SportsCardNation.com Weekly Update (8/8/2008

[iluvfish2]

SPORTSCARDNATION,

Heres whats going on in the Market this week:

We have 4 releases this week but the only one that matters for our Sportscardnation is 2008 Donruss Threads Football. This is a product with a track record along with a product with content. Our recommendation is to follow it closely. The week of release is almost always the weakest time as products change hands. Like buying stocks, you want to buy on the dips. If this product takes a dip, we at SCN believe that you will see some nice price appreciation going into the 2008 FB season. The past few years have yielded $90-$100 box prices on Donruss Threads FB after it drys up. This year should be the same with similar if not better content.

As for the rest of the market: 2008 Bowman Baseball is on fire. For some reason, it just shot up like crazy this week. We had mentioned in the past that we saw this coming but not to this magnitude. Jumbos took the jump about 3 weeks ago from $80-$105. Now the hobby went from $55-$65 and may be heading to $75 a box. Another big mover this week was 2008 Topps Chrome football. Its all about the NFL the next 6 months and the preseason has everyone hyped up. 2008 Topps Chrome FB was a easy prediction when it was around the $650 mark. Most of our members could have picked that one but kudos to those who actually threw their money into the presells and made money. We at SCN think the train does not stop at $700-$750. When the season starts, this will be a $900 case.

The money play this week is 2007/08 UD Exquisite Basketball. We feel very strongly that those who get in now in the $1425-$1475 range will be rewarded when this product drys up. Excellent overall content and alot of great pulls plus a fresh Basketball season coming up. Exquisite Basketball has never been a better value in this price range and there are enough high end repeat buyers to dive this case back up to $1600-$1700+ in the next 3 months. When distributors and wholesalers are out, watch it move quickly.

2007/08 The Cup HK, 2008 Topps A & G BB, 2008 Topps Triple Threads BB are all moving well and all 3 break well. You are in the cycle now where prices move down right after release. The weak hands and dealers who need money flip out and the smart money holds on to reap the profits down the line. Its hard to hold product when you see prices falling but the key is to keep a focus on the content. Products with true content will almost always come back 90% of the time. Some products take 1 month and some products take 6 months to dry up but products that are loaded will come back strong when they dry up. Thats the focus of today. We at SCN want to list for you the products that we know 100% are loaded breaks based on what we have seen and also from the feedback from members. These are the products that will move higher. There will always be skeptics out there that may bash us at the moment but put this email aside and revisit it 3 months from now and like a reportcard, see where we stand. We are confident that our predictions based on value, price, content and production will be profitable for many of you who invest rather than collect.

The following are products that compared to todays current market prices will move higher in 2-3 months.

2008 Press Pass SE FB
2008 UD Draft Edition FB
2008 Topps Chrome FB
2008 Donruss Threads FB
2008 Playoff Prestige FB
2008 Topps JUMBO FB
2008 UD Heroes FB
2007 UD SP Authentic FB
2008 Topps Allen Ginter BB
2008 Topps Triple Threads BB
2008 UD Piece of History BB
2008 Bowman Chrome BB
2008 Topps Chrome BB
2008 Bowman BB
2007/08 UD the Cup HK
2007/08 OPC Premier HK
2008/09 UD Series 1 HK
2008/09 UD Artifacts HK
2007/08 UD Exquisite Basketball
2007/08 UD Premier Basketball
2007/08 UD Ultimate Collection Basketball
2008 Razor Signature Cuts
2008 Razor Oval Office

We have updated the website at WWW.SPORTCARDNATION.COM with a ton of new Product and Manufacturer updates this week.

This week at SCN, we have reviewed the following products. Many of these products have just come live TODAY! Our goal is to give you the most up to date website for market conditions and information in the HOBBY!

