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Old 11-20-2013, 08:54 PM   #3151 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by EricInCT View Post
PLAY OF THE YEAR #3

We have a doozy in store this evening in the MAC. You have one team who views this as their superbowl in Toledo and another team that has their sights on a very respectable BCS bowl with a win. I have looked over the numbers and I have decided to pass completely on a side. I just don’t see a value in either team and see them as being very evenly matched: porous defense, running QB, strong passing game and quality skilled players. You are a better man than I am if you are playing a side outside of a teaser. One thing I am confident about tonight, however, is that this will be a high scoring affair. Both teams can move the ball very easily on the other’s defense. Both teams have quality QBs but the difference is the speed at RB for Toledo….and that is the edge I see tonight. I watched every play of the Ball State – N Ill game last week. Wenning dropped back and rarely ran with the ball. They rushed the ball with a decent back but one thing I noticed was that BS’s running back was particularly slow. Yes he bashed through the line and did a good job carrying defenders for extra yardage….but they lacked speed in the running game. With that said they still ended up with BS’s Edwards with 29 carries for 156 yards and a TD @ 5.4 ypc. Conversely the closest Toledo has played to what they will see tonight on offense (style-wise) was Navy…..they allowed 44 pts in OT, couldn’t hold a 10 pt lead in regulation and surrendered 420 yards rushing. I look for the RBs to reach the edge on either side quicker than what N ILL has seen recently and the QB to take off up the middle to extend drives.

Toledo is averaging 35 pts and 106 in their last two games. Northern Illinois boasts the sixth-best offense in the country at 44.5 pts. You can say that NILL hasn’t played anyone and that is certainly a valid argument, however they carved up ball state (one of the best teams by far they have faced) and landed on 48 pts when the final gun sounded, a field goal better than their average. Lynch ended up with a yeoman’s effort of 470 yards and accounted for 4 tds. Yes, I watched the game and saw the 3 TDs scored in the final few minutes but that isn’t the point. I don’t think Toledo is as good as Ball state is defensively and I believe Toledo brings speed at the RB position to the table that will give N ILL fits and prolong drives that will result into points. Ball state had almost 500 of offense though it only translated to 27 pts. I think Toledo will strike quicker and feed off the crowd and not played as controlling a game as Ball state tried last week. The best thing for over bettors tonight is a quick strike by Toledo and perhaps a double digit lead. Against Bowling Green Toledo ran out to a 21-0 lead only to have to come from behind late to win the game. Toledo led Navy by 10 in the 4th and had to win in OT. Toledo led last week against buffalo 38-0 and won 51-41. I watched that QB for Buff last night against Miami Ohio…he is absolutely horrible. He passed for a school-record 500 yards against this def of Toledo. You can point to the fact that much of it came in garbage time, however if they led and play prevent Lynch will score 14+ in a 5 minute span given the opportunity. What if Lynch is up 21-3 after one quarter? I have confidence that N ILL will give up 35 points in this game, perhaps more.

My full plan for the evening is this:

1H over 35.5
1H team total N ILL
1H team total Toledo
Gm over
Gm tt N ILL
Gm tt Toledo

At the current numbers you will be around 37.5 or 38 for NILL and 35 or so for Toledo.
Cut those numbers in half and you are looking at 18.5 vs 17.5 for the first half, or thereabouts. I honestly see one team having 21+ pts at the half. Additionally, it wouldn’t be a stretch to have the other at 17 to 20. A score of 21-17 will hit the over and a team total and make you 2-1 in the first half….perhaps even a push if you get 17. A 21-20 game at the half will make you 3-0 and put you well on the way to all three overs and a 6-0 night.

I took this same approach last week with ball state vs N ILL and was 4-2. I had over 31 team total gm for Ball state and had 24 at the half…..only 3 pts second half. The other loss was just missing on the over for N ILL on team total 1H. I came so close to 6-0 last week, onight I get there.

Good luck

I went with you, but looks like they are all losers, hope you didnt lose 10,000 dollars, or something like that
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Old 11-20-2013, 08:56 PM   #3152 (permalink)
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Plenty plenty plenty time for over to hit
Niu could put up 28 and give up 28 in twenty minutes
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Old 11-20-2013, 09:07 PM   #3153 (permalink)
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Plenty plenty plenty time for over to hit
Niu could put up 28 and give up 28 in twenty minutes
dont think so, game is no where near an over
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Old 11-20-2013, 09:08 PM   #3154 (permalink)
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another interception, wow, first mac game I bet and I lose every bet, mac sucks
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Old 11-20-2013, 09:25 PM   #3155 (permalink)
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American $$, Northwestern looking good too
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Old 11-20-2013, 10:21 PM   #3156 (permalink)
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Eh it's a little high. But I also thought the Suns were going to finish off the Kings after being up 14 late in the 3rd.
Yeah I know ended up going from a 3 teamer to a 2 teamer cause they freaking pushed Phoenix +3 Ouchers!!! But hey at least I still won money right?
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Old 11-20-2013, 11:22 PM   #3157 (permalink)
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Damn the NIU over bets.
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Old 11-21-2013, 12:03 AM   #3158 (permalink)
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Took American +26.5, ISU +7, Northwestern -3.5

and NIU -3 for NCAAF
4-0 on these tonight, also put a bit on this, first parlay hit in awhile! Good day for me.

Win 6 Team Parlay
Win 11/20/13 8:00pm College Basketball 529 Northwestern -3½ -110* vs Illinois Chicago
Win 11/20/13 8:00pm College Basketball 535 Wichita State -6½ -110* vs Tulsa
Win 11/20/13 9:00pm College Basketball 537 Valparaiso/Evansville Over 150½ -110*
Win 11/20/13 9:30pm College Basketball 539 Iowa State +7 -110* vs BYU
Win 11/20/13 10:00pm College Basketball 542 Fresno State -3½ -110* vs Cal Poly SLO
Win 11/20/13 10:00pm College Basketball 543 San Jose State +9 -110* vs Pepperdine
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Old 11-21-2013, 12:13 PM   #3159 (permalink)
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:turkey:

well that was probably the worst game I have seen in a long time.

