I am satisfied with how things are selling, it seemed right to me.

everything first week is "WAY TOO MUCH"....... this year prices are more on pace to be realistic "REGULAR" prices..... you usually have guys that overspend the first week or so.... but you got the top chrome rookies selling for $10 or less in some cases.... people are going to get screwed unless they have nice high end pulls in a case. watch the response you get after those guys that ordered 10-20 cases logon and talk about it...... same thing with platinum, people were pissed......
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