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Old 01-20-2013, 09:43 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default All players' prices eventually go down?

After a few months of being back in to collecting, I have come to the conclusion that unless you buy and then sell when the player is on a high, you are going to lose money on just about every purchase you make.

All players eventually are going to go down in price, once they retire and they are not in the public eye any more.

In basketball you at least have Lebron and Jordan. What do you have in football?
What would even be the purpose of trying to get an Elway rookie card, when an Osweiler rookie is worth more? This is assuming that in some way you collect for the purpose of the cards maintaining value.

Take a guy like Luck. He into the hobby already demanding $1,500 for some cards if not more. Where does he have to go from there? Is it wise to think that those cards are going to be worth $5,000 in 20 years when he is retired? Probably not. They will probably never be worth as much as they are at this time, right now.

The very best Peyton Manning autos out there are no better than a Russell Wilson, worse in most cases. Peyton Manning is one of the best qb's of all time.

I just don't see any upside to any cards, unless you can get in early and pick a winner out of a 3rd round pick like a Nick Foles maybe. You can get some of his high end cards for $300 maybe and then hope he wins 5 Super Bowls, but even then...his cards when he retires are going to come right back down to $300 again more than likely.
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Old 01-20-2013, 09:46 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I guess there is always comic books? All you say is true tho... If its about making money you just need to buy and sell at the same time
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Old 01-20-2013, 09:48 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Good point, I don't understand how some of these new QBs are selling for more than elway,marino, montana, etc..autos. I guess it's the hype around the players. People always want whatever is new and exciting.
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Old 01-20-2013, 09:51 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I'm not looking to make money, but I would like to know that I am making wise choices on who to collect and which cards to get and then seeing the outcome be beneficial in that the cards are worth 5 times what I paid for them in say ten years.

It's like a no-win proposition, because the rookie cards are always the highest and hottest cards right when guys come out and then there is really no where to go but down from there.
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Old 01-20-2013, 09:54 PM   #5 (permalink)
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If you want to compare football to basketball, last year I doubled my money on Eli Manning cards after they won and I lost money on Lebron cards after they won.

Football cards are the best investment, but the days of putting a card in a safety deposit box and opening it up to a fortune 30 years down the road are over. We're all day traders now!
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Old 01-20-2013, 09:57 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Elway, did not follow that model. Young, did not follow that model. In fact, I would say at least 75% of the HOF'ers have not dropped in price (not counting the product or era dropping as a whole). (For example, most 90's cards crashed, but that has nothing to with lack of public eye, and more so, they never really sold for Beckett).

But yes, if you buy the hyped RC's, or hoard the top three priced players, you will lose money. If you buy the hype in anything you will lose 'value'.

We should just be glad we don't collect baseball, were steroids killed the value of half it's top 10 dollar players the last decade plus.
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Old 01-20-2013, 10:08 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I dont think you can compare to vintage really either.. like elway and such.. Those cards are about the grade... an ungraded elway is about same as an osweiler auto but a high grade of course is worth tons more. If you want safe... go vintage. I keep very little that is new.... Think about it.... Manning Brady Rodgers Luck Brees.... all of them will sign autos for 40 more years. I switched my focus to vintage cards a few years back and I dont worry for a second about the value going down... I do realize that they probably arent going to explode like a Kaepernick but if you want safe it is the best way to go.....
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Old 01-20-2013, 10:25 PM   #8 (permalink)
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You are right
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Old 01-20-2013, 10:27 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Trying to make me feel old calling Elway cards vintage. (Insert boxing emoticon here.)

The OP noted when they retire so I can't really use now players.
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Old 01-20-2013, 10:36 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Another great example that does not fit the pattern noted by OP. Tony Gonzalez, he was selling at common prices two years ago, now a little above common. He really has no place to go, but remain at the same level (likely) or go up (less likely).
'
Going back to Elway, he was close to Young or Aikman price, before going out with two SB wins. He didn't drop in value, his cards doubled in price, and now he is closer or equal to Marino. (In graded, I do agree with the above, but in that case, you are buying more then the card.)

