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Old 10-10-2009, 06:00 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Cheap! 2003 UD Prospect Premieres Group Break, $7-8 per slot

So first let me start out by saying that this would be my first attempt at a Group Break, and that I do not have a webcam to do a live stream of the break. I do however have both a digital camera and a scanner, which I would use to update the break in between each box or every 2 boxes so that all can keep up with what is being hit. As per Blowouts terms, any interested participants would have to be OK with this in order to proceed.

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So with that out of the way, onto the proposed break...

2003 UD Prospect Premiers is loaded with a lot of current young stars first XRC cards, including Autographs and Jersey. But even the base card checklist is outstanding in my opinion...

Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Andre Either, Carlos Quentin, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Ian Stewart, Brandon Wood, Delmon Young, Lastings Milledge, Jake Fox, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Daric Barton, Scott Baker, John Danks, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and probably a dozen or more other players currently in the majors.

So here would be the proposed slot breakdown...

- 90 Base card set, 65 Autographs in the set (71 minus 6 that were never made), 42 Jerseys in the set

- 16 boxes, 18 packs/box, 4 cards per pack = 1152 cards

- 2 Autographs per box = 32 Autograph Hits

- 1 Jersey per box = 16 Jersey Hits

- Base cards (1152 - 48 hits) = 1104 cards

- Projected # of cards for each of the 90 base cards: 12 cards (1104/90 = 12.27)

To keep costs down (and I think make this really fun) I propose 48 slots for the hits + 90 slots (draft style by player) for the base cards for a total of 138 slots.

All slots would be randomized, with #1-48 going to the "Hits"...
#1 - 1st Auto Box 1
#2 - 2nd Auto Box 1
#3 - Jersey Box 1
#4 - 1st Auto box 2
...etc

Then the randomized slots #49 - 138 would become Draft Spots #1-90 for the player draft of the base cards.

#49 - 1st pick of Players for base cards
#50 - 2nd pick of Players for base cards
#51 - 3rd pick of Players for base cards
... etc

If the collation holds true (12 card base lot per player) there would be (9) players whose base lots would have a Book Value of $45 or more!!! There would be an additional (14) players whose base lots would have a book value of $24 - $36. And that doesn't even include Aaron Hill whose base card only books at $1.50 right now, but is sure to at least double soon with the season he's coming off of.



So the price / fee / cost break down:

Case cost is a special on blowout right now, $749.95 (reduced from a regular price of $989.99!!). At that price, I'm guessing there would be no additional discount, but if there is I would make any necessary adjustment.

Case Cost: $749.95 / 138 slots = $5.44 cost / slot
Paypal Fees: Projected $7-8 slot cost = $0.50 - $0.53 / slot

$5.44 + $0.53 = $5.97

SLOT COST (and Shipping/Supply Fees Calculated):

$8.00 for 1 slot = $2.03 for S/S ($8.00 - $5.97)
$7.50 each for 2-5 slots = $1.53/slot for S/S ($7.50 - $5.97)
$7.00 each for 6 or more slots = $1.03/slot for S/S ($7.00 - $5.97)

NEW SLOT PRICES AFTER GB CASE DISCOUNT...

$7.50 for 1 slot
$7.00 each for 2-5 slots
$6.50 each for 6+ slots



Other notes...

- Some of the base card slots could produce some nice returns too (a 12 card Adam Jones lot would probably bring $40-$60 sell value) but the key to the product is the autographs. At 65 Autographs in the set and 32 Autographs in the case, that means that there is about a 50% chance this break would produce any given Autograph.

- Some of the Possible Highlights of this product...

Adam Jones Auto $150 BV
Andre Ethier Auto $60 BV
Chad Billingsley Auto $40 BV
Ian Stewart Auto $80 BV
Carlos Quentin Auto $60 BV
Lastings Milledge Auto $60 BV
Jake Fox Auto $50 BV
Aaron Hill Auto $30 BV
Conor Jackson Auto $25 BV
John Danks Auto $30 BV
Scott Baker Auto $25 BV
Adam Miller Auto $80 BV
Tony Gwynn Jr Auto $30 BV
Brian Anderson Auto $30 BV
Daric Barton Auto $30 BV
Tony Gwynn Jr Auto $25 BV
Nick Markakis Jersey $40 BV
Adam Jones Jersey $30 BV
Jarrod Saltalamacchia Auto $20 BV (Seems WAY low, his base card books the same as Ian Stewart!!)