2008/09 UD Victory Hockey
2008 UD Hobby Football
2008 Topps Stadium Club Football
2008 DONRUSS THREADS FOOTBALL

Looking into NEXT WEEK, the following products are Tentatively Scheduled to be Reviewed:

2008 UPPER DECK BASEBALL HEROES
2008 BOWMAN CHROME BASEBALL
2007/08 UPPER DECK CHRONOLOGY BASKETBALL
2008 Press Pass ELVIS "BY THE NUMBERS"
2008 SCORE FOOTBALL WAX, JUMBO, RACKS
2008 UD NFL PLAYERS ROOKIE PREMIERE BOX SET
2008 UD SPX Football

[jacobbigshow]

"2007/08 The Cup HK, 2008 Topps A & G BB, 2008 Topps Triple Threads BB are all moving well and all 3 break well. You are in the cycle now where prices move down right after release. The weak hands and dealers who need money flip out and the smart money holds on to reap the profits down the line. Its hard to hold product when you see prices falling but the key is to keep a focus on the content."

Don't give up on TTT, I will probably order another case for a group break when these cases start to dry up in a couple months especially when Sterling comes out.

[CaptainBOHICA]

Anyone know how sportscardnation goes about reviewing the products?

do they do buy product with their own money, break a box or case then review?

or do they base a review off of what is coming out of OTHER PEOPLES boxes/cases? and even IF they do that, how can you completely judge a case when a lot of people just list HITS.... and dont talk about collation, factory damage, insert ratios, #'s of base sets/insert sets, etc etc etc.


i just have a problem with statements like this:

"2008 Topps Triple Threads BB are all moving well and all 3 break well."

when its painfully obvious that isn't the case. after seeing a lot of breaks on this board and other boards and reading thoughtful discussions on the product... that statement and reality doesn't match.

so if anyone has a real answer for me i'll give you a nickel.

[Tim]

wow this is the most amusing report yet. Triple Threads is a good break? LOL

[mightbe]

I think my two cases of Triple Threads went well and I had been regretting preordering as it was getting closer. I'm fascinated by how much Dale Murphy stuff is going for.

I don't know if any of you saw that Sterling preview spread in one of the price guides (hey, they were free at the National, lol) but it is going to be insane. Still though, especially after doing so much of the Cup...sticker autos MUST go...even if they need to do redemptions...they just kill the look of the cards.

[frozenntimesports]

Gotta wonder about 08-09 UD Series 1 hockey. Are they assuming Stamkos will be in it? This is a real weak rookie class, if Series 1 is loaded up, Series 2 is going to stink as badly as 03-04 Series 2.

[mightbe]

Well, doesn't that list have just about EVERY product released recently or to be released soon?

[jebjeb1]

Who writes this report?

I had a solid 2 case break of TTT and will take a $1,500 loss. Not sure how anyone busting this product can even hope to break even.

[tarzanlovesjane]

Originally Posted by mightbe

I think my two cases of Triple Threads went well and I had been regretting preordering as it was getting closer. I'm fascinated by how much Dale Murphy stuff is going for.

I don't know if any of you saw that Sterling preview spread in one of the price guides (hey, they were free at the National, lol) but it is going to be insane. Still though, especially after doing so much of the Cup...sticker autos MUST go...even if they need to do redemptions...they just kill the look of the cards.

What did you pay for the cases and how much have you collected back on your investment. Value has to be based on hard numbers, not "thinking" you hit some nice stuff. I have yet to see anyone profit from a TTT break.

[jacobbigshow]

Originally Posted by tarzanlovesjane

What did you pay for the cases and how much have you collected back on your investment. Value has to be based on hard numbers, not "thinking" you hit some nice stuff. I have yet to see anyone profit from a TTT break.

I think the case break we hosted was pretty good and we might have profited. Of course we did hit 2 1/1s and got a Ruth and 2 big Mantles and a whole lot of low number fold outs so we were very lucky.