Marino, was one of those top three priced players....no where to go but down.

You just have to stay away from rc's or mid-level to low-level players, and the top three priced players, if looking for return.
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Old 01-20-2013, 11:07 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I dont think you can compare to vintage really either.. like elway and such.. Those cards are about the grade... an ungraded elway is about same as an osweiler auto but a high grade of course is worth tons more. If you want safe... go vintage. I keep very little that is new.... Think about it.... Manning Brady Rodgers Luck Brees.... all of them will sign autos for 40 more years. I switched my focus to vintage cards a few years back and I dont worry for a second about the value going down... I do realize that they probably arent going to explode like a Kaepernick but if you want safe it is the best way to go.....
On the Manning, Brady, etc. line of logic. Do you think there will be a premium for earlier stuff?
For instance, do you think in 2025 that a 2006 National Treasures Manning 1/1 will hold more value than a 2020 National Treasures Manning 1/1?
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Old 01-20-2013, 11:31 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by panamamyers View Post
On the Manning, Brady, etc. line of logic. Do you think there will be a premium for earlier stuff?
For instance, do you think in 2025 that a 2006 National Treasures Manning 1/1 will hold more value than a 2020 National Treasures Manning 1/1?
That just the point... by then there will be so many 1/1 mannings that it has to be somewhat watered down.... Everything gets abused or at least over used. People used to pay a hundred bucks for a one color jersey card... even a shiny refractor.... as more came the less valuable it all was.... not going to be anymore 1976 Paytons... No More 65 Namaths.... No More 58 Jimmy Browns....
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Old 01-21-2013, 12:42 PM   #13 (permalink)
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While what player is on the card is important, it's really not the most important issue on the "economics" of that card. The manufacturer, the set, the collectibility of that set/parallel/insert, etc are all just as important if not as important. And of course condition of the card is important as well.

While on surface it seems that there's no way Osweiler RC's should bring in more $$$ than an Elway RC--but that's not even close to how it really works. There were millions of 1984 topps Elway cards printed. Compare that to a regular Topps Osweiler RC and then you have your most true comparison. But comparing an Osweiler RPA #'d to 25 with a sick jersey or even a refractor parallel isn't a legitimate comparison IMO. As with just about everything it comes down to supply and demand. Regardless of any player's performance, any player's issues, etc--if enough buyers want a certain card and there aren't enough of them to go around, the price will go up. It's really that simple--it's apples and oranges.
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Old 01-21-2013, 01:46 PM   #14 (permalink)
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True, that's not really fair to compare a base Elway to a short printed Osweiler.
However, even the short printed stuff eventually, inevitably goes down in price.

There are a lot of players like Donovan McNabb for instance.
Look at his rookie autos numbered to 100 or less. He had a borderline Hall of Fame career. Not going to make it in there in my opinion, but he is close.
His rookie autos go for less than some Nick Foles type stuff would go for on eBay today.

What more could McNabb have done? Become a transcendent, Johnny Unitas type star? Win four Super Bowls?

The bar is set so high. You have to be the Michael Jordan of football, or else you will be forgotten as a collectible as soon as you are no longer in the public eye.
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Old 01-21-2013, 02:18 PM   #15 (permalink)
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I believe some of the current QB's best rookies will continue to rise as they add to their career resume. The Manning 1998 Contenders was under $1000 as far back as 2004, and now routinely sells for over $3000. Graded ones at PSA 9 over $5000. Rodgers and Brady contenders hit over $1000 fairly regularly. Eli's contenders hit $600-700 after last years super bowl (though now is back down to the $300 range).

