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Old 09-09-2013, 04:36 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Longterm value in Vintage Cards

Obviously, prospecting tends to be the way people make money quickly...of course, there is also a fair amount of risk.

How about Vintage cards? I haven't been collecting long enough to notice longterm trends. How consistent (or inconsistent) are vintage card profits? Can you expect a fairly steady growth or decline (i.e. 5.0% gain / year)?

For example, taking the '56 Mantle, PSA 3 values rest at about 270-300. Go back 5 years, were the prices any different? How about 20 years?

It would be interesting to see a graph of various vintage card values, but I doubt anyone has one.
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Old 09-09-2013, 09:55 AM   #2 (permalink)
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I don't know. But I have been wondering how vintage cards will hold value as the fans of the players on the cards age out of ... life itself. I am interested in the cards and players of my youth. How many non Baby Boomers will desire a Mickey Mantle card, 20 years from now? Essentially what injected money into baseball cards is the Baby Boomers growing up and wanting to spend money on cherished objects of their youth....creating the big boom in cards.

Sometimes I think baseball card collectors want the cards to be "investment grade" more than they actually might be.

I also wonder this a lot lately. In one way, the supply of vintage has gone way up. No, the amount of cards still in existence is actually the same. Very occasionally a lot will be discovered and enter circulation, but this is now a rare event. Everyone knows baseball cards might be worth money, so no one throws them out without checking with someone first, or putting 20,000 junk wax cards on Craigslist for a silly price.

But in the 21st Century, potential customers of cards have access to scores of sellers of most cards, simultaneously, whenever they want. You no longer have to repeatedly visit shops or card shows to find that last '59 high-number you need ... it is now on eBay 24/7/365. This access to supply effectively increases supply, in terms of resulting prices.

I think vintage cards will always be desired objects. There are kids today just getting hooked on Coca-Cola who will want 19th century Coke artifacts when they have money to spend as adults. But how much desire = demand = prices there will be, again, I don't know.
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Old 09-09-2013, 09:59 AM   #3 (permalink)
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I'm 15, I hate prospecting. It's a vicious, boom or bust cycle. What will fuel the vintage market is kids like me that are few & far between that have been introduced to this hobby by their fathers, uncles, grandparents, etc. (My dad gave me his small collection and has inspired me to finish the '61 Topps set.) I am determined to keep this hobby alive 20 years from now and I hope that in 15-20 years from now I can pass it on to my kids.
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Old 09-09-2013, 10:04 AM   #4 (permalink)
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"The Hobby" will never go away, no matter how many bitter types write screeds about it's imminent demise. People love baseball, and they love baseball cards. So there will always be a manufacturer to make baseball cards for them.

But The Hobby is two hobbies. One is baseball cards, and the other is money. It's so easy to love The Hobby if you focus on the former and ignore the latter, but so many 'collectors' don't do that and, they demand of the manufacturer that there be a way to profit off their hobby, instantly, not decades out.
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Old 09-09-2013, 10:13 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by base set View Post
"The Hobby" will never go away, no matter how many bitter types write screeds about it's imminent demise. People love baseball, and they love baseball cards. So there will always be a manufacturer to make baseball cards for them.

But The Hobby is two hobbies. One is baseball cards, and the other is money. It's so easy to love The Hobby if you focus on the former and ignore the latter, but so many 'collectors' don't do that and, they demand of the manufacturer that there be a way to profit off their hobby, instantly, not decades out.
Yes, I completely agree. The "Hobby Of Collecting Baseball Cards" will never die.
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Old 09-09-2013, 12:44 PM   #6 (permalink)
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VCP will go back that far.

a 56 mantle in PSA 3 sold for right about the same in 2006 as it does today.

The real increase has been in higher grades. For example a PSA 8 sold for about 2200-2500 in 06 and today brings about 3k+

I think the trend is that higher grade collectibles are bringing more money as there are fewer of them around. I know its the case with comics and cards
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Old 09-09-2013, 10:30 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by base set View Post
"The Hobby" will never go away, no matter how many bitter types write screeds about it's imminent demise. People love baseball, and they love baseball cards. So there will always be a manufacturer to make baseball cards for them.