[CaptainBOHICA]

Originally Posted by jacobbigshow

I think the case break we hosted was pretty good and we might have profited. Of course we did hit 2 1/1s and got a Ruth and 2 big Mantles and a whole lot of low number fold outs so we were very lucky.

you're missing the point. does your ONE CASE reflect the overall case breaks for the entire print run?

No it doesn't. so just because YOUR case was good or a handful of other other case breaks on here were good doesn't mean the product "breaks well".

thats misrepresentation.

thats pulling a freakin newdoug for christ sakes. give me a f'kin break

[pskell02]

Originally Posted by CaptainBOHICA

you're missing the point. does your ONE CASE reflect the overall case breaks for the entire print run?

No it doesn't. so just because YOUR case was good or a handful of other other case breaks on here were good doesn't mean the product "breaks well".

thats misrepresentation.

thats pulling a freakin newdoug for christ sakes. give me a f'kin break

Bohica read his post again. At the very end he says "So we were very lucky."

I agree that the value is just not there in the product, but no need to go off on jbs about what he posted.

[CaptainBOHICA]

doesn't change a thing. they were lucky - yes. so were a few people. but my main gripe remains -a site like scn cannot and should not make comments like "TTT will be a good break" when we all know its not.

[jacobbigshow]

Originally Posted by pskell02

Bohica read his post again. At the very end he says "So we were very lucky."

I agree that the value is just not there in the product, but no need to go off on jbs about what he posted.

Yea and also the guy before said he doesn't know anybody who made ahead of the case, well people who get good 1/1 cards that pay for the case do. You have to remember, that for high end products if you do not get 1 huge card, your case will get you back 50% if you are lucky. Look at UD products, they stink. I still agree with this post, this product will go down to $2600 at blowoutcards (which has a sell for under $2700 this week as they are panicking) and once everything dried up and there are lots of those good 1/1s missing the case will go up to 3K. 2007 Topps Sterling price dropped like crazy cause all of the hot 1/1s and bat barells were gone in a few months, unless in the first couple of months all of the hots cards are pulled, then once the big guys start running out of these cards, and fleabay stops getting polluted with a lot of TTT auctions, it will go back up.
Remember this is a hobby, name 1 product where when you bust the case it yeilds a profit? None of them do, a good case is something that gives you over 50% of your money back and on a good break you get your money back and on a sweet pull you make up for a couple of cases.

[pskell02]

Originally Posted by CaptainBOHICA

doesn't change a thing. they were lucky - yes. so were a few people. but my main gripe remains -a site like scn cannot and should not make comments like "TTT will be a good break" when we all know its not.

And I agree with that, every single word. But JBS was not trying to make a representative statement about the product. He was simply stating that they got a good case and got lucky. See what I'm saying?

[CaptainBOHICA]

i stand corrected (i read things a lot differently)...but im still going to bitch and moan about these reports when the complete picture is not painted for everyone.

[pskell02]

Originally Posted by CaptainBOHICA

i stand corrected (i read things a lot differently)...but im still going to bitch and moan about these reports when the complete picture is not painted for everyone.

Agreed. I think I have seen one of these that were actually useful and that one wasn't even worth reading the whole thing.

[otmack2o]

Originally Posted by jacobbigshow

Remember this is a hobby, name 1 product where when you bust the case it yeilds a profit? None of them do, a good case is something that gives you over 50% of your money back and on a good break you get your money back and on a sweet pull you make up for a couple of cases.

Nearly all set building products can yield a profit by busting a few cases. There are tons of products out there that will get you more than 50% back every time. I think the Topps Sterling is starting to get to your head...

[jacobbigshow]

Originally Posted by otmack2o

Nearly all set building products can yield a profit by busting a few cases. There are tons of products out there that will get you more than 50% back every time. I think the Topps Sterling is starting to get to your head...

its all I think about and like you said about set building products, this is a high end product, so you have to throw out all set building products and stick to high end products, now what yeilds atleast 50% back on high end products?

[otmack2o]

Ahh, the stipulations have changed... OK, how about Bowman Sterling? Is that high end to you?

