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Old 01-10-2017, 11:07 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default 2015-16 Upper Deck Series 1 - which product is the best investment?

New poster here, so I apologize if my question is somehow inappropriate.

I am tempted to buy a case of some sealed 2015-16 Upper Deck Series 1 hockey. Before I did so, I wanted to get people's opinion on which product would be the best investment.

I am assuming that the most desirable thing from this series is the Connor McDavid young guns card. Broken down by products, this is the price I understand someone pays in order to get a young gun card:

Series 1 Hobby Box - $94.95 - $15.825 per young gun
Series 1 Tin - $34.00 - $11.33 per yound gun (eBay)
Series 1 Retail Box - $58.95 - $9.825 per young gun
Series 1 Blaster Box - $18.95 - $9.45 per young gun

While the UD Exclusive and Acetate version of his rookie card fetches a premium relative to his regular issue, I am also taking into account the large production run for this series, which in my opinion, lowers the probability of getting either a Connor McDavid UD exclusive or acetate card (from hobby).

I also question how much people care about the hobby-exclusive cards (A Piece Of History, 300 Win Club, 1,000 Point Club Jerseys, Game Patches, Signature Sensations, UD Canvas Signatures) to justify the much higher price of hobby boxes (again taking into account production runs). If you disagree, please respond.

So, if you were planning (or already have) bought a case of any of these products in the hopes that they will increase in value (assuming McDavid wins a couple Cups and dominates for the next decade), please let me know what product you recommend.

If you think buying a case for this purpose is a bad idea, please chime as well.

If I am missing an important difference in these products, please let me know!

Looking forward to my first k13 beatdown (not necessarily in this post).

Ron
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Old 01-10-2017, 11:30 AM   #2 (permalink)
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MCDavid acetate young guns and rookie breakouts are in Series 2 not 1
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Old 01-10-2017, 11:50 AM   #3 (permalink)
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My personal opinion is that cases of Series 1/2 became obsolete as an investment when e-pack was introduced. You can have some early benefit to ripping these products, but once it's on e-pack you are ripping for enjoyment only as much of the value plummets. Having so many copies of cards readily available now is awesome for the set builder guys, but kills the overall value market on Young Guns especially.
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Old 01-10-2017, 11:51 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Okay. Do you have an opinion about any of my questions above?
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Old 01-10-2017, 11:53 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Okay. Do you have an opinion about any of my questions above?
For my own personal purposes (completing sets with inserts) I would be buying a case of retail boxes.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:07 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Good point PensFan. In my mind I was hoping that these Series 1 boxes would fetch $250-300 like 2005-06 Series 1 boxes do, but I may be waiting a long time before that happens. Could probably make more money in the stock market.

For what it is worth, I already have 4 McDavid Young Guns and 1 McDavid UD Exclusive.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:25 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Interesting for sure. When the craze first broke, I bought one case hoping to hit 2 McDavids(there is obviously a chance) but only got one. I proceeded to bust many retail blasters (probably at least a dozen or more from my local Target/WalMarts) and did not get a single one, but found myself getting 4 and 5 of the same player. In your situation, does anyone know about the collation of the retail boxes, blasters and tins? Obviously you get your one, possibly 2 Connors in a hobby case, but are there any guarantees with cases of retail & tins? I totally agree with your point about hobby exclusives - who cares when they hit a Andrew Ladd auto and especially with the product so watered down, exclusives are just that harder to hit.
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Old 01-10-2017, 01:20 PM   #8 (permalink)
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I just assumed Upper Deck's collation issues were a thing of the past...

Off thread, but I bought a high series box of 1989 Upper Deck Baseball and tested it out. There was definitely some sort of collation pattern that went on with the Star Rookies, at least for some of the pack compartments.

Just assumed that they had figured this part out and fixed it...
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Old 01-10-2017, 01:51 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I just assumed Upper Deck's collation issues were a thing of the past...

Off thread, but I bought a high series box of 1989 Upper Deck Baseball and tested it out. There was definitely some sort of collation pattern that went on with the Star Rookies, at least for some of the pack compartments.

