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Old 04-10-2013, 12:51 PM   #51 (permalink)
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Here's a bubble. Walking Dead sketch cards. To each their own and obviously rarity is a factor with WD sketch cards, but the prices there are NOT sustainable for the next ~3 years.

The over-saturation of sketch cards isn't going to stop as someone mentioned while companies are moving their boxes.

Like I mentioned on the first page, your safest bet if you are concerned about value is to collect artists who do very few sets or artists who do "hit and runs" (such as the numerous Upper Deck Professionals). The Anthony Tans/Charles Halls/Glebes/etc. will always hold value but it is most certain to go down with significant increases in supply. It is refreshing from an aesthetic and value standpoint seeing Rittenhouse use a revolving door of artists. I think they learned their lessons from Fantastic Four Archives and Batman Archives failures.

Last edited by BHotz; 04-10-2013 at 12:54 PM.
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Old 04-10-2013, 01:01 PM   #52 (permalink)
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eldavojohn: I think we just have different opinions here. I'm not going to be able to provide the proof you want. My opinion is based on my experiences and patterns I see.

You seem to think that "bubble" requires some aspect of fraud, which may be the textbook definition (I'm not a student of economics), but in terms of informal usage I don't see how that is a necessary component.

Supply and demand is at work here as it is with any market. Even fraudulently built bubbles collapse not from exposure of the fraud but the decline in demand. So I don't see how pointing this is involved somehow doesn't make this a bubble. Perhaps people keeping the prices up are no longer buying, the popularity of the artists has decreased, or there are just too many sketch cards available. I don't have the exact answer.

As stated earlier, I'm using bubble in the sense of a rapid decline in value. If that is the incorrect terminology, then okay it's not a bubble. Maybe you're right--this is just a normal market correction and there's nothing to see here.
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Old 04-10-2013, 01:04 PM   #53 (permalink)
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The incentive card program is the route of what may be considered false value of this or that artist. Acar was a sensation right out the box. The Glebes I believe did a set before they became incentive artists Same with Perna and Tan. Being an incentive artist creates a false belief that from that set these are the only cards from them but i don't think anyone has added up just how many cards an incentive artist has to produce. I don't know. 5 cards 10, 100, 200? Other companies then take that idea that these are the top artists hire them then tout them as their top artists. A false belief is then created, but actual counting of cards will eventually reveal they aren't that scarce in the overall. So what you then have left is is the artwork good and is the subject matter a decent theme. If I collected that would be my only criteria. When I look through cards I completely dis regard the artist, I look only at the theme and if the artist(s) stuck with the theme. If a set is about the Avengers, I only want to see avengers etc. etc.
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Old 04-10-2013, 01:14 PM   #54 (permalink)
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The incentive card program is the route of what may be considered false value of this or that artist. Acar was a sensation right out the box. The Glebes I believe did a set before they became incentive artists Same with Perna and Tan. Being an incentive artist creates a false belief that from that set these are the only cards from them but i don't think anyone has added up just how many cards an incentive artist has to produce. I don't know. 5 cards 10, 100, 200? Other companies then take that idea that these are the top artists hire them then tout them as their top artists. A false belief is then created, but actual counting of cards will eventually reveal they aren't that scarce in the overall. So what you then have left is is the artwork good and is the subject matter a decent theme. If I collected that would be my only criteria. When I look through cards I completely dis regard the artist, I look only at the theme and if the artist(s) stuck with the theme. If a set is about the Avengers, I only want to see avengers etc. etc.
This is actually a good point, however it's not the main reason the incentive program is horrible.

A lot of the big distributors, refuse to carry Rittenhouse & Breygent because of their incentive program. It drives down the price of the boxes/cases on the secondary market. The ones who will carry the product, only purchase what is order and do not keep any on the shelf.

Also, the big Rittenhouse Marvel breakers kill the value on low to mid range sketches after release - and make up the profits with the incentive cards. All this does, is devalue the content of the boxes.

/Off Soapbox
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Old 04-10-2013, 01:15 PM   #55 (permalink)
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Quote:
Acar was a sensation right out the box
Technically it took about a month for Acar and Tan to both reach $200+. There were a few dozen Anthony Tans go on eBay from X-Men Archives for under $100 for a few weeks then BAMN they were $300-$600. Acar was similar though people had the "Tan effect" on their mind so it didn't take long for $300 and eventually some reaching ~$1000.