[frozenntimesports]

Originally Posted by otmack2o

Ahh, the stipulations have changed... OK, how about Bowman Sterling? Is that high end to you?

If $60 a pack MSRP isn't high end, then this hobby is going nuts. Of course it is high end, but that is one where over the course of time you have a decent chance to make your money back.

As for products that you can be guaranteed to make money on, there are none, but if you take an educated guess you can do pretty well. I've only lost on two products in the past three years, 2007 Topps Chrome Baseball and 2005-06 Ultra hockey.

I totally missed Topps Chrome Baseball. I bought Ultra too high.

Its getting harder now, but look at the content of the products and you can pretty much tell if its a dog.

Example: 2008-09 Ultra. Dog. Only one autograph instead of eight in a case like last year, best inserts in retail (again!) and game used is worthless in this product. Will have SP rookies, but no one real good will be in anything but the redemption set, just like last year. I wouldn't touch this product at $400 a case, let alone what it is going for... I hope UD spices it up, I have an insider who told me they were going to, but I'll have to see it to believe it.

2008-09 OPC. Dog. One autograph a case and a real cruddy rookie lineup. No redemptions, so they may be planning a rookie update this year, but that is no reason to do this set. The parallel set could save it, but I hope they throw a few bigger names in that rookie lineup. (FYI, 2007-08's checklist went from great to terrible, so they could improve it too.)

2008 Topps Chrome Football. Winner. Has a track record of going to $900-1000 a case by November, every year. Is this year's rookie class as good as 2007? No. But it may be as good as 2006, and that should push this. Plus its a set that most collectors do every year, so that will help as well.


Don't just go by what SportsCardNation.com or KD says, its your dollar, you figure out what you want to do. I do Topps Chrome baseball every year. I lost last year, and I probably lost this year, but its the set I do every year so I don't really care.

I did Score football last year and made a mint. I skipped it this year because I don't need to do this to make money any more, but you can if you want to on this one.

There are products out there you can still break for profit. Generally you should pay less than $700 a case for it unless it has Bowman and or Chrome or O-Pee-Chee in its name. Use your brains people! You will have more money to spend on the hobby.

[jacobbigshow]

Sorry Bowman Sterling seems high end but you get too much for it to be high end. You are really spending $15 per hit comparted to $80 for TTT. And they are not saying what is the best case to break, they are saying what case has the best chance of raising in price in the future, TTT may suck, but it will still go up.

[solt0131]

I actually think you can make more money busting 2008 Topps Chrome Football than you can holding it. If you get it low enough ($650 or lower). You can sell every card in the case(s) and you can also do better by selling the box toppers unopened.

You can say the 08/09 hockey products are dog's, but the fact is people still buy the sets and insert sets, etc. That's what makes these a winner, not the auto's. Last year I had 8 autos in my Ultra cases and they all stunk. I did better with my Ice Medallion #/100 than the auto's. It also helps when a lot of my sets are already presold though.

[frozenntimesports]

Originally Posted by solt0131

You can say the 08/09 hockey products are dog's, but the fact is people still buy the sets and insert sets, etc. That's what makes these a winner, not the auto's. Last year I had 8 autos in my Ultra cases and they all stunk. I did better with my Ice Medallion #/100 than the auto's. It also helps when a lot of my sets are already presold though.

There still is a chance for them to be good. Ultra needs to go back to the autograph 1 in every 1 1/2 boxes like last year, and it sounds like they may.

OPC needs a major, major checklist overhaul, but they can't post a player to the set until they debut. I will be waiting until the season start checklist is released to pull the trigger, and I think the 1979-80 OPC parallel will be the best one yet. I'm thinking 4-5 cases if they improve the rookie checklist a little.

I'll gladly pre-sell you my Ultra sets if you want them.

[blackandgold]

2008 Topps Chrome is at 740 a case and release is 8-27-08
What does this product do go up or down before release?