Just assumed that they had figured this part out and fixed it...
1989 UD baseball is a much different animal - I was referring to the Young Guns - we know how many you get in each depending on hobby, retail, tin & blaster. In hobby, we know there is uually perfect collation - you will get a set of YGs(50) plus 22 duplicates. If you open a case of blasters, tins or retail, I have no idea, could you could get 3 or 4 Connors in a case or none? Is that a chance you want to take?
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Old 01-10-2017, 02:21 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by PensFan29 View Post
For my own personal purposes (completing sets with inserts) I would be buying a case of retail boxes.
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Originally Posted by I pull scrubs View Post
1989 UD baseball is a much different animal - I was referring to the Young Guns - we know how many you get in each depending on hobby, retail, tin & blaster. In hobby, we know there is uually perfect collation - you will get a set of YGs(50) plus 22 duplicates. If you open a case of blasters, tins or retail, I have no idea, could you could get 3 or 4 Connors in a case or none? Is that a chance you want to take?
Damn, that is something I never considered. I guess that is part of the reason why there is such a big price difference between hobby and everything else? Hobby has always been known to have better collation vs the other product offerings?
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Old 01-10-2017, 02:53 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by I pull scrubs View Post
Interesting for sure. When the craze first broke, I bought one case hoping to hit 2 McDavids(there is obviously a chance) but only got one. I proceeded to bust many retail blasters (probably at least a dozen or more from my local Target/WalMarts) and did not get a single one, but found myself getting 4 and 5 of the same player. In your situation, does anyone know about the collation of the retail boxes, blasters and tins? Obviously you get your one, possibly 2 Connors in a hobby case, but are there any guarantees with cases of retail & tins? I totally agree with your point about hobby exclusives - who cares when they hit a Andrew Ladd auto and especially with the product so watered down, exclusives are just that harder to hit.
Did you buy a case of Hobby or something else? Just curious.
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Old 01-10-2017, 03:37 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Good point PensFan. In my mind I was hoping that these Series 1 boxes would fetch $250-300 like 2005-06 Series 1 boxes do, but I may be waiting a long time before that happens. Could probably make more money in the stock market.

For what it is worth, I already have 4 McDavid Young Guns and 1 McDavid UD Exclusive.
Those days are long gone. Wax is not going up in price.
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Old 01-10-2017, 04:00 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Those days are long gone. Wax is not going up in price.
I think I have 6-7 Series 1 Hobby boxes and 4-5 Series 2 Hobby boxes sitting in my closet at home. Maybe I should throw them up on eBay.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:05 PM   #14 (permalink)
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If you want to put away some 15-16 cases
I'd buy 2015-16 OPC platinum at current prices if looking for a potential solid return on your investment.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:39 PM   #15 (permalink)
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UD1 is NOT the case to buy or put away. I bought two cases to put away and the introduction of ePack wrecked that entirely. If you look at COMC.com or eBay, the Young Guns are selling for pennies on the dollar compared to pre-introduction of ePack.

Here's a link to an auction for 290 Young Guns that sold for $200...

2015-16 Huge Upper Deck Young Guns Lot 290 Young Guns, 19 Canvas YG, 85+ walmart | eBay

THIS is what you can expect from a case of 2015 Upper Deck 1. Filler. I pulled 5 McDavid Young Guns from random boxes and ONE of them was from the two cases I was holding that I broke. I own none of them...sold them all.

You want to spend $1,000 on an investment? Take that money and put it towards a 2015 Premier McDavid RC /199. This one has my vote as the card AFTER McDavid's mostly unaffordable Cup RC /99 that people will chase and that will appreciate the most.

If you want a case of something to put away, buy anything that ISN'T part of the ePack program.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:16 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by CoolG View Post
If you want to put away some 15-16 cases
I'd buy 2015-16 OPC platinum at current prices if looking for a potential solid return on your investment.

Why do you say that? (sorry if that is a dumb question)
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:19 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Triple B View Post
UD1 is NOT the case to buy or put away. I bought two cases to put away and the introduction of ePack wrecked that entirely. If you look at COMC.com or eBay, the Young Guns are selling for pennies on the dollar compared to pre-introduction of ePack.

Here's a link to an auction for 290 Young Guns that sold for $200...

2015-16 Huge Upper Deck Young Guns Lot 290 Young Guns, 19 Canvas YG, 85+ walmart | eBay

THIS is what you can expect from a case of 2015 Upper Deck 1. Filler. I pulled 5 McDavid Young Guns from random boxes and ONE of them was from the two cases I was holding that I broke. I own none of them...sold them all.

You want to spend $1,000 on an investment? Take that money and put it towards a 2015 Premier McDavid RC /199. This one has my vote as the card AFTER McDavid's mostly unaffordable Cup RC /99 that people will chase and that will appreciate the most.

If you want a case of something to put away, buy anything that ISN'T part of the ePack program.
Yeah the fact that there are 50 young guns in series 1 alone kind of pisses me off.

