WED, MAR 21 2007 | RSS Feed

Market Report!

by Chris


MARKET REPORT FOR 03/21:
 
Sorry these reports have not been very frequent...hopefully we will find time to do the write ups more consistently.
 
BASEBALL:
Starting in Mid April..UD will be implementing their new distribution program. It is basically geared towards preventing any dumping of product on ebay and a way for UD to monitor where their products are going. Basically...you can order if you're a store front from your distributor. If you're a collector...you can still get your product through your local hobby shop. With all that said...again..there will be plenty of product to go around once the program starts so please don't feel like there is any pressure to have to get orders in. Here's what we see happening in BB. With the 2007 Topps Series 1 Fiasco...there will be a lot of attention on 2007 Topps 2 BB. Whether they pull some more tricks or not, 2007 Topps Series 2 BB will be a big WINNER. As long as it has Daisuke Matsuzaka and ALSO the Japanese Pitcher for the Yankees as regular Base Cards....That will easily add $15 and $5-8 to each Box. Thats an added $20+ value per Topps Series 2 BB. Its similar to 2001 baseball when Pujols and Ichiro drove 2001 BB. This will be a very good year for 2007 Baseball products because the 2 Japanese players will command big money...even the base brands will have value added.
 
Keep an eye out also on future releases of Tri Star and also Just Minors. Both companies are stepping up their releases with content that the traditional companies cannot keep up with. It much easier for a Tri-Star to adapt to change than UD or Topps. The smaller companies may not take away market share since the production numbers are so small but they are getting noticed by the collectors since the breaks are excellent. Most importantly...the VALUE is there when you go to sell the singles on ebay. We are hearing preliminary info on a few new products from Tri star and Just Minors that will BLOW you away...stay tuned...
 
We've been touting the 2004 Products such as 2004 Elite Extra Edition and 2004 SP Prospects for over 2 years now...even when they were $50-65 boxes..we kept pushing everyone to put some away if you could....Now the pricing is starting to move up but don't feel like you missed out....even at current levels...THESE ARE GOING HIGHER. We believe that these 2 products will be as sought after as any Bowman Draft Product in the past and even surpass the past frenzy of 2005 Bowman Best BB and 1993 & 1994 SP Baseball. There are so few cases and boxes left unopened and there are so many Rookies that will continue to come out. The player content is so deep into the draft. Although P.Hughes is driving it now...during the course of the year...we believe there will be several players who will continue to jockey for position as the driving force of these products. You can potentially see someone getting hot and being a $1000 card....there may be several $300-$500 auto rookies...very similar to the way 1998 Leaf Rookie & Stars Baseball was with the short prints...Don't miss the boat on these.
 
Here's some other random BB notes:
2007 Topps Finest BB is a good buy at these prices...this will be a $1000 case in a month after it dries up and the Redemption Rookies are announced. The Dice K will be a $300-$500 + card initially. 2006 Topps 52 Rookies BB will slowly keep moving up during the year. This could be a sleeper with 3 Autos per Box and loaded with 300+ Rookies...The big sleeper will be 2006 UD Future Stars Baseball. It is basically where 2004 SP Prospects was several years back. This is one to put aside now and just watch it climb slowly....even if you break it now..you can still constantly sell off Rookies for several years...2006 Tri star prospects baseball is the product of the year and still a great break for the price. Compare the Retail which has 1 Auto per Box at $35 range....you get 10 autos in the Hobby but rather than paying $350...you're getting it for $150...everyone who has opened this product knows that it is not only a fun break but also a great breaking product. The Beckett has not caught up yet to the pricing. For example...The K.Clemens SP books at $50 yet sells for over $300 on ebay anytime one is posted. What this will mean is that there are 5-10 other cards that will continually get up arrows every month which will then drive the product higher....watch and see...
2006 Bowman Draft Picks Baseball is still one of the best cases to buy right now for the price point....at $700 range...it will be a $1000-$1200 Case at some point just like all the previous Bowman Draft Cases...It will only take 1 player to make this move up...this is the time to buy....2006 Bowman Chrome Baseball has taken a $100 jump in the past few days...watch this go higher also...2006 SPX BB is a great break as long as the Exquisite cards keep bringing back $175 per card..That gets you back about $1200 of the $1750...leaving you the rest of the Case for $550...The hottest market right now is the closeout market...you're starting to see all the older products ( that are selling at 50-75% of original prices) moving up. Since there are so few releases now in BB. Any value are in the older products...now that they are getting short..prices are moving up. Keep an eye on the following as they have at least 50% more upside: 2005 DK ,2005 Prime Patches, 2005 Donruss Champion, 2004 Spx, 2005 UD Heroes, 2005 UD Origins, 2005 & 2006 Topps Heritage, 2005 Donruss Signature, 2006 Fleer Greats Game, 2006 Fleer & Tradition, 2005 Absolute Update....just to name a few
 