My personal philosophy is to chase certain cards for players I believe in for the long haul. Buy low, sell high on certain players, then cash in and invest in safer cards. I did this with Kaep recently. However, I'm irrational when it comes to my Manning or Luck PCs. Those suckers aren't leaving the vault!
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Old 01-21-2013, 02:26 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Football is not buy and wait a long time and then sell. If you want profit you buy early in career, then sell at the peak of the career, not after they retire.
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Old 01-21-2013, 02:46 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drdduet View Post
While what player is on the card is important, it's really not the most important issue on the "economics" of that card. The manufacturer, the set, the collectibility of that set/parallel/insert, etc are all just as important if not as important. And of course condition of the card is important as well.

While on surface it seems that there's no way Osweiler RC's should bring in more $$$ than an Elway RC--but that's not even close to how it really works. There were millions of 1984 topps Elway cards printed. Compare that to a regular Topps Osweiler RC and then you have your most true comparison. But comparing an Osweiler RPA #'d to 25 with a sick jersey or even a refractor parallel isn't a legitimate comparison IMO. As with just about everything it comes down to supply and demand. Regardless of any player's performance, any player's issues, etc--if enough buyers want a certain card and there aren't
enough of them to go around, the price will go up. It's really that simple--it's apples and oranges.

Exactly what I was going to say... Nice job...
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Old 01-21-2013, 02:56 PM   #18 (permalink)
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I feel like this hobby turned into a business. Does anybody still collect for the pure fun and enjoyment of the cards?
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Old 01-21-2013, 03:08 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drdduet View Post
While what player is on the card is important, it's really not the most important issue on the "economics" of that card. The manufacturer, the set, the collectibility of that set/parallel/insert, etc are all just as important if not as important. And of course condition of the card is important as well.

While on surface it seems that there's no way Osweiler RC's should bring in more $$$ than an Elway RC--but that's not even close to how it really works. There were millions of 1984 topps Elway cards printed. Compare that to a regular Topps Osweiler RC and then you have your most true comparison. But comparing an Osweiler RPA #'d to 25 with a sick jersey or even a refractor parallel isn't a legitimate comparison IMO. As with just about everything it comes down to supply and demand. Regardless of any player's performance, any player's issues, etc--if enough buyers want a certain card and there aren't enough of them to go around, the price will go up. It's really that simple--it's apples and oranges.
Agree 100%... Imagine if there was a Elway NT RPA
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Old 01-21-2013, 03:35 PM   #20 (permalink)
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OP is correct. Sell when something releases to maximize returns. For every Kapernick who comes on strong a year and a half after his release you with find 10 more guys too hyped up like Locker who don't work out.
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Old 01-21-2013, 04:35 PM   #21 (permalink)
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I feel like this hobby turned into a business. Does anybody still collect for the pure fun and enjoyment of the cards?
That's the thing. When I come to this site, it seems the site is mainly for people that want to buy cases and then sell on eBay. Or buy some guy low and then sell high. There are always those undertones in every thread on here.

Call me crazy, but if I bought a case of stuff, I would most likely just keep it all. Never have been into a buy and hit big then sale sort of system.

Seems as though 80% of the guys that buy cards are more like stock market players. Don't get too attached to anything. Just strictly look at it like a business.
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Old 01-21-2013, 04:39 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Quote:
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I feel like this hobby turned into a business. Does anybody still collect for the pure fun and enjoyment of the cards?
I consider my Colts PC the fun and enjoyment side of it. I have put a lot of money into it and rarely ever sell anything from it. I like the design of certain sets and get into those.

The flipping side also satisfies my entrepreneur side. I like to speculate on lesser hyped players and then use the spikes in value I hope for to either buy new PC stuff, more wax or more players I am speculating on.

But to answer the original question, yes, for the most part. There were so many cards printed into the late 90s and the only ones that are valued are the high graders. Contenders literally changed the industry though with rookie Autographs. As another person said, its hard to compare a Osweiler Red Refractor Autograph RC to a raw John Elway RC. The only players who will rise over time are the Bradys and Mannings, etc. And even their most rare cards will someday be hard to find in high grades. But thats why we bust wax and collect. Because maybe we took a bet on one of the next greats and we hang onto something that becomes a $5000+ card.
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