But The Hobby is two hobbies. One is baseball cards, and the other is money. It's so easy to love The Hobby if you focus on the former and ignore the latter, but so many 'collectors' don't do that and, they demand of the manufacturer that there be a way to profit off their hobby, instantly, not decades out.
Well said, I completely agree.
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Old 09-10-2013, 12:42 PM   #8 (permalink)
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The organized collecting hobby started in about 1935. I don't think it will end anytime in the next 50 yrs. Baseball is the National Pastime and cards will always be collected. I have seen a ton of younger collectors, after collecting the newer stuff, venture back to the vintage. And vintage isn't as much about prospects and the ups and downs that go with it. However, it is where a lot more discretionary income is spent. The older you get the more expensive the toys become!!

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Old 09-10-2013, 07:08 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I only PC Vintage... I grew up in the 80's and Collect stuff from 50 and 60's

Vintage has been drying up and will keep doing so IMO

Buying a nice mike trout or kyrie Irving is cool

But they will sign stuff for next 50 years...

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Old 09-10-2013, 08:06 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Vintage HOF rookie cards are my kryptonite!
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Old 09-11-2013, 03:13 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I have noticed that some of the vintage rookies have gained value on a yearly basis. But you also have to realize, unless you got the card for free you're not getting much profit. Sure, its great to sell a card for more then what you paid for but if you factor in inflation and how long its been since you acquired the card your profit margin may be minimal.
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Old 09-13-2013, 06:21 PM   #12 (permalink)
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I've found that the higher graded older stuff has increased in value quite a bit. I think for a lot of people, they collect cards as kids, then stop, and eventually start again when they're older and can afford the cards they couldn't when they were a kid. At least, that's where I'm at. I've been putting together a PC of Boston rookie cards and old HOF's. Some of my favorite cards are guys from the 70's and 80's that I can remember watching and hearing about from my older brothers. It's still funny to me that 80's are considered vintage now =).
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Old 09-15-2013, 02:50 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Vintage is the way to go. I buy and keep all my vintage. People like me and most the people on this board as well......... Eventually there will be a priemium on even low grade Mantles, Maris, Arron, Mays, Ryan and so on!
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Old 09-16-2013, 10:16 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Default Vintage

I restarted collecting baseball cards in 2005 (after a 13 year hiatus), and only bought vintage baseball through 2011. In that time, I saw prices go up even during the recession. I mostly buy ungraded vintage (vg-ex or ex condition) for my personal collection, but every once in a while I will sell some to buy some other cards. I almost always seem to make a little money on vintage or at least break even.
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Old 09-21-2013, 07:05 PM   #15 (permalink)
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There will always be demand for the all-time greats.

Personally, I think that at some point the whole obsession with grading is going to wear off, and the prices of PSA 9/10 cards will drop significantly.

But there will always be demand for good looking cards (i.e. in the PSA 5/6/7 range) at a reasonable price.
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Old 09-22-2013, 07:36 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mfw13 View Post
There will always be demand for the all-time greats.

Personally, I think that at some point the whole obsession with grading is going to wear off, and the prices of PSA 9/10 cards will drop significantly.

But there will always be demand for good looking cards (i.e. in the PSA 5/6/7 range) at a reasonable price.
This won't happen, with any collectible, condition, is the most important thing. There will always be collectors, that want the finest example, of whatever they collect.(and these high grade cards, are the ones that see the highest jump in value over the years) Now, PSA and BGS may go to the wayside, with a new grading company, coming in, that takes over a huge marketshare of the grading industry, but this section will always thrive.
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Old 09-22-2013, 11:57 PM   #17 (permalink)
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This won't happen, with any collectible, condition, is the most important thing. There will always be collectors, that want the finest example, of whatever they collect
That is true to some extent.

BUT...at some point people are going to realize how corrupt the grading industry is, as well as the extent to which the grading companies have inflated grades for their high-volume submitters. After all, the difference between a PSA 8 and PSA 10 is generally not visible to the naked eye...yet a PSA 10 may sell for 10x a PSA 9 and 100x a PSA 8. At some point I think those spreads are going to narrow.
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