Now Charles Hall was a sensation right out of the box but that was mostly due to Rittenhouse's significant spotlight/advertisements before Spiderman Archives hit the streets.

Food for thought. Bring on the new blood! *Old blood is good too... I'd just rather not swim in it.

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Old 04-10-2013, 01:56 PM   #56 (permalink)
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Has anyone else noticed that some highly valued artists' sketch cards (based on eBay completed sales) have really gone down in value the last couple of months?

I haven't paid a whole of attention lately since I haven't had the cash to chase the big dogs, but a quick glance today at recent sales for Charles Hall, the Glebes, and Katie Cook made me go

I've seen some of the cards from my infamous "baller lot" go shockingly low.

Is this a seasonal-type thing or are we seeing a value decline in the upper echelons?

Anyone taking advantage of the savings?
Monkey - I just did a quick one year trend on Terapeak, and this time of the year seems to have a little bit of a dip. However I'm not trending by artist.

We can try and trend differently to get some better numbers just for fun? It's just a chart - but I can post the results.
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Old 04-10-2013, 01:58 PM   #57 (permalink)
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Quote:
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Technically it took about a month for Acar and Tan to both reach $200+. There were a few dozen Anthony Tans go on eBay from X-Men Archives for under $100 for a few weeks then BAMN they were $300-$600. Acar was similar though people had the "Tan effect" on their mind so it didn't take long for $300 and eventually some reaching ~$1000.

Now Charles Hall was a sensation right out of the box but that was mostly due to Rittenhouse's significant spotlight/advertisements before Spiderman Archives hit the streets.

Food for thought. Bring on the new blood! *Old blood is good too... I'd just rather not swim in it.
Maybe on the ebay/open market but we all know these big dealers sell private before they offer what's left on the open/ebay market. I'm sure everyone knows about those huge midnight sales. Acar was huge before release just on her one Female Loki card that was used in adverts and reviews if memory serves me. People were clamoring for her cards.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:01 PM   #58 (permalink)
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Monkey - I just did a quick one year trend on Terapeak, and this time of the year seems to have a little bit of a dip. However I'm not trending by artist.

We can try and trend differently to get some better numbers just for fun? It's just a chart - but I can post the results.
Very interesting--I'd love to see your charts. Maybe it's the post-tax payment lull or something.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:04 PM   #59 (permalink)
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Give me a couple of minutes. I will run them to search "Marvel Sketch" and we will use filters - average price & Sell through.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:21 PM   #60 (permalink)
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I think we are looking at a saturated market. Lots of new stuff coming out, and maybe people have a little less to spend on extraneous items right now. Personally doesn't affect me, as I won't even look at high end items. I'm a strictly low-end buyer, and I buy what I like, not for investment. 90 percent of the sketch cards in my collection are PSCs, purchased because I liked the art, and could afford the cards. My idea of high end is purchasing 3 packs of Viceroy Cards releases.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:25 PM   #61 (permalink)
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I have the charts, but they are to large to attach and I can't access FB from this computer. I can e-mail them if anyone wants to post it.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:32 PM   #62 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zerokruel View Post
I have the charts, but they are to large to attach and I can't access FB from this computer. I can e-mail them if anyone wants to post it.
Click the cloud in the upper left and drag and drop them onto the screen ... imgur will resize them and give you a link to them.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:34 PM   #63 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by eldavojohn View Post
Click the cloud in the upper left and drag and drop them onto the screen ... imgur will resize them and give you a link to them.
Ahhh, don't think I worded it right - certain things are "blocked" from this computer. That also being one of them.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:45 PM   #64 (permalink)
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Here are the charts (click for larger version):







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Old 04-10-2013, 02:48 PM   #65 (permalink)
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If it's okay - I'm going to send you one more, it actually has some very good information in it also. A little more broken down.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:49 PM   #66 (permalink)
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If it's okay - I'm going to send you one more, it actually has some very good information in it also. A little more broken down.
Sure--go for it
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Old 04-10-2013, 03:01 PM   #67 (permalink)
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More charty goodness







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Old 04-10-2013, 03:10 PM   #68 (permalink)
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Thank you.

Those charts are all based on "Marvel Sketch".. If we were just to run with "Sketch" - the sell through numbers increase and so do the average prices.

Edit: While using the search function - Marvel makes up for roughly 30% of the sketch sales.
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Old 04-10-2013, 03:32 PM   #69 (permalink)
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It'd be more useful to track five of the top selling artists over the past three or four years and look at the monthly average sales price...