HERE IS THE COMPLETE 90 CARD BASE CHECKLIST THAT WOULD BE DRAFTED BY PLAYER...

(Bold = Listed in beckett, Underlined = A few more I think are noteworthy, Emoticons = My personal top 15 picks)

1 Bryan Opdyke XRC
2 Gabriel Sosa XRC
3 Tila Reynolds XRC
4 Aaron Hill XRC
5 Aaron Marsden XRC
6 Abe Alvarez XRC
7 Adam Jones XRC
8 Adam Miller XRC
9 Andre Ethier XRC
10 Anthony (Tony Jr) Gwynn XRC

11 Brad Snyder XRC
12 Brad Sullivan XRC
13 Brian Anderson XRC
14 Brian Buscher XRC
15 Brian Snyder XRC
16 Carlos Quentin XRC
17 Chad Billingsley XRC

18 Fraser Dizard XRC
19 Chris Durbin XRC
20 Chris Ray XRC
21 Conor Jackson XRC
22 Kory Casto XRC
23 Craig Whitaker XRC
24 Dan Moore XRC
25 Daric Barton XRC
26 Darin Downs XRC
27 David Murphy XRC
28 Dustin Majewski XRC
29 Edgardo Baez XRC
30 Jake Fox XRC
31 Jake Stevens XRC
32 Jamie D'Antona XRC
33 James Houser XRC
34 Jarrod Saltalamacchia XRC
35 Jason Hirsh XRC
36 Javi Herrera XRC
37 Jeff Allison XRC
38 John Hudgins XRC
39 Jo-Jo Reyes XRC
40 Justin James XRC
41 Kurt Isenberg XRC
42 Kyle Boyer XRC
43 Lastings Milledge XRC
44 Luis Atilano XRC
45 Matt Murton XRC
46 Matt Moses XRC
47 Matt Harrison XRC
48 Michael Bourn XRC
49 Miguel Vega XRC
50 Mitch Maier XRC
51 Omar Quintanilla XRC
52 Ryan Sweeney XRC
53 Scott Baker XRC
54 Sean Rodriguez XRC
55 Steve Lerud XRC
56 Thomas Pauly XRC
57 Tom Gorzelanny XRC
58 Tim Moss XRC
59 Robbie Wooley XRC
60 Trey Webb XRC
61 Wes Littleton XRC
62 Beau Vaughan XRC
63 Willy Jo Ronda XRC
64 Chris Lubanski XRC
65 Ian Stewart XRC
66 John Danks XRC

67 Kyle Sleeth XRC
68 Michael Aubrey XRC
69 Kevin Kouzmanoff XRC
70 Ryan Harvey XRC

71 Tim Stauffer XRC
72 Tony Richie XRC
73 Brandon Wood XRC
74 David Aardsma XRC
75 David Shinskie XRC
76 Dennis Dove XRC
77 Eric Sultemeier XRC
78 Jay Sborz XRC
79 Jimmy Barthmaier XRC
80 Josh Whitesell XRC
81 Josh Anderson XRC
82 Kenny Lewis XRC
83 Mateo Miramontes XRC
84 Nick Markakis XRC
85 Paul Bacot XRC
86 Peter Stonard XRC
87 Reggie Willits XRC
88 Shane Costa XRC
89 Billy Sadler XRC
90 Delmon Young XRC

Let me know if there are any questions or anything else you'd like to know.

Thanks! Mike.


