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Old 07-24-2008, 04:51 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default 1 Tin The Cup w/scans... Sweetness!

Picked up one tine of the The Cup at the local shop yesterday. The cards are fantastic looking. What are the odds of the /99 rookie patch autos?

Base #/249:
Zetterberg
Rob Blake

Gold Jersey #/25:
Cam Ward



Patch Auto #/75:
Patrik Elias




and the big one



Rookie Patch auto #/99:
Nicklas Backstrom 3-clr
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Old 07-24-2008, 04:52 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Sweet Backstrom! That Ward is to shabby either! Did you get a Nicklas Lidstrom Base? Thanks -Cameron
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Old 07-24-2008, 04:53 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Ooops, just saw you listed the base. You got the Zetterberg though! interested in trading?
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Old 07-24-2008, 05:05 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Great tin!
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Old 07-24-2008, 05:06 PM   #5 (permalink)
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i could trade the Zetterberg. Always looking for Sharks or even a low-end Toews or Kane rc.
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Old 07-24-2008, 05:06 PM   #6 (permalink)
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No guaranteed odds on a RC AU Patch #/99. I ripped 2 cases and didn't get one.
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Old 07-24-2008, 05:21 PM   #7 (permalink)
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If there are 66 rookies auto patch #/249 and 6 #/99 then at the best you have the following:

66 x 249 = 16434 level 2 rookie auto patch

6 x 99 = 594 level 1 rookie auto patch

Total = 17,028

594/17028 = .0348 or 3.5% of getting a rookie numbered to 99.

1 in 28.7 packs or 1 in 4.77 cases at the best.

So say 1:5 cases has a level 1 auto on the average.

That works out to be about 3000 - 6 box cases total. Does that sound correct?
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Old 07-24-2008, 05:45 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vintage Collector View Post
If there are 66 rookies auto patch #/249 and 6 #/99 then at the best you have the following:

66 x 249 = 16434 level 2 rookie auto patch

6 x 99 = 594 level 1 rookie auto patch

Total = 17,028

594/17028 = .0348 or 3.5% of getting a rookie numbered to 99.

1 in 28.7 packs or 1 in 4.77 cases at the best.

So say 1:5 cases has a level 1 auto on the average.

That works out to be about 3000 - 6 box cases total. Does that sound correct?
There are 1/2 cases too!!!
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Old 07-24-2008, 06:51 PM   #9 (permalink)
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PM sent
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Old 07-24-2008, 06:53 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I just double checked your math and it looks right. I wasn't sure how many level 2 #/249 rookies there were. Assuming there are 66 and you ALWAYS get a rookie patch auto then 1 in every 4.78 cases would be the odds. Have there been any tins that that haven't had a rookie patch auto in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vintage Collector View Post
If there are 66 rookies auto patch #/249 and 6 #/99 then at the best you have the following:

66 x 249 = 16434 level 2 rookie auto patch

6 x 99 = 594 level 1 rookie auto patch

Total = 17,028

594/17028 = .0348 or 3.5% of getting a rookie numbered to 99.

1 in 28.7 packs or 1 in 4.77 cases at the best.

So say 1:5 cases has a level 1 auto on the average.

That works out to be about 3000 - 6 box cases total. Does that sound correct?
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Old 07-24-2008, 06:55 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fonda1119 View Post
I just double checked your math and it looks right. I wasn't sure how many level 2 #/249 rookies there were. Assuming there are 66 and you ALWAYS get a rookie patch auto then 1 in every 4.78 cases would be the odds. Have there been any tins that that haven't had a rookie patch auto in it?
Unless UD F's up.........there should be at least 1 ARP #/249 in each Tin
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Old 07-24-2008, 07:08 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by hockeyjunkie99 View Post
Unless UD F's up.........there should be at least 1 ARP #/249 in each Tin
Ha, it is UD after all. What about the gold variations? Would they affect the odds or are the proportions the same?
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Old 07-24-2008, 07:09 PM   #13 (permalink)
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did you get my PM?
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Old 07-24-2008, 07:12 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fonda1119 View Post
Ha, it is UD after all. What about the gold variations? Would they affect the odds or are the proportions the same?
ARC #/249 per tin regardless!!! Gold versions are a bonus!
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