2 times inside the 10 and zero points, 3 missed fgs....and quite frankly Toledo looked scared as hell to pass the ball.

I needed one garbage point more to hit some big teasers and of course that never happened since Toledo had 3 shots at it and I don't think they moved the ball a foot.


Luckily I had the over and NIU 2nd half for 50%....initially started with the under then I came to my senses and went over..... but still left me feeling empty.

a game like that really shakes your confidence.

sorry for those that tailed those sheety picks.
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Old 11-21-2013, 12:14 PM   #3160 (permalink)
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4-0 on these tonight, also put a bit on this, first parlay hit in awhile! Good day for me.

Win 6 Team Parlay
Win 11/20/13 8:00pm College Basketball 529 Northwestern -3½ -110* vs Illinois Chicago
Win 11/20/13 8:00pm College Basketball 535 Wichita State -6½ -110* vs Tulsa
Win 11/20/13 9:00pm College Basketball 537 Valparaiso/Evansville Over 150½ -110*
Win 11/20/13 9:30pm College Basketball 539 Iowa State +7 -110* vs BYU
Win 11/20/13 10:00pm College Basketball 542 Fresno State -3½ -110* vs Cal Poly SLO
Win 11/20/13 10:00pm College Basketball 543 San Jose State +9 -110* vs Pepperdine
congrats on gretting that san jose game!
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Old 11-21-2013, 12:33 PM   #3161 (permalink)
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congrats on gretting that san jose game!
Thanks Eric, after watching the game they played against Milwaukee I thought they could hang with Pepperdine, got pretty lucky with how well they shot the 3 though.

I'm on Georgetown 1H and Game and Also UMass early today
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:09 PM   #3162 (permalink)
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I went with you, but looks like they are all losers, hope you didnt lose 10,000 dollars, or something like that
Yeah... I went with Eric as well. It all made logical sense at the time. Yet another game that will constantly make you second guess yourself for the rest of the season lol. Ah well, at least I put small amounts on those and took NIU -3 with big $$. Came out ahead, but not by much haha
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Old 11-21-2013, 03:59 PM   #3163 (permalink)
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Overall 96-86-6

Plays
NO -9

NBA I like the Clippers ML at +190 odds. Not touching NBA with my money at this time though. Game should stay close with both teams having the ability to score at a high rate.
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Old 11-21-2013, 04:03 PM   #3164 (permalink)
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Looking to continue my hot streak. Took Atlanta +10.
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Old 11-21-2013, 08:31 PM   #3165 (permalink)
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Went with UAB ML and +11....they should have won that one. Also on Marquette 1H -12 and -20 game
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Old 11-22-2013, 10:31 AM   #3166 (permalink)
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Looking to continue my hot streak. Took Atlanta +10.
It continues.

Miami +4.5
Cleveland -1
Washington +6

4 Team Teaser

Cleveland Browns +12
Miami Dolphins +17½
Tennessee Titans +12
San Diego Chargers +17½
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Old 11-22-2013, 11:40 AM   #3167 (permalink)
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I was liking NO -10 until Sproles was listed as inactive. Went heavy on ATL +10 and the Under after that. Wasn't a bad night

NCAAF tonight: Am I crazy for liking Navy in this one? It's basically a pick 'em (San Jose State -2.5 last I saw) at home. Looking at the injury report, SJS has multiple starters doubtful as well. Someone tell me something I don't know about Navy to convince me not to take the Navy ML...
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Old 11-22-2013, 12:47 PM   #3168 (permalink)
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Lost a bit yesterday, still up big for the week. On GTown 1H and Game which is looking good. Also on Charlotte and Loyola Marymount early for -3.5 and +3 respectively
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Old 11-22-2013, 01:22 PM   #3169 (permalink)
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Still no ML up on Bovada for the game .
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Old 11-22-2013, 01:32 PM   #3170 (permalink)
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Still no ML up on Bovada for the game .
What else is new? I left that site for this reason.
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Old 11-22-2013, 06:16 PM   #3171 (permalink)
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If anyone can help me to lock down a ML for the Gophers tonight, shoot me a PM. 5Dimes looks like too much of a hassle just to set up an account for one ML.
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Old 11-22-2013, 08:11 PM   #3172 (permalink)
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With all the BB action tonight, I figured that this thread would be a little more active than it is! Any last minute takers on Navy ML (ncaafb)? I'm in.. Not throwing big $ at it. A hundy will suffice. GL to everyone tonight and this weekend
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Old 11-23-2013, 07:32 AM   #3173 (permalink)
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Overall 96-87-6

Time to turn it around today. It has been an ugly 2 weeks. Limiting plays a little this week and going to turn this around.

Here are the plays so far on the ticket:

Houston -3 2 units
Mich St. -6.5 2 units
Duke -7 2 units
Mizzou -3 2 units
Illinois -7
Vandy +3
Minnesota +16.5

Thinking about playing it safe and putting these into teasers as well. Too many .5 point losses last couple weeks.

GL all

Last edited by chitownbears22; 11-23-2013 at 10:51 AM.
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Old 11-23-2013, 12:26 PM   #3174 (permalink)
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$55 Minnesota +17
$12 Cobb over 74.5
$10 Abrederris under 76
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Old 11-23-2013, 08:04 PM   #3175 (permalink)
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Anyone else take a beating today? Im done with the oregon ducks
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