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Old 07-24-2013, 03:16 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Matt Barkley - Thoughts?

I have been following Barkley for years and I am wondering what is value is going to be in the hobby and in the team?

Please let me know what you think, as I am buying up some Barkleys, put do not want to over pay for them.
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Old 07-24-2013, 03:18 AM   #2 (permalink)
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VERY, VERY hard to say at this point.

I mean, I get the whole idea of guessing, but we would need a crystal ball man.
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Old 07-24-2013, 03:34 AM   #3 (permalink)
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IS he going to pan out or be another Trojan QB bust? I understand he'll be 3 string for now, but I am really interested in hearing everyones comments.
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Old 07-24-2013, 03:43 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Hard to be a "bust" when you're selected in the fourth round really. However, he has lots of potential, and I can see him starting for the Eagles within the next two to three years. Unfortunately, his autos sell for very high because of the crazy USC fanbase, so I personally wouldn't dish out $40+ on a third/second string QB.
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Old 07-24-2013, 08:34 AM   #5 (permalink)
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players generally do not fall from a top 5 pick one year to a 4th rounder the next. My guess is he doesnt turn out to be anything special. Football minds do not whiff on QBs like that. We all know his potential but potential is why EJ Manual was selected in round one, for the QB position potential usually pays. When it doesnt there are usually reasons why. Would be a hell of a story if he did rebound though
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Old 07-24-2013, 08:55 AM   #6 (permalink)
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I was surprised that he fell into the 4th round. Kind of disappointed to me. I know what he can do. As long has he molds into the NFL team and play system and does not choke, he will do really good.
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Old 07-24-2013, 10:49 AM   #7 (permalink)
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I am picking some of his cards myself ever so often as I am a Eagles fan.
I think you should be jumping on them now since his value is very affordable. Vick we be gone soon Still don' t know if Foles can play looked decent last year. Kelly drafted barlkey and watched him for 4 years in college. He will get his chance and if came out last year his cards would be much higher at this point before the season. I think it is a very good buy at 30-40 and his shorter stuff does't sell that much higher at 60-70. Some of stuff you can pick up in the 20's where i try stay unless something I really want.
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Old 07-24-2013, 10:52 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted36 View Post
players generally do not fall from a top 5 pick one year to a 4th rounder the next. My guess is he doesnt turn out to be anything special. Football minds do not whiff on QBs like that. We all know his potential but potential is why EJ Manual was selected in round one, for the QB position potential usually pays. When it doesnt there are usually reasons why. Would be a hell of a story if he did rebound though
Very good point but he did have a shoulder injury and there defense was horrible. He didn't play that bad by his numbers. They were very overrated last year.
Also kiffin is a joke. I am not a USC fan but he has and will kill what Carroll built.
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Old 07-24-2013, 11:17 AM   #9 (permalink)
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USC QBs in the league don't have a good record... but you never know... maybe Barkley can break that...
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Old 07-24-2013, 11:22 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
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Very good point but he did have a shoulder injury and there defense was horrible. He didn't play that bad by his numbers. They were very overrated last year.
Also kiffin is a joke. I am not a USC fan but he has and will kill what Carroll built.
Didn't know that and appreciate the response and not trying argue here but....teams look at QB's very deeply at the combine. Yes sometimes they do slip, everyone likes to mention Brady but that happened how many years ago? People mention Russell Wilson but he was taken in the 3rd round because of his height issues people perceived he had. When you look at the NFL draft history of QB's taken over the past 10 years in the 4th round or later the list isn't pretty....


2012 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
4 102 Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State Washington Redskins
6 185 Ryan Lindley QB San Diego State Arizona Cardinals
7 243 B.J. Coleman QB Tennessee-Chattanooga Green Bay Packers
7 253 Chandler Harnish QB Northern Illinois Indianapolis Colts

2011 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
5 135 Ricky Stanzi QB Iowa Kansas City Chiefs
5 152 T.J Yates QB North Carolina Houston Texans
5 160 Nathan Enderle QB Idaho Chicago Bears
6 180 Tyrod Taylor QB Virginia Tech Baltimore Ravens
7 208 Greg McElroy QB Alabama New York Jets

2010 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
4 122 Mike Kafka QB Northwestern Philadelphia Eagles
5 155 John Skelton QB Fordham Arizona Cardinals
5 168 Jonathan Crompton QB Tennessee San Diego Chargers
6 176 Rusty Smith QB Florida Atlantic Tennessee Titans
6 181 Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan Chicago Bears
6 199 Joe Webb QB Alabama-Birmingham Minnesota Vikings
6 204 Tony Pike QB Cincinnati Carolina Panthers
7 209 Levi Brown QB Troy Buffalo Bills
7 239 Sean Canfield QB Oregon State New Orleans Saints
7 250 Zac Robinson QB Oklahoma State New England Patriots

2009 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
4 101 Stephen McGee QB Texas A&M Dallas Cowboys
5 151 Rhett Bomar QB Sam Houston State New York Giants
5 171 Nate Davis QB Ball State San Francisco 49ers
6 174 Tom Brandstater QB Fresno State Denver Broncos
6 178 Mike Teel QB Rutgers Seattle Seahawks
6 196 Keith Null QB West Texas A&M St. Louis Rams
6 201 Curtis Painter QB Purdue Indianapolis Colts

2008 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
5 137 John David Booty QB USC Minnesota Vikings
5 156 Dennis Dixon QB Oregon Pittsburgh Steelers
5 160 Josh Johnson QB San Diego Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 162 Erik Ainge QB Tennessee New York Jets
6 186 Colt Brennan QB Hawaii Washington Redskins
6 198 Andre Woodson QB Kentucky New York Giants
7 209 Matt Flynn QB Louisiana State Green Bay Packers
7 223 Alex Brink QB Washington State Houston Texans

