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Old 07-06-2010, 05:08 PM   #51 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wilsonsingles View Post
i think you guys may be a little off in your math.

basically you only get 5 or 6 regular mini's per box including sps 301-350.
so you are only getting 60-70 regular minis per case. that makes 5 or 6 cases to make a set therefore producing a Strasburg around 1 in 5-6 cases.

i have actually seen 3-4 base minis and 2 sp minis (301-350) come out of most boxes. if this is the case, then you would be only getting 36-48 base minis per case, taking more like 7-8 cases to make a set and therefore 1 Strasburg in every 7-8 cases which seems more likely.

just my observations from my boxes and boxes from my LCS.

I would agree with this. Before the product even came out I guessed 1:3 cases based on the idea that you'd get about 10 regular non-sp minis per box. But based on what people opening it are reporting, I'd say its more like 5 base non-sp minis at best. So that would up the odds to 1:6 cases... and again, this assumes the Strasburg mini is NOT short printed.
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Old 07-06-2010, 05:30 PM   #52 (permalink)
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Well it's not hard to figure out with the pack odds. Does anyone have a scan of the pack of a pack or just the odds?
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Old 06-09-2011, 01:57 PM   #53 (permalink)
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Sorry to drum up an old thread, but I just read through it again and I'm really impressed with how accurate some of the predictions from last summer are. This thread predicted there were probably only about 100 of these made and a year later, that seems about right. Also, there was another thread related to this one that said the Strasburg mini would settle in at $150-$300. That prediction was made before he got hurt and the reality of it is around $100-200 right now, but I think once he's pitching again, that number seems right on also.
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Old 06-09-2011, 10:23 PM   #54 (permalink)
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A much smaller sample, but I opened three cases and didn't get a Strasburg mini.
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Old 06-09-2011, 10:27 PM   #55 (permalink)
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I bought 10 rack packs from Target and got one.
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Old 06-09-2011, 10:34 PM   #56 (permalink)
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I still haven't pulled one.
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Old 07-03-2011, 05:19 PM   #57 (permalink)
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Could haprer be the same this year?
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Old 07-03-2011, 05:35 PM   #58 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shinypsptitans View Post
Could haprer be the same this year?
Harper will NOT be in A&G. He is not anywhere close to being called up to the Nationals. Therefore, he is a prospect and NOT a rookie and will not be in A&G.
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Old 07-04-2011, 09:54 PM   #59 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topherkris1 View Post
Fun with numbers:
If Stras is once every 3 cases, you're odds of not pulling one in any particular case are 66%.

2 Cases? 44 chance not pulling 56 pulling.
5? 13% not, 87% pulling
10? 2% not, 98% pulling
20? .025 not, 99.9755 pulling
B&B's 25? .003% of not pulling.
Just letting you know, thats not a rough estimate. Thats no more an estimate than picking a random # out of a hat.
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