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Last edited by ohiomike; 10-12-2009 at 05:23 PM.
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Old 10-10-2009, 07:49 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Interesting idea Mike...good luck!
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Old 10-10-2009, 07:59 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Put me down for 1 spot mike! Thanks man!
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Old 10-10-2009, 08:03 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I'll take 2, please.. thanks
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Old 10-10-2009, 08:39 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Thanks guys. With so many slots to fill, there is a chance this won't get legs... but I'm encouraged by the start. There should be some excellent hits for $7-8 a pop though if it does.
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Old 10-10-2009, 08:42 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohiomike View Post
Thanks guys. With so many slots to fill, there is a chance this won't get legs... but I'm encouraged by the start. There should be some excellent hits for $7-8 a pop though if it does.
Trust me, player breaks do very well, because if you get people interested, they will take many slots since the price point is low. This set is very nice and very well done by UD so I don't think filling should be a problem.
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Old 10-10-2009, 08:49 PM   #7 (permalink)
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go ahead and put me down for 6 more (total of 8) my sons want in and I'll be the nice dad
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Old 10-10-2009, 08:52 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
go ahead and put me down for 6 more (total of 8) my sons want in and I'll be the nice dad
Will do. I see you're from Baltimore... if you hit on any of the Adam Jones or Nick Markakis cards, you should be set
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Old 10-10-2009, 08:54 PM   #9 (permalink)
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that is the hope .. any Ichiros in this set?
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Old 10-10-2009, 09:01 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
that is the hope .. any Ichiros in this set?
No, in fact there are no veterans in the set at all. Every card in case will be either a XRC base card, a XRC Autograph, or a XRC Jersey. I will try to get the full list of 90 players in the base card set and post it soon. I'll paste it at the end of the original post... and probably set a record for longest post ever by doing so
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Old 10-10-2009, 09:02 PM   #11 (permalink)
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that's right .. it is a premiere set ... can't wait! thanks again
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Old 10-10-2009, 09:09 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
that's right .. it is a premiere set ... can't wait! thanks again
Yeah, they tried to stick some Veteran insets into the 2001 version of the set (probably to try to make it a RC eligible set) but they did it right in 2003, all prospects and lots of Autos. I really wish they had continued this product... it was really a landmark product for including players first cards well before their true RC years. Just look at Adam Jones, these cards pre-date is RC by 3 years and are by far his most desirable cards.
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Old 10-10-2009, 11:20 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Updated OP with complete base card checklist #1-90.
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Old 10-10-2009, 11:22 PM   #14 (permalink)
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I'll take a shot at this..give me 6 slots.
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Old 10-11-2009, 01:33 AM   #15 (permalink)
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I'll take 4 slots. Thanks.
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Old 10-11-2009, 05:49 AM   #16 (permalink)
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I will take 5 slots.
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Old 10-11-2009, 10:40 AM   #17 (permalink)
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I'll try 2.
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Old 10-11-2009, 04:11 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Hey guys, good news! I just got a confirmation from Chris @ Blowout that he can give us a discount on the case for a group break!!! Thats really generous given how much this case was already discounted off regular price!!!

So the discount was $49.95 off the case price, and so that divided by 138 slots = roughly a $0.36 per slot savings. I'm going to go ahead and bump that up to $0.50 per slot and take the difference out of the Shipping/Supplies cost (hopefully that won't bite me in the butt later on... I don't think it will).

So the new slot cost for this group break...

1 slot = $7.50
2-5 slots = $7.00 each
6+ slots = $6.50 each


If anyone already on the list wants to adjust the number of slots they'd like, just let me know. And with only about 20% of the slots filled so far, I'm still looking for more interest from other members too. Should be a fun break with some really nice hits, and now its even cheaper to get in!!
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Old 10-12-2009, 05:04 PM   #19 (permalink)
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One more bump and then we'll see where this is at by the weekend. If it still isn't close to filling by then, I guess we'll just scratch the idea. I wish I were allowed to participate But perhaps the age of the product is scaring people away despite the the great hits this product could produce.
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Old 10-12-2009, 05:13 PM   #20 (permalink)
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You can put me down for 10 slots.

How are the 90 draft slots going to be randomized between 48 hit slots?
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Old 10-12-2009, 05:20 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vintage Collector View Post
You can put me down for 10 slots.

How are the 90 draft slots going to be randomized between 48 hit slots?
Thanks.

Assuming this does fill, there will be 138 randomized slots.

#1-48 will go to the "hits"
(Slot 1 = Auto 1 box 1 / Slot 2 = Auto 2 box 1 / Slot 3 = Jersey box 1 / Slot 4 = Auto 1 box 2 / etc).

#49 - 138 will be picks #1-90 in the base draft
(Slot 49 = #1 pick in base draft, Slot 50 = #2 pick in base draft, etc)
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Old 10-16-2009, 03:59 PM   #22 (permalink)
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I think its safe to say there isn't enough interest for this group break to go forward.

Thanks anyway to all who committed to slots.

This thread can now be locked or deleted by a Mod. Thanks.
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