Thank you for your inciteful post, Triple B! Very educational and informative for me!
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:25 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Triple B View Post
UD1 is NOT the case to buy or put away. I bought two cases to put away and the introduction of ePack wrecked that entirely. If you look at COMC.com or eBay, the Young Guns are selling for pennies on the dollar compared to pre-introduction of ePack.

Here's a link to an auction for 290 Young Guns that sold for $200...

2015-16 Huge Upper Deck Young Guns Lot 290 Young Guns, 19 Canvas YG, 85+ walmart | eBay

THIS is what you can expect from a case of 2015 Upper Deck 1. Filler. I pulled 5 McDavid Young Guns from random boxes and ONE of them was from the two cases I was holding that I broke. I own none of them...sold them all.

You want to spend $1,000 on an investment? Take that money and put it towards a 2015 Premier McDavid RC /199. This one has my vote as the card AFTER McDavid's mostly unaffordable Cup RC /99 that people will chase and that will appreciate the most.

If you want a case of something to put away, buy anything that ISN'T part of the ePack program.
Also I assume this is the card you are talking about as a better alternative investment:

2015-16 UD PREMIER CONNOR MCDAVID AUTO PATCH ACETATE 060/199 BGS AUTHENTIC | eBay
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:26 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Why do you say that? (sorry if that is a dumb question)
Price
You can pick up Platinum cases at better prices and you have more Mcdavid cards avail in this set. Add in the fact the cards look 10x better and less production than UD 1 by far.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:00 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Not sure I understand the love for OPC platinum over upper deck s1. Looking at sold prices the OPC platinum McDavids are selling at $5 and up ungraded. A variation out of 25 sold for $275 recently. A McDavid young gun is selling $200 ungraded and $250+ bgs 9.5 (and for the record I pulled 3 and all 3 graded 9.5). If you are lucky enough to pull the auto or an exclusive or high gloss you hit the jackpot.... Also not likely to happen. The McDavid ud1 portrait outsells the OPC platinum base rookie even. Platinum may have more mcdavid autos but hardly something to make me think it's a better investment.

Not that I think ever buying a box or case to stash is a great investment but I think you are better off with UD1 hobby then retail or OPC Platinum. Personally I have four UD1 and two UD2 stashed so my newborn son can someday crack them when he's older and have some excitement. But I would expect these boxes to be $200-300 each 10-15 years from now but I wouldn't wager the house on it
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:18 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by CoolG View Post
Price
You can pick up Platinum cases at better prices and you have more Mcdavid cards avail in this set. Add in the fact the cards look 10x better and less production than UD 1 by far.
But demand is also 10x less
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:24 PM   #22 (permalink)
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UD 1 cases are over priced and you can get 2 boxes of platinum for the price of one UD box.
Platinum cases are a little over cost currently a great deal for this product.
Less risk and a better reward
I'm talking about holding cases not selling singles of either product.
OPC platinum is under the radar at $940 case 16 box case
If an investor has a 5 year hold period I think you'll end up making a better return with Platinum. IMO
Opening a box of platinum is so much better than UD1 and over the coming years people will realize this and how OVER produced UD 1 was.

Last edited by CoolG; 01-10-2017 at 07:43 PM.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:35 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Fwiw, I did a case of blasters that I hit for $300. I hit two mcdavids in back to back blasters. In the case, I hit doubles of every YG that I hit but I did not come remotely close to completing a full YG set.
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Old 01-10-2017, 08:05 PM   #24 (permalink)
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I would spend the money you'd invest in a case and just by the young guns singles while they are cheap. McDavid isn't the only player in the set there are a lot of other future all stars. Right now you can get a Robby Fabbri young gun for less than $3 and I only see his card going up in price over the years. Look at Kucherov, Gaudreau, Galchenyuk, Horvat etc. All their cards have gone over $20 now.
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Old 01-10-2017, 08:42 PM   #25 (permalink)
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I would spend the money you'd invest in a case and just by the young guns singles while they are cheap. McDavid isn't the only player in the set there are a lot of other future all stars. Right now you can get a Robby Fabbri young gun for less than $3 and I only see his card going up in price over the years. Look at Kucherov, Gaudreau, Galchenyuk, Horvat etc. All their cards have gone over $20 now.
All those guys except Kucherov sold for way higher than $20 when they came out. Galchenyuk sold for $40 plus horvat/Kucherov are in series 2 which were short printed at the time and they play on popular canadian teams.

There is no hope for Fabbri...especially in a super over printed year.

btw, you can still get horvat for $10, Kucherov for $12, Galchenyuk for $15

I'd rather have my horvat fwa for $18 which was a redemption...

If you like Fabbri..get his fwa for as low as $7...
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