Even then:
(1) Each sketch is unique - some just look better than others
(2) Auction titles aren't standardized - The artist name/set title/character name isn't always present
(3) Some characters sell better than others - Spider-man sells for more than Squirrel Girl
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Old 04-10-2013, 03:53 PM   #70 (permalink)
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It'd be more useful to track five of the top selling artists over the past three or four years and look at the monthly average sales price...

Even then:
(1) Each sketch is unique - some just look better than others
(2) Auction titles aren't standardized - The artist name/set title/character name isn't always present
(3) Some characters sell better than others - Spider-man sells for more than Squirrel Girl

This is correct. It would be better to pull date further back.

However, if you sat down and played with the search functions - you could get some solid results for a years worth of data.

Star Wars for example, they have less market ownership when it comes to sketches (compared to Marvel). What's interesting it they have a higher sell through percentage and a higher average price per item. Now just like marvel, without sitting down and fine tuning the search results - it's very generic. However, the results do tell me that there is more demand in Star Wars right now (compared to Marvel). That still doesn't mean there isn't any saturation there - it just means there is less saturation with Star Wars.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:03 PM   #71 (permalink)
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I am perfectly happy if there really is a declining value of top artists. Then maybe I can afford to add some of those cards to my collection! I'm not really concerned with their 'later' value.... I'm not planning on selling them

Its sucks for the artists though who are only getting paid a couple of bucks per card for the sets and can't get much for their APs because pack cards are so cheap.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:28 PM   #72 (permalink)
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I am perfectly happy if there really is a declining value of top artists. Then maybe I can afford to add some of those cards to my collection! I'm not really concerned with their 'later' value.... I'm not planning on selling them

Its sucks for the artists though who are only getting paid a couple of bucks per card for the sets and can't get much for their APs because pack cards are so cheap.
No matter what the cards sell for on ebay, the artists are still making the same amount of money. It would be worth asking if AP sales have taken a dip as that's a way that companies compensate the artists.

I've been buying some sketch cards I like for about a month and have about ten. Since I don't buy boxes I do understand that there does need to be a financial incentive for someone to open up multiple cases of cards or else there wouldn't be so many singles on the market.

If I track down an artist I really like who's cards sell for a bunch of money, typically I'll shoot 'em an email to do a comic book sketch cover. The $50 that I can put into buying a trading card can get me at almost halfway to a larger sketch of one of my fav characters.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:33 PM   #73 (permalink)
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No matter what the cards sell for on ebay, the artists are still making the same amount of money. It would be worth asking if AP sales have taken a dip as that's a way that companies compensate the artists.

I've been buying some sketch cards I like for about a month and have about ten. Since I don't buy boxes I do understand that there does need to be a financial incentive for someone to open up multiple cases of cards or else there wouldn't be so many singles on the market.

If I track down an artist I really like who's cards sell for a bunch of money, typically I'll shoot 'em an email to do a comic book sketch cover. The $50 that I can put into buying a trading card can get me at almost halfway to a larger sketch of one of my fav characters.
Over on the FB Sketch Card Fanatics group, several artists were saying their AP sales have gone done recently. I know one artist who posts here occasionally who was getting pretty frustrated about his AP sales.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:38 PM   #74 (permalink)
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Over on the FB Sketch Card Fanatics group, several artists were saying their AP sales have gone done recently. I know one artist who posts here occasionally who was getting pretty frustrated about his AP sales.
I've been reading that also. I following some on FB, and I also follow Art Asylum. I think I know who your talking about - great artist.
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Old 04-10-2013, 05:04 PM   #75 (permalink)
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Over on the FB Sketch Card Fanatics group, several artists were saying their AP sales have gone done recently. I know one artist who posts here occasionally who was getting pretty frustrated about his AP sales.
I was into photography for a while, a big part of making a living off art is knowing how to sell yourself and your work. Many of the APs on ebay are listed poorly. The average consumer doesn't know what they are going to receive, thumbnails make an AP look the same size as a card, artists don't always include a provide a good overview of their portfolio, people scroll past a blank card, keywords are missing from the titles...

Artists need to remain firm on the value of their work. If you list a piece with a "buy it now" price, you only need 1 person to click the button. Keep your price reasonable and wait 'til someone gets their tax return, ebay bucks or other fun money. I'd even recommend selling via your personal website instead of ebay because you know the people that find your site are interested in your artwork and not just the series of sketch cards. Plus your sale wouldn't be mixed in with a bunch of search results for cards.
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