2007 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
5 151 Jeff Rowe QB Nevada-Reno Cincinnati Bengals
5 174 Troy Smith QB Ohio State Baltimore Ravens
6 205 Jordan Palmer QB Texas-El Paso Washington Redskins
7 217 Tyler Thigpen QB Coastal Carolina Minnesota Vikings

2006 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
5 148 Ingle Martin QB Furman Green Bay Packers
5 164 Omar Jacobs QB Bowling Green State Pittsburgh Steelers
6 194 Bruce Gradkowski QB Toledo Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7 223 D.J. Shockley QB Georgia Atlanta Falcons

2005 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
4 106 Kyle Orton QB Purdue Chicago Bears
4 121 Stefan LeFors QB Louisville Carolina Panthers
5 145 Dan Orlovsky QB Connecticut Detroit Lions
5 152 Adrian McPherson QB Florida State New Orleans Saints
6 213 Derek Anderson QB Oregon State Baltimore Ravens
7 230 Matt Cassel QB USC New England Patriots
7 250 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Harvard St. Louis Rams

2004 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
4 106 Luke McCown QB Louisiana Tech Cleveland Browns
5 148 Craig Krenzel QB Ohio State Chicago Bears
6 185 Andy Hall QB Delaware Philadelphia Eagles
6 187 Josh Harris QB Bowling Green State Baltimore Ravens
6 193 Jim Sorgi QB Wisconsin Indianapolis Colts
6 201 Jeff Smoker QB Michigan State St. Louis Rams
7 202 John Navarre QB Michigan Arizona Cardinals
7 217 Cody Pickett QB Washington San Francisco 49ers
7 218 Casey Bramlet QB Wyoming Cincinnati Bengals
7 225 Matt Mauck QB Louisiana State Denver Broncos
7 248 B.J. Symons QB Texas Tech Houston Texans
7 250 Bradlee Van Pelt QB Colorado State Denver Broncos

2003 - QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
4 110 Seneca Wallace QB Iowa State Seattle Seahawks
5 163 Brian St. Pierre QB Boston College Pittsburgh Steelers
6 192 Drew Henson QB Michigan Houston Texans
6 200 Brooks Bollinger QB Wisconsin New York Jets
6 201 Kliff Kingsbury QB Texas Tech New England Patriots
7 232 Gibran Hamdan QB Indiana Washington Redskins
7 241 Ken Dorsey QB Miami (Fla.) San Francisco 49ers


Unless he shows something in preseason my guess is his prices where they are now drop so if I were holding his autos and believed in his future then I would sell them today, wait for the dip, and probably buy 2 of them for the price I sold mine at. Average down on his stuff if you want to hold imo and if your right and he is a good QB then you now have two for the price of one. All bets are off if he catches fire in the preseason but my belief is he stays at the QB3 position this season
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Last edited by addicted36; 07-24-2013 at 11:24 AM.
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Old 07-24-2013, 11:36 AM   #11 (permalink)
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I remember Kyle Orton being considered a top pick (maybe 1st overall) then he went back to Purdue for another season and ended up as a 4th round pick. Now compare them, as both dropped from top picks to 4th rounders. Does this answer your question?
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Old 07-24-2013, 11:37 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by superynaldo View Post
USC QBs in the league don't have a good record... but you never know... maybe Barkley can break that...
That's what I was thinking. I did take the Eagles in my monthly group break since I have a chance at his rc auto and Foles. We break multiple years btw
If you can land some Barkley autos for decent deals I say roll the dice , but his prices are high for a 2nd-3rd string qb IMO.
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Old 07-24-2013, 12:43 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted36 View Post
Didn't know that and appreciate the response and not trying argue here but....teams look at QB's very deeply at the combine. Yes sometimes they do slip, everyone likes to mention Brady but that happened how many years ago? People mention Russell Wilson but he was taken in the 3rd round because of his height issues people perceived he had. When you look at the NFL draft history of QB's taken over the past 10 years in the 4th round or later the list isn't pretty....

[COMMENT TRUNCATED]

Unless he shows something in preseason my guess is his prices where they are now drop so if I were holding his autos and believed in his future then I would sell them today, wait for the dip, and probably buy 2 of them for the price I sold mine at. Average down on his stuff if you want to hold imo and if your right and he is a good QB then you now have two for the price of one. All bets are off if he catches fire in the preseason but my belief is he stays at the QB3 position this season
Goodness, what research! I generally agree with everything you have here, but I think people are optimistic partly because, though, he was a 4th-rounder, he was still just the 4th QB taken up until that point. Yeah, I know teams weren't high on QBs this year, but maybe this is the year a Barkley-type QB proves critics wrong. Would I put money on that? Heck no. Teams know it's hard to find QBs, which is why they're over-drafted so much.

I think what your list shows is that QB is one of the most difficult positions to draft for. I wish your list had included the first 3 rounds drafted - because I suspect even there you'll find mostly busts (how much have people lost on QBs from 2007?)

For anyone thinking about "investing" in young QBs - just know it's high risk/high reward, to put it plainly. Barkley might not cost much today, but if he flames bad, then don't expect to even recoup what you've spent (think: Trent Edwards/Jimmy Clausen). Even if does decent, what is his value ceiling? Well, unless he turns ultra-flashy or starts breaking records you might be able to expect something like Matt Ryan/Flacco. How often does a Brady, Manning, Rodgers come along? Well, unfortunately, not that often.

But then again, hope springs eternal.
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Old 07-24-2013, 12:48 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by superynaldo View Post
USC QBs in the league don't have a good record... but you never know... maybe Barkley can break that...
Tell me any school that consistently puts out quality QBs in the NFL...USC has just had a lot of QBs over-drafted, which makes it stand out.
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