On the presell side...The one to watch is 2007 Topps Triple Threads BB...better content than last year...early High end Baseball almost always goes up as the year goes on...this could go up another $1000+ from where it is now...
 
FOOTBALL:
2006 FB is still a very strong seller. We think that the 2006 FB will keep selling even in 2007 as collectors keep going back for last year amazing rookie class. It will be like the 2003/04 Bskt...Even after 2004/05 bskt came out...everyone kept buying the 03/04 Bskt...As more of the players start...the 2006 FB products will really jump. The offseason is the best time to lock in any items as they will move up higher around September as people start to speculate more on the 2007 FB season. 2006 Exquisite FB and 2006 National Treasures FB are both products that will move up on the high end products....pretty much any 2006 FB is a solid bet. Some that stand out are 2006 Bowman Chrome FB at the $80 range..2006 Flair Showcase FB at the $50 range...2006 UD legends FB at the $65 range...2006 Fleer Ultra FB and 2006 Topps Draft Picks FB at the $35 range...2006 Rookie Debut FB...2006 Turkey Red FB...etc....these are all Value plays...2006 SP Authentic and 2006 Contenders FB are also great high end items to put away for the collector who does not want to speculate on 3 or 4 box Cases....
 
2007 FB sales really don't pick up until after the Draft. Usually the very early products like Sage and Press pass do extremely well if the rookie class pans out. You can't even find any product from last year and if you do..they are several hundred a Box from 2006 FB. Early 2007 FB does very well..especially the Playoff/Donruss products...then it usually slows down from July-Sept...keep an eye on the early FB such as Prestige FB...
 
We are hearing some noise that 2006 Topps Paradigm FB orders will be extremely cut..maybe even by 50%...more info to come as we get it...if the content is good when it finally comes out...this may be the sleeper..better than Exquisite and Treasures...
 
BASKETBALL:
THIS IS GOING TO BE THE YEAR FOR 2007/08 BASKETBALL...I think the Manufacturers realize that also...watch for limited allocations and raised factory prices. Topps has already raised the price on their 2006/07 Topps Finest bskt from last year. Even with the higher cost..this is going to be a HUGE winner. It will be the first product with the Redemption cards for 07/08 Bskt. There will also be AUTOGRAPHED Draft Pick Redemption cards....If you're going to make a play...the 2006/07 Topps Finest bskt is the one to start with. Its always loaded but even more this year than ever. Watch all the early Sage and Press Pass bskt products all sell well also....
 
HOCKEY:
Little by Little...each of the 2005/06 HK products are disappearing and moving up....First it was 2005/06 SP Authentic...then 05/06 Ultimate HK....now 05/06 The Cup HK...soon...Rookie Update, Hot Prospects...SPX...UD2... Ultra....they will all move up...Put away what you can now....buy what you can now on the cheaper ones that are left....and hold onto whatever you can...05/06 may not be the best Rookie crop of all time...but it's got 2 players that are great...more importantly though...1 Player who is the best in the game....S.Crosby will drive all products through the roof...you will see $5000 one day on Cup HK...maybe in 6 mo...maybe 1 Year...it will happen...
 
06/07 UD SP Game Used HK took a lot of people by surprise..I don't think anyone expected it to be so strong...lets hope future UD releases will continue to load up their higher end items...GU HK is loaded....
 
GOLF:
Golf continues to sell very well....This is a great time to reload if you can on 2001 UD SP Authentic Golf Cases with the Tiger Rookie autos...These will disappear one day and be $1200 cases..$100 boxes...All the other products in 2003 and 2004 are all dry and anything with a possibility of a Tiger Auto keep moving up...





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