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Old 09-02-2012, 11:04 PM   #51 (permalink)
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Back up QB? Locker or Bradford?
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:05 PM   #52 (permalink)
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Based on what?

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Originally Posted by HighEndHits View Post
It's not that it doesn't exist it's that nobody is following it this year. I'm willing to bet that relative QB ratings are back to their historical norm.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:07 PM   #53 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by HighEndHits View Post
No you don't and here's why.

Everyone is basing reaching for a QB in the first round due to last year's stats. QB points, no matter the settings, historically (with the one exception of last year) do not have a significant drop off after the first few through about the 6th or 7th QB taken. Last year was an outlier as Peyton was injured for the whole season, Rivers had an off year, Vick was banged up, and Schaub was hurt as well. From a relative value standpoint the QB position always has at least 1-2 QBs that you can take later on and still get good performance from (i.e. Stafford or Cam last year). I have never seen a team who took a QB in the first round win their league. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but it severely handicaps your team.

The historically pt differential among QBs is not there. Look at any year other than last year and you'll see. Mean reversion, it's a *****.
You apparently missed the memo on the RB situation this season. If you aren't at least a top 4-5 pick you're sol unless you'd like to reach for RD 2 heads for your first round pick.

By your logic, you're telling me you would take Chris Johnson with the 9th pick or the next tier RB instead of a Tom Brady or Drew Brees at that point for this season? Rodgers is long, long gone...
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:07 PM   #54 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by u_want_my_cards View Post
Why would anyone take a QB in the first round?
Brady, Brees, Rodgers are the exceptions. All three are elite future HOF QB's who are in primarily pass offenses. Personally, I like Brady the best because he has a similar RB situation to GB, but better weapons IMO
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:09 PM   #55 (permalink)
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Taking Brees with the first pick doesn't kill your team but it is just stupid.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:09 PM   #56 (permalink)
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Based on what?
On the fact that you don't have half of the premiere fantasy QBs hurt or under-performing this year. And if you are drafting a QB in the 1st round based on "it's a passing league now" you will have other QBs make the jump in statistics (i.e. potentially Matt Ryan) and close the gap. 1 year does not make a trend. Look at 2010 or prior and you will see what I mean.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:09 PM   #57 (permalink)
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Why is it stupid?

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Taking Brees with the first pick doesn't kill your team but it is just stupid.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:11 PM   #58 (permalink)
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You apparently missed the memo on the RB situation this season. If you aren't at least a top 4-5 pick you're sol unless you'd like to reach for RD 2 heads for your first round pick.

By your logic, you're telling me you would take Chris Johnson with the 9th pick or the next tier RB instead of a Tom Brady or Drew Brees at that point for this season? Rodgers is long, long gone...
Around the end of the first round you always had someone picking a QB. Typically it was Peyton, but sometimes it was Brady. But it was 1 QB taken at the END of the first round. Foster/Rice/McCoy should be taken ahead of every QB!
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:11 PM   #59 (permalink)
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Why is it stupid?
Yea wtf?! He has over 5k in passing yards thats horrible
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:11 PM   #60 (permalink)
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That is the one of the most ridiculous things I've read, but to each his own.

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On the fact that you don't have half of the premiere fantasy QBs hurt or under-performing this year. And if you are drafting a QB in the 1st round based on "it's a passing league now" you will have other QBs make the jump in statistics (i.e. potentially Matt Ryan) and close the gap. 1 year does not make a trend. Look at 2010 or prior and you will see what I mean.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:14 PM   #61 (permalink)
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It's not that it doesn't exist it's that nobody is following it this year. I'm willing to bet that relative QB ratings are back to their historical norm.
Wait.. what?..

The days of the lone RB are nearly done and over with. Welcome to the era of the passing game. You can't honestly think that the passing era is going away. Can you?.. If anything it gets better and better. It's the evolution of the game.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:15 PM   #62 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by HighEndHits View Post
Around the end of the first round you always had someone picking a QB. Typically it was Peyton, but sometimes it was Brady. But it was 1 QB taken at the END of the first round. Foster/Rice/McCoy should be taken ahead of every QB!
Ah, ok that I understand and fully agree with. You made it seem like a QB shouldn't be drafted in the first at all. Gotcha.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:19 PM   #63 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Whodatiz View Post
That is the one of the most ridiculous things I've read, but to each his own.
2010 Stats with 6pt Passing TD league. Difference from 1 to 6 is a whopping total of 31.6 points or less than 2pts/game. So what happens if any of the following occurs: Peyton is Peyton, Rivers and Vick bounce back, Stafford is now a top 5 QB, Eli improves or Matt Ryan makes the jump. You have way more QBs that are putting up "Elite" stats.

Tom Brady 355.01
Michael Vick 348.21
Aaron Rodgers 346.32
Peyton Manning 336.45
Philip Rivers 330.19
Drew Brees 323.41
Matt Ryan 291.69
Josh Freeman 291.43
Matt Schaub 284.46
Eli Manning 284.4
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:22 PM   #64 (permalink)
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I'm with going QB first overall based on the settings. 1/2 a point per completion is HUGE. You are talking 5-10+ points per week in the bag before anything else comes into play. QB's in this league should be posting 20-30+ points every week easily.

Now because it's PPR a case can be made for going with an elite pass-catching RB first overall. So you can make a case for guys like Rice, Foster, etc. at number one. But even with that on a good day those guys are looking at 20-30 points. That's just the low end of what a QB could post under these settings. A guy like Rodgers or Brees goes out and throws 2 touchdowns on 10-15 completions and he's already breaking 20 points before you start totaling up yardage stats.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:22 PM   #65 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking4Alpha View Post
Wait.. what?..

The days of the lone RB are nearly done and over with. Welcome to the era of the passing game. You can't honestly think that the passing era is going away. Can you?.. If anything it gets better and better. It's the evolution of the game.
That's why there is more relative value in a top RB than a top QB. Less top RBs and more top QBs.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:25 PM   #66 (permalink)
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I'm with going QB first overall based on the settings. 1/2 a point per completion is HUGE. You are talking 5-10+ points per week in the bag before anything else comes into play. QB's in this league should be posting 20-30+ points every week easily.

Now because it's PPR a case can be made for going with an elite pass-catching RB first overall. So you can make a case for guys like Rice, Foster, etc. at number one. But even with that on a good day those guys are looking at 20-30 points. That's just the low end of what a QB could post under these settings. A guy like Rodgers or Brees goes out and throws 2 touchdowns on 10-15 completions and he's already breaking 20 points before you start totaling up yardage stats.
Yea. Well last round and a half and Ill let everyone see my team
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:25 PM   #67 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by HighEndHits View Post
Around the end of the first round you always had someone picking a QB. Typically it was Peyton, but sometimes it was Brady. But it was 1 QB taken at the END of the first round. Foster/Rice/McCoy should be taken ahead of every QB!
Your argument is valid in leagues where points aren't awarded for completions and/or passing TD's are only 4 points vs 6. Your point about injury also breaks the argument for taking RB's early. Last year it was AP or Foster. McCoy popped up. Rice is a good option as well. But, after those guys. What RB is a cowbell back that's a threat to hit 20 total TD's? It's all a crap shoot, and I'd prefer to have my biggest point total coming from the best protected position...
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:27 PM   #68 (permalink)
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[QUOTE=ssbledsoe;3251128]Your argument is valid in leagues where points aren't awarded for completions and/or passing TD's are only 4 points vs 6. Your point about injury also breaks the argument for taking RB's early. Last year it was AP or Foster. McCoy popped up. Rice is a good option as well. But, after those guys. What RB is a cowbell back that's a threat to hit 20 total TD's? It's all a crap shoot, and I'd prefer to have my biggest point total coming from the best protected position...[/QUOTE]

Truth, in both of my drafts today I scooped A-Rod and Stafford. On auto pick lol
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:27 PM   #69 (permalink)
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That's why there is more relative value in a top RB than a top QB. Less top RBs and more top QBs.
But WAY more volatility with RB's. More injury risk. RBBC, ie how many carries will Tate steal from Foster, etc
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:28 PM   #70 (permalink)
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I'm with going QB first overall based on the settings. 1/2 a point per completion is HUGE. You are talking 5-10+ points per week in the bag before anything else comes into play. QB's in this league should be posting 20-30+ points every week easily.

Now because it's PPR a case can be made for going with an elite pass-catching RB first overall. So you can make a case for guys like Rice, Foster, etc. at number one. But even with that on a good day those guys are looking at 20-30 points. That's just the low end of what a QB could post under these settings. A guy like Rodgers or Brees goes out and throws 2 touchdowns on 10-15 completions and he's already breaking 20 points before you start totaling up yardage stats.
Brees in his BEST year ever had 47 more completions than Stafford or 23.5pts which is less than 1.5pts a game in relative value. The sixth most completions was Romo and that would be equal to a grand total of 3.8 more pts a game. A lot less in relative value than what one of the top 3 RBs would give you.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:32 PM   #71 (permalink)
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But WAY more volatility with RB's. More injury risk. RBBC, ie how many carries will Tate steal from Foster, etc
Agreed, but I always am able to pick a really good producing QB in round 4 or 5 where you won't typically get one of the top RBs there.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:34 PM   #72 (permalink)
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Brees in his BEST year ever had 47 more completions than Stafford or 23.5pts which is less than 1.5pts a game in relative value. The sixth most completions was Romo and that would be equal to a grand total of 3.8 more pts a game. A lot less in relative value than what one of the top 3 RBs would give you.
With a lot more yard and touchdowns. Completions was only one factor. Plus it's not just stats it's everything. The sure thing week to week in this league is a QB because of the settings. Also assuming this is a snake draft it will be a heck of a long time between picks if you pick first. If most teams are thinking the same thing lots of the top Quarterbacks would be gone by the next pick. Drafting based on your position comes into play, better to get the surefire elite QB and rest easy.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:35 PM   #73 (permalink)
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Drafting based on your position comes into play
Yes and that's why using the #1 overall pick on a QB is even worse.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:37 PM   #74 (permalink)
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WHO DAT NATION


1. (1) Drew Brees
(NO - QB)

2. (20) DeMarco Murray
(Dal - RB)

3. (21) A.J. Green
(Cin - WR)

4. (40) Darren Sproles
(NO - RB)

5. (41) Steve Smith
(Car - WR)

6. (60) Fred Davis
(Was - TE)

7. (61) Pierre Garcon
(Was - WR)

8. (80) Pierre Thomas
(NO - RB)

9. (81) Seattle
(Sea - DEF)

10. (100) Rashad Jennings
(Jac - RB)

11. (101) Pittsburgh
(Pit - DEF)

12. (120) Curtis Lofton
(NO - LB)

13. (121) David Akers
(SF - K)

14. (140) Daniel Thomas
(Mia - RB)

15. (141) Kendall Wright
(Ten - WR)

16. (160) Pat Angerer
(Ind - LB)

17. (161) Jacquizz Rodgers
(Atl - RB)

18. (180) John Skelton
(Ari - QB)
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:37 PM   #75 (permalink)
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How many times have you won a championship based on your strategy/logic? Be honest.

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Yes and that's why using the #1 overall pick on a